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PPAI Concluding Report

This report focuses on understanding and predicting drought across different spatial and time scales. It addresses questions related to the causes of drought, the likelihood of a break in the drought, future trends, the impact of temperature trends on drought, and the changing frequency/severity of drought in a changing climate.

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PPAI Concluding Report

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  1. U U G G O O R R H H D D T T DecadalVariability ClimateChange ENSO ExtremeEvents MJO Nowcasting PPAI Concluding Report Proposed focus: DROUGHT US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  2. PPAI Concluding Report Proposed focus: DROUGHT Diagnosis & prediction of drought across space & time scales Scientific challenge: DECADAL VARIABILITY Examples of societally relevant questions: • What are the leading causes of the current drought? • What is the likelihood for a break in the drought this year? • Can we expect more/worse drought over the next 10 years? • How much are temperature trends exacerbating the drought? • What happens to frequency/severity of drought in a changing climate? US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  3. PPAI WG Suggestion Decadal Climate Variability WG: * Focus on tropics – esp. Pacific - Role of ENSO in drought - Role of ENSO in US prediction skill - Role of ENSO in hurricane development * Tasks would include studies of predictability & experimental predictions for tropical Pacific variabilitycharacteristics * Leverage ongoing decadal predictability experimentsat GFDL & NCAR; experimental decadal predictions fromENSEMBLES Societally relevant question (e.g.): “ Can we expect more/stronger El Nino events inthe next 10 years?” US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  4. PPAI Goals • Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability at sub-seasonal to centennial time scales • Improve provision of climate forecast information, particularly with respect to drought and other extreme events • Foster research and development of prediction systems of climate impacts on ecosystems and hydrology • Enable use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  5. Goal 1: Understanding Predictability Activities: • Characterize current predictability and prioritize associated research challenges for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (Goddard) • Paper(s) on drought prediction across timescales and/or intersection between decadal variability and climate change (Delworth, Hall ??) • Propose WG on Decadal Variability of Tropics (Mehta + PPAI) Activities: 3-5 years & beyond • Advise on Quasi-Regular process for the assessment of prediction skill (Mason) US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  6. Goal 2: Improved provision of climate forecast information Activities: 1-3 years • Special session at Fall AGU 2006 on ‘Improving Credibility of Climate Predictions’ • Propose CMEP activity focused on drought (Meehl) Activities: 3-5 years & beyond • Coordinate with COPES Modeling Panel and the COPES-TFSP on the development of a unified days to decades prediction strategy to be implemented by 2015 (Kirtman) US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  7. Goal 3: Ecosystems and Hydrology Activities: 1-3 years • Make connections with networks of ecosystems researchers, such as National Phenology Network and Vegetation Dynamics Groups (Redmond; Koster) • Coordinate with GEWEX on hydrology/water resources issues, in particular scoping potential process study on land-atmosphere interaction relevant to drought maintenance (Koster) • Add ecosystems or hydrology person to panel US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  8. Goal 4:CLIVAR science & decision support Activities: 1-3 years • Implement US CLIVAR Applications Interface Postdoctoral Program (Goddard & Redmond) • Become more proactive with “intermediaries”, e.g. contacts at meetings, teleconference invitations (PPAI) Activities: 3-5 years & beyond • Promote and help implement USC-AI post-doc program (PPAI) • Encourage multi-agency support for development of web-based information delivery and decision support tools • Coordinate and prioritize efforts to downscale climate information and forecasts, emphasizing responsible provision and use of high-resolution information US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  9. Research Activity proposed by PPAI • Drought: Understanding, predicting and projecting changes • Methodology—CMEP analyses of multi-model datasets (unforced control runs, 20th century simulations, 21st century scenario projections) • Drought session in decadal workshop, April, 2007 • Drought Workshop – CMEP session: spring 2008 • Considerations: Drought processes and timescales (seasonal/interannual for individual droughts, decadal/centennial for statistics/changes in drought; past/present/future) • Drought impacts (water resources, ecosystems, land surface) US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

  10. Ties to other US CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups: 1. Drought Working Group 2. POS: decadal variability and predictability of droughts (role of ocean in drought, natural variability vs. anthropogenic climate change aspects of drought) 3. PSMIP: drought processes represented in models, effect of systematic errors, model improvements to better represent drought processes US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI

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