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The case study of the Maaswerken A negotiation model for the Grensmaas project Prof. Jan Rotmans Pieter Valkering Prof. Anne van der Veen Jörg Krywkow In collaboration with De Maaswerken
OUTLINE • Introduction • * The Maaswerken project • * Our aims and objectives: interlinked IA-ABM model • Conceptual models • * Stakeholder behaviour • * Integrated River Model • * Stakeholder-environment interaction • Maaswerken Negotiation Model • Conclusions
THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PROJECT • Characteristics General characteristics: 1. River engineering project 2. Initiation in 1997 3. River length ~150 km 4. Budget ~ 0.5 billion EURO Goals: 1. Flood control 2. Improvement of the navigation route 3. Nature development 4. Gravel extraction A river management strategy: - Deepening and broadening - Lowering the flood plains - Creating side channels - Embankments
Non governmental Stakeholders • Environmental Uncertainties: • Different stakeholder perspectives and opinions Alternatives Reactions • THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PLANNING PROCESS • A complex problem Policy maker (national / provincial level) Alternatives Targets Approach Maaswerken
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES • Develop a combined Integrated Assessment – Agent Based Social Simulation Model to: • Construct integrated scenarios taking into account the influence of stakeholders with multiple interests and different stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty • Understand better stakeholder perspectives and the mechanism of perspective changes • Identify river management strategies that are ‘robust’ and sustainable
WHAT ARE THE INGREDIENTS? 1. Model of stakeholder behaviour 2. Model of the river environment 3. Concept of stakeholder - environment interaction
Goals • safety • nature • hindrance • costs STAKEHOLDER AS A COGNITIVE AGENT Perception of environment Agent Perception of stakeholders Belief • Uncertainty • .. Norms Preferenced River Management strategy
Stakeholder goals Floods Recurrence time of floods Recurrence times of flood damage Discharge Rec_time(Qhigh) Exc_time(Qregular) Seasonal discharge Average monthly discharges Inundation Inundation durations Nature Nature area Ecosystem distribution Drought damage (qualitative) Yearly discharge peaks Groundwater Change in GLG, GHG Load Strategy Hydraulic schematization Hydraulics Stage - discharge Strategy Agriculture Area of expropriation Crop depression factors Geographic information DEM Land use type Sediment layers Costs Net monetary costs Hindrance Gravel extraction amount CONCEPTUAL INTEGRATED RIVER MODEL
STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 1 Stakeholders - Agent Based Social Simulation Model River environment - Integrated River Model
STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 2 River Management Strategy NORMCHANGE New state of the world State change, norm change strategic level Implementation of measures IRM Negotiation operational level Strategy proposal Stakeholder expectations Compare togoals Belief up-date Goal update Evaluation: acceptance yes/no ABM Initial world Surprises (floods) New insights
MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 1 What it is: A tool / model that can be used to simulate the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders Main purpose: Elicitation of stakeholder goals and beliefs as a dynamic process Input: * River engineering strategy * A formal representation of stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty Output: * Possible values for decision-making criteria * Stakeholder satisfaction
MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 2 Representation of stakeholder goals Satisfaction level curves
MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 3 Representation of stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty Uncertain model parameters Climate change scenario: Current, low, middle, high Morphology: low erosion, high erosion, sand dunes and gravel banks Fraction high vegetation growth (hydraulic roughness) Cost parameters: Extraction costs, gravel density, ..
MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 4 Impression of results
CONCLUSIONS • Starting from a descriptive viewpoint, aiming to develop a computer simulation model describing the interacting stakeholder - river system .. • We developed a negotiation model that allows stakeholder to display their goals and perspectives on uncertainty on the basis of concept of cognitive agents • Work is still underway of incorporating this knowledge in a formal cognitive agent description with Neg-O-net • By simulating the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders we will: • Elicit stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty as a dynamic process • Be able to develop integrated scenarios for river management including possible stakeholder influence in defining river management strategies • However, drastically different river management strategies result from norm changes at the strategic level and these can not be simulated by investiging negotiation at the operational level only.