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IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS. Huseyin Ozdemir a , Ulas Im b , Markakis Kostandinos c , Tugba Agacayak d , Alper Unal d , Tayfun Kindap d , Maudood Khan e

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IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS

Huseyin Ozdemira, Ulas Imb, Markakis Kostandinosc, Tugba Agacayakd, Alper Unald, Tayfun Kindapd, Maudood Khane

aBahcesehir University, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul, TURKEY

bBogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY

cAristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics, Thessaloniki, GREECE

dIstanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY

eUniversities Space Research Association NASA Marshall Square Flight Center, Huntsville AL., USA

outline
Outline
  • Introduction
  • Episode selection
  • Trajectory analysis
  • Emissions modeling
  • Air quality modeling results
  • Discussions and conclusions
research objectives
Research Objectives
  • Identify the reasons for high PM levels in Istanbul
  • Quantify effect of Istanbul emissions on regional air quality
  • Method:
    • Comprehensive high resolution anthropogenic emission inventory
    • Models-3 modeling framework
episode
Episode

January 13-17, 2008

trajectory analysis
Trajectory Analysis

Autumn

Spring

Summer

Winter

Forward trajectory method by Pettersen (1956)

emission inventory
Emission Inventory
  • 92 x 57 km area with 2 km grid spacing
  • Temporal resolution on monthly, weekly and diurnal processing
  • Compiling the emission inventory (bottom-up methodology)

- Residential and industrial combustion

- Energy sector

- Maritime sector

- Solvents use and coal extraction emissions

emission inventory1
Emission Inventory
  • High quality geographical information (GIS)
  • Mapbasic 9.0 programming language
  • Mapinfo 9.0 GIS software
  • 39 chemical species
schematic diagram of the emission processor
Schematic diagram of the emission processor

(Kostandinos et al., 2009, submitted)

chemistry and transport modeling
Chemistry and Transport Modeling
  • The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 4.6
  • Three domains (on lambert conformal projection)

- Europe in a 163×150 grid system of 30 km res.

- Balkan region in a 140×155 grids domain of 10 km res.

- Istanbul in a 92×57 grids domain of 2 km res.

- 20 vertical layers

  • The first three days - spin-up period
summary
Summary
  • The PM10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the observations with an average of 30%.
  • Uncertainties between model results and observations
  • Lacking of temporal profiles
  • Meteorology may introduce large uncertainties
  • Static boundary conditions may introduce high uncertainties
  • Performance evaluation for meteorology model results are underway
  • For future work we are planning to improve emissions data