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IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS. Huseyin Ozdemir a , Ulas Im b , Markakis Kostandinos c , Tugba Agacayak d , Alper Unal d , Tayfun Kindap d , Maudood Khan e

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  1. IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS Huseyin Ozdemira, Ulas Imb, Markakis Kostandinosc, Tugba Agacayakd, Alper Unald, Tayfun Kindapd, Maudood Khane aBahcesehir University, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul, TURKEY bBogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY cAristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics, Thessaloniki, GREECE dIstanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY eUniversities Space Research Association NASA Marshall Square Flight Center, Huntsville AL., USA

  2. Outline • Introduction • Episode selection • Trajectory analysis • Emissions modeling • Air quality modeling results • Discussions and conclusions

  3. Istanbul

  4. Research Objectives • Identify the reasons for high PM levels in Istanbul • Quantify effect of Istanbul emissions on regional air quality • Method: • Comprehensive high resolution anthropogenic emission inventory • Models-3 modeling framework

  5. Observations

  6. Episode January 13-17, 2008

  7. Trajectory Analysis Autumn Spring Summer Winter Forward trajectory method by Pettersen (1956)

  8. Modeling Domain

  9. Emission Inventory • 92 x 57 km area with 2 km grid spacing • Temporal resolution on monthly, weekly and diurnal processing • Compiling the emission inventory (bottom-up methodology) - Residential and industrial combustion - Energy sector - Maritime sector - Solvents use and coal extraction emissions

  10. Emission Inventory • High quality geographical information (GIS) • Mapbasic 9.0 programming language • Mapinfo 9.0 GIS software • 39 chemical species

  11. Schematic diagram of the emission processor (Kostandinos et al., 2009, submitted)

  12. Chemistry and Transport Modeling • The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 4.6 • Three domains (on lambert conformal projection) - Europe in a 163×150 grid system of 30 km res. - Balkan region in a 140×155 grids domain of 10 km res. - Istanbul in a 92×57 grids domain of 2 km res. - 20 vertical layers • The first three days - spin-up period

  13. MODELING RESULTS

  14. MODELING RESULTS

  15. MODELING RESULTS

  16. Summary • The PM10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the observations with an average of 30%. • Uncertainties between model results and observations • Lacking of temporal profiles • Meteorology may introduce large uncertainties • Static boundary conditions may introduce high uncertainties • Performance evaluation for meteorology model results are underway • For future work we are planning to improve emissions data

  17. Thank you.

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