Earthquake Prediction Research [EPR] & Disaster Management Strategy  - M.V.Ramanamurthy .

1. Earthquake Prediction Research [EPR] & Disaster Management Strategy  - M.V.Ramanamurthy.

2. What is going on now? • What is needed? • Why it is difficult? • What is to be done? • Recent predictions….

3. PRINCIPLE METHODS IN EPR • 1) Astronomical: • Stellar constellation (planets & stars) Moon, a Celestial body & Earth in straight line Turning points of the moon’s relative motion to the earth • Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [TGFR] Data can be computed in advance [much in advance]

4. 2) Geomagnetic field change: • Change in Geomagnetic field occurs 6-8 m before EQ. - Continuous monitoring Geomagnetic field is required • Audio, video & spectral disturbances just 10 to 20 hrs before earthquake occurrence. - Lattur & Andamans EQs: phone complaints increased. - In Turkey, Japan & China: mobile phones malfunctioned 50 to 100 minutes before EQ - Telephone exchange data useful: in land, mobile. [6-8 m]

5. 3) Triangular network GPS stations: • Area change ratio from Simultaneous & continuous Geodetic measurement is converted to annual change ratio [ppm]. • Early warning should be issued if the change [in XY, XZ or YZ plane] is > 3ppm: • I stage warning: 4 - 9 ppm • II stage warning: 10 ppm • III stage warning: >10 ppm +ve sign indicates tension & - ve sign indicates compression [3-6 m]

6. 4) Differential SAR interferrometry: • Differential Interferrometry - Provides relative measurement, few cm or even less movements in vertical direction. • Small elevation changes caused by the buckling of the earth’s surface prior to EQ can be measured. • For monitoring [pre, co & post seismic] Earth’s Crust – Dynamic Grid 4 satellites or more needed. • NASA 7 d repeat L- band InSAR 4 satellites with 10 m resolution, okay. • Long-term measurement of interseismic strain accumulation [to <1 mm/yr resolution] [1-2 m]

7. 5) Thermal InfraRed: • A huge isolated temperature increasing area appears far from Epicenter before EQ [2-6 deg C wrt peripherals]. • The thermal spectral resolution of 0.12-0.5 deg C is high enough for EQ precursor detection. • Increase of Brightness values Temperature & Temperature Increasing Area [IBvT&TIA]: direct function of magnitude. IBvT & TIA: • 1-3 L sq. km: Ms. 5. • 4-7 L sq. km: Ms > 6. • > 7 L sq. km: Ms. 7. [1d to2 m]

8. 6) Animal abnormal Jump frequency [budgerigars] • Budgerigars is a kind Parrot which is used for EQ precursor detection. • 600-700 Vs >2000 jumps p/d • No Information on: [direction,epicenter,Mag,t] [7-13 d]

9. 7) Gravity method: • In deformation zone, on earth’s surface subjected to displacement or movement of the earth’s gravity center. • Given, at least 3 measuring points of earth’s gravity force, triangulation procedure allows locating the epicenter [5 – 6 d]

10. 8) Crustal stress measurement: • Before EQ crustal strain pulse signals. • Relative change of crustal stress reflects seismicity, • Hence crustal stress value is adopted instead of absolute value. • Measured by a crustal stress transducer, the strain in 3 directions on a level underground. • Principal strain = (crustal stress – crustal strain * elastic modulus ) • Its direction is towards epicenter. [1 – 3 d]

11. 9) Infrasound Waves: [ISW]: • Abnormal Infrasonic wave signals has Ultra low frequency (<1 Hz), longitudinal vibrations in the air, propagate very long distances, without significant attenuation and distortion. • ISWs released from fault fractures [rock destruction] prior to large EQs at epicenter. • Infrasonic sound measured in a star topology with optimum array configuration using: • low frequency microphone or by • high frequency barometer] sensors. A high, 1.250 mV [10Pa sonic P] • EQ Ms >7-7.5 • EQs: Precursors 0.004-0.1 Hz. [1-9 d]

12. 10) Geoelectric pulses: • Normal pulse is smoothly round curve, but before EQ: abnormal. • Amplitude of the abnormal signal determines the magnitude. • Procedures are same as of ISW [1 – 9 d]

13. Chineese Predictions and Error Range: Year T- Err Mag-Err Loc-Err 1996 Nil Nil Nil 1996 Nil Nil Nil 1996 39d,late Ms 0.1 Nil 1997 Nil-13hr Ms 0.2 Nil 2000 Nil Ms 0.1 Nil 2001 Nil Nil 0-0.1deg 2002 Nil Ms 0.3 Nil 2002 Nil Nil Nil 2003 2-4 d Ms 0.5 125km, Off

14. Precursors Prediction 1 • Imminent EQs: • Accomplishing envisaged endeavor: • Integrated Cardinal Strategy. • Comprehensive Data Integration, then Synthesize. • Multi [disciplinary, component], Poly Dimensional data encompassing multiple of multiplicative complexities, • Use of multiplicative [additive] & divisive [subtractive] methodologies etc. • Comprehensive Integration to differentiate the multi data set precursors reliable response [more information than can be derived from single data set, techniques more supportive, more confident] • Integration of multiple data sets and composite digital image generation.

15. Computerized image processing involving data 2 and feature extraction techniques [geometrical, structural, spectral, statistical] with 2 or more, Image data fusion, based on [pixel, feature, decision] pixel], algorithm should be in line with scientific doctrine, a continuous processes to refine and improve the visual image exploitation by human image interpreters. • Decisions levels on fusion techniques are knowledge logical, syntactical, contextual] and identity [statistical inferences] based global seismic policy, Public education, seismic proof & ts safe planning and constructions, public early warning reach out communications, real time emergency services disaster relief and management. • Global Team Effort. • Integrated Global Strategy.

16. 3 • India should participate and with innovative contribution [patent] • Shimla Summer [Seismic] Capital • EQ [Physics & Engineering] = EQ Technology • Study: Physics, Geophysics, Engineering Physics, Astrophysics, Astro-mechanics, Remote Sensing.. • NASA: • Global Earthquake Satellite System [GESS] • France [Dec 2004] • DEMETER [Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions] • Microsatellite series.

17. The scientific purpose of the mission is to: 4 • Study the ionospheric disturbances related to seismic activity, • Study the ionospheric disturbances related to human activity, • Study the pre- and post-seismic effects in the ionosphere, • Contribute to understand the mechanisms generating those disturbances, • Give global information on the Earth's electromagnetic environment at the satellite altitude. • Pre, Co & Post[seismic] study. • Seismic Audit: construction, codes, education on precursors. • Kangra EQ [1905] mag >8: one day before all Zoo animals highly disturbed [recorded] • Indian Plate is going below Erasian plate [raising: Himalayas &Tibetan plateau]

18. Modeling • Data should speak not converse • Mathematics • Precursors Prediction • Geology [process] holds the key • Prediction by single method is not advisable • Comprehensive integrated strategy. • Mathematics does not obey nature's laws and nature is not governed by mathematics

19. SUMMATION • The Principle Prediction Precursor Techniques consists of a three-tire composite system: [In advance] • I. Long range [Macro] : • Astronomical [years before] • Electrical resistivity variations in seismically active areas • Geomagnetic field change [6-8 months] • GPS [3- 6 months] • II. Medium range [Meso]: • Radar [1-2 months] • Thermal IR [1 day–2 months] • Electrical resistivity variations alerted and active [3 – 4 months] • Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [15 days – 2 months]

20. III. Short range [Micro]: • Budgerigars [a kind of parrot] Jump frequency [7-13 days] • Gravity [5– 6 days] • Infrasound [1-9 days] • Geoelectrical pulse [2-9 days] • Crustral strain [1-3 days] • Geomagnetic field change affects telecommunications [50-100 minutes to few hours and months]

21. Cost Benefit Analysis. • High Damage Vs low EPR R&D. • R&D investment is very low. • India too can afford: If there is [A Will, Capability, Dedication] • 4 years robust globally predictive R&D and implementation $ 3.5L [Rs 1.5 Cr] • Global Earthquake Satellite System [GESS]: • 20 years InSAR: 36hr Vs 35d $ 400-500 m • 5 yrs R&D, 15 yrs mission operation Rs. 1700 to 1800 Cr Geosynchronous Satellite System (Rs. 90 Cr/yr) • [at present not within the range, too expensive] • First satellite [5 yr R&D, 15 mission operation] $ 1-2 b. • 10 Satellite constellation $ 8-10 b. • world wide Infrasound system: cheap. $ 1L, Rs. 50 L. • Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty [CNTBT]: • 60 infrasound stations net work, only maintenance.

22. DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

23. Initially, precursors identification routine Long and Medium range predictive techniques, irrespective of areas are seismic or aseismic, followed by Short range on alert in seismic or aseismic narrowing down the imminent event. None may follow logical sequence. Likelihood that medium and short range could be in sequence, long range may or may not be an indicator. On alert Short-Range Tools must be in place and vigilant in the long and/or medium ranges in seismic or aseismic-alerted in the regions for continuous surveillance and monitoring.

24. Our need of the hour is “an automated on line surveillance system” • To predict Imminent Earthquakes Precursors Detection • At least 3 days before”, should possibly be accomplished. • Constituting an “Earthquake Research Authority” [ERA] act as a nodal agency to coordinate with recently forming National Disaster Management Authority [NDMA]. • Researchers as and when they notice imminence of an event, should report to the ERA only, who intern can deal with the situation as deemed fit confidentially, including conveying to the public at an appropriate time, so that panic situation is avoided.

25. The NDMA should ensure that State & District Level [S,D[DMAs] be in place. • Researchers as and when they identify long range indicators in an area, it should be confidentially be informed to the ERA, to be passed on to N,S[DMAs]. • When the medium range precursors are identified in the same area, then alert should be passed on to all the three DMAs through ERA to NDMA. • Finally, when the event is identified in the short range in the same area, then ERA to coordinate with all the three DMAs to get not only be alerted, but also should be in a position to convey to the area people concern about the imminent event, from time to time, with the latest updates and to get prepared to face the situation • Without any panic, a proper communication channel is to be devised. Strict highest level of confidentiality should be maintained by all concern, till the event prediction is fit for conveying to the public.

26. Medical Precurssors • Abnormal cell growth precursor: Positron Emission Tomography – computerized tomography [PET-CT] • Color shades: chemical levels of cell activity. • Exact location of abnormal cell activity [invisible on CT]. • A complimentary, not competing image modalities

27. My Medical Forecast • Signal Processing Doctrine principles are same in any scientific pursuit, including interpretation: • Cardiac [ECG] or • EQs [seismogram] • In fact signal processing technique is adopted in medical applications: • Automatic processing of the foetal MCG, Cardiac diseases estimate … • A precursor sensor [like a wristwatch] on human body to monitor on selected intervals Vital organs functioning and connected to a centralized computerized Database, gives warning signals [replacing the existing periodical preventive medical checkups, including scans, blood tests etc.]

28. SUGGESTIONS • EPR should be taken up by Academic, Professional and Research Institutes with collaborative projects with centres where such know-how exists. • Global coordinated team effort deeper insight with tenacity. • A false alarm can cause panic, hence special care is needed. • Cardinal aim is narrowing down the event predictive process by employing the Prediction Precursor Techniques of a three-tire system 1) Macro2) Meso3) Micro levels • With the help of Space and Ground-borne systems • In developing on line automated surveillance and warning systems, we need a continuous monitoring techno- commercially viable system

29. SUGGESTIONS • Symptomatic approach Vs Scientific doctrine • Supernatural science needs to be pursued, parallelly • United Nations University’s Associated Institutions • Research Centers of Global Scientific Excellence in various countries • Student participation in Masters and Doctoral programs • UN, World Human Rights Commission and NGO’s contribution

30. Thank you for your kind attention • Any Questions….???? • Contact address: • M.V.Ramanamurthy68-1-3/1, Netaji Street, Ashok Nagar,Kakinada - 533 003,Dist. East Godavari, Andhra Pradesh. India. • Ph: 0884 - 2371649.Email: rmy_pranav@sancharnet.in