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Scenario Development. Biol. 595 Oct. 28, 2009. Land-use Framework. The Land-use Framework establishes three desired outcomes for Alberta: A healthy economy supported by our land and natural resources; Healthy ecosystems and environment ; and

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scenario development

Scenario Development

Biol. 595

Oct. 28, 2009

land use framework
Land-use Framework

The Land-use Framework establishes three desired outcomes for Alberta:

  • A healthy economy supported by our land and natural resources;
  • Healthyecosystems and environment; and
  • People-friendly communities with ample recreational and cultural opportunities.

“Balance”

regional plans
Regional Plans
  • Intended to paint a picture of how a region should look over the next50 years;
  • Articulate desired outcomes for aregion, which should reflect andintegrate provincial policies and objectives set by Cabinet;
  • Set thresholds to manage the cumulative effects of development at the regional level;
  • Consider cross-boundary issues.
regional plans1
Regional Plans

The plan will describe what must be done to achieve the regional vision and outcomes, and it will set quantitative, measurable targets and thresholds in this regard.

The plan will also identify trade-offs and choices that will be made in the region to balance economic development with environmental and social considerations, and it will provide rationale for these choices.

economic objectives
Economic Objectives

Energy scenarios:

  • Low: 1.5-2.0 million barrels/day (mbd)
  • Medium: 4.0-4.5 mbd
  • High: 6 mbd

Forestry:

  • Maintain current AAC

Minimize the cost of environmental protection

environmental objectives
Environmental Objectives
  • Maintain biodiversity through:
    • A zonation approach (triad)
    • Industrial best practices
    • Access management
    • Combined approach
  • Protect airsheds and watersheds through the setting of regional air and water thresholds which serve as limits on industrial cumulative impacts.
defining the base case
Defining the Base Case
  • Define spatial and temporal scale
  • Identify outcomes of interest
  • Define indicators and RNV (where appropriate)
  • Identify processes for inclusion in the model:
      • Key drivers, external drivers, secondary processes, excluded processes
  • Parameterize the model assuming that current policies, processes and trends continue as they have in the past.
defining alternative scenarios
Defining Alternative Scenarios
  • Identify the key management levers to be manipulated and the amount of change to be applied.
  • Package related management actions into composite scenarios
  • Iterative refinement of scenarios
scenarios guiding principles
Scenarios: Guiding Principles
  • Cover the full scope of the problem
  • But . . . also aim for parsimony:
    • Increased complexity = increased time, problems, and difficulty interpreting and communicating results
  • Maximize learning:
    • Identify important contrasts
    • Keep land management context in mind
decision support
Decision Support
  • Develop and run the base case and alternative scenarios
  • Identify and bound key uncertainties
  • Analyze and summarize results across all runs:
  • Synthesize and communicate results:
    • Key learnings
    • Explain tradeoffs; what is possible and what is not
    • What are the pros and cons of alternative actions