Legacies of the 20th Century: History and Modern Asia

1. History and the 21st Century Legacies of the 20th century and the lost decade

2. Announcements Course is open for evaluations. Final lecture on Wed; sections DO meet this week Access to all lectures, open from this week for review Review session, pre exam: May 12, 6:00 pm, Maxwell Dworkin, G125 Final exam: May 15 (Sat), 2pm, A-14: Emerson 104. E1851: Emerson 305

3. Japan and Asia/non-West • Attractive idea of solidarity with Asia • prewar roots: Okakura Tenshin, others • Postwar efforts: • Normalization with Korea, China • Aid to SE Asia, Africa • Ongoing legacies of mistrust • Comfort women • Nanjing massacre • POWs • textbooks

4. Asian relations today • Good neighbors? • Economic integration, unprecedented • Cultural connections, likewise • Political cooperation on key issues: N. Korea • Yet, shadow of past present • Textbook revisions: downplaying wartime acts • Visiting the Yasukuni shrine • A dangerous game of domestic, int’l politics, among Korea, China, Japan

5. Political issues: the 1990s in haiku クリントン 一人の間に 七総理 During the time Of just one Clinton Seven Prime Ministers

6. Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties • LDP loses majority, 1993, briefly to coalition • Breakaway elements coalesce with portions of JSP, others, to Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) • LDP rebuilds, in alliance to Komeito (CGP), under Koizumi’s leadership • “Neo-liberal” agenda: financial deregulation (1995 “big bang” 1996; 2005 postal privatization”) • Labor deregulation from 1999 • Education deregulation • Neo-nationalism, as well: Yasukuni visits

7. Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties • Post Koizumi floundering of LDP (in a sense destroyed by Koizumi) • Liberal Democrats vs. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) • Will DPJ popularity persist? • Hatoyama on defensive, backing off of promises

8. Social trends, issues: 1990s21st century • New vocabulary: “divided society” (kakusa shakai); “new poor” (nyuu pua): produces political backlash • Growing socio-economic inequality: winners/losers • Income: ambiguous evidence • Soaring “poverty index”: proportion with income <50% of national average • Very low ratio of income of wealthiest 20% to poorest 20%, and not changing rapidly.

9. Japan: income ratio Bottom 20% Top 20% US Income ratio Bottom 20% Top 20% 13.5% Japan Poverty index US Poverty index 13.7% Contradiction of high “poverty index” and low ratio of rich/poor incomes

10. Aging Society

11. Land prices boom Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America Prelude: The bubble era, 1985-90 • Strong GNP: up 55% • over the decade • Gold leaf sushi wrap

12. Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America The bubble bursts: 1991-->

13. Economy, 2003-2008 • Relatively strong GDP growth: • 2003-2007 annual growth • averages over 2% • Unemployment falls under 4% • Exports rise • Especially • to China

14. Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 1) 1. Systemic crisis: the bankrupt “1940s system” • system that once worked, • -developmental state • -interfirm networks as dynamic • -long-term labor commitments • Stopped working? -rigid state role • -ineffective finance system • -inflexible corporate organization

15. Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 2) 2. Policy failures drag down a gradually changing but still-viable system • Slow response to financial crisis • Tax increase choked off recovery in ‘98 • Eventually, through trial and error, got it right

16. Lost decade lessons for America? negative

17. Lost decade lessonsfor America? positive Robert Feldman, Morgan Stanley Research report, 11/27/2008