History and the 21st Century

1. History and the 21st Century Legacies of the 20th century and the lost decade

2. Announcements Course is open for evaluations. Final lecture on Wed; sections DO meet this week Access to all lectures, open from this week for review Review session, pre exam: May 12, 6:00 pm, Maxwell Dworkin, G125 Final exam: May 15 (Sat), 2pm, A-14: Emerson 104. E1851: Emerson 305

3. Japan and Asia/non-West • Attractive idea of solidarity with Asia • prewar roots: Okakura Tenshin, others • Postwar efforts: • Normalization with Korea, China • Aid to SE Asia, Africa • Ongoing legacies of mistrust • Comfort women • Nanjing massacre • POWs • textbooks

4. Asian relations today • Good neighbors? • Economic integration, unprecedented • Cultural connections, likewise • Political cooperation on key issues: N. Korea • Yet, shadow of past present • Textbook revisions: downplaying wartime acts • Visiting the Yasukuni shrine • A dangerous game of domestic, int’l politics, among Korea, China, Japan

5. Political issues: the 1990s in haiku クリントン 一人の間に 七総理 During the time Of just one Clinton Seven Prime Ministers

6. Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties • LDP loses majority, 1993, briefly to coalition • Breakaway elements coalesce with portions of JSP, others, to Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) • LDP rebuilds, in alliance to Komeito (CGP), under Koizumi’s leadership • “Neo-liberal” agenda: financial deregulation (1995 “big bang” 1996; 2005 postal privatization”) • Labor deregulation from 1999 • Education deregulation • Neo-nationalism, as well: Yasukuni visits

7. Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties • Post Koizumi floundering of LDP (in a sense destroyed by Koizumi) • Liberal Democrats vs. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) • Will DPJ popularity persist? • Hatoyama on defensive, backing off of promises

8. Social trends, issues: 1990s21st century • New vocabulary: “divided society” (kakusa shakai); “new poor” (nyuu pua): produces political backlash • Growing socio-economic inequality: winners/losers • Income: ambiguous evidence • Soaring “poverty index”: proportion with income <50% of national average • Very low ratio of income of wealthiest 20% to poorest 20%, and not changing rapidly.

9. Japan: income ratio Bottom 20% Top 20% US Income ratio Bottom 20% Top 20% 13.5% Japan Poverty index US Poverty index 13.7% Contradiction of high “poverty index” and low ratio of rich/poor incomes

10. Aging Society

11. Land prices boom Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America Prelude: The bubble era, 1985-90 • Strong GNP: up 55% • over the decade • Gold leaf sushi wrap

12. Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America The bubble bursts: 1991-->

13. Economy, 2003-2008 • Relatively strong GDP growth: • 2003-2007 annual growth • averages over 2% • Unemployment falls under 4% • Exports rise • Especially • to China

14. Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 1) 1. Systemic crisis: the bankrupt “1940s system” • system that once worked, • -developmental state • -interfirm networks as dynamic • -long-term labor commitments • Stopped working? -rigid state role • -ineffective finance system • -inflexible corporate organization

15. Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 2) 2. Policy failures drag down a gradually changing but still-viable system • Slow response to financial crisis • Tax increase choked off recovery in ‘98 • Eventually, through trial and error, got it right

16. Lost decade lessons for America? negative

17. Lost decade lessonsfor America? positive Robert Feldman, Morgan Stanley Research report, 11/27/2008