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Grouping Countries by National Models of Technological Learning. Tatyana P. Soubbotina Consultant, S&T Program HDNED Presentation to STI Thematic Group November 10, 2005. [email protected] Practical Questions:.

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Grouping Countries by

National Models of

Technological Learning

Tatyana P. Soubbotina

Consultant, S&T Program

HDNED

Presentation to STI Thematic Group

November 10, 2005

[email protected]


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Practical Questions:

  • Should the WB develop some standard guidelines on S&T assistance to client countries?

  • Should these guidelines be customized for groups of developing countries with similar STI capacity-building needs?

  • Should the WB rely on one of the existing classifications of countries by S&T capacity or develop some new approach?


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Composite Indices of S&T Capacity:

  • UNDP – Technology Achievement Index

  • UNIDO – Competitive Industrial Performance

  • Index

  • WEF – National Innovative Capacity Index

  • WB – Knowledge Economy Index

  • UNCTAD –Innovation Capability Index

  • Francisco Sagasti – S&T Capacity Index








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Different S&T indices can be used depending on the task

  • Because they all have different focuses:

  • UNCTAD – underlying technological capacity (focus on inputs – education and R&D)

  • UNIDO– revealed technological capacity in industry only (focus on manufacturing competitiveness)

  • UNDP – revealed technological capacity across the economy (focus on broad diffusion of old and new technologies)

  • WEF – institutional and policy environment for innovation

  • WB KAM – the advantage is in its flexibility,

  • select indicators at your own risk!


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Considerations in selecting S&T capacity indicators

  • Select input or output indicators depending on whether you want to measure technological effort or technological achievement , underlying (potential) technological capacity or revealed S&T capacity.

  • Absolute size of inputs can matter no less than input intensity because of economies of scale and critical mass effect (e.g. Number of researchers or Total R&D expenditure vs. their shares in population and GDP)

  • Some indicators reflect present-time capacity, others reflect expected but still uncertain future capacity (e.g. Mean years of education of adults vs. Secondary and tertiary enrolment rates)

  • Indicators of knowledge sales (e.g. Share of high-tech exports or Receipts of royalty and license fees) reflect quality of knowledge rather than just its quantity (e.g. as reflected by Share of high-tech industries in MVA or Number of patent applications).

  • However, exports indicators should be compared to similar MVA indicators, because fast improvement in exports often reflects enclave FDI activities rather than national S&T capacity growth.



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All of these groupings focus on

S&T levels achieved or expected to be achieved by various countries, but fail to account for:

  • Different speed of S&T progress, and

  • Different sources of S&T progress.

That is what grouping countries by

models of S&T learning

can add


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Concept of “National technological learning”

National technological learning is the process of

creating or acquiring from foreign sources of

new (for this particular learner)

S&T knowledge & skills,

as well as

adapting, disseminating, and using those for

improving the technological structure of

national production and exports.


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National technological learning occurs at all levels

  • and implies acquiring different kind of

  • knowledge & skills, e.g. at the level of

  • national labor force – science, math, & engineering education & training + life-long learning,

  • enterprises & firms – learning to innovate by absorbing foreign and investing in own new technologies,

  • governments– learning to receive expert advice, develop S&T strategies and create enabling & stimulating conditions for national technological progress.


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Factors of national technological learning

S&T learning capacity

S&T learning opportunities

+

S&T co-operation

Knowledge generation capacity

Knowledge absorptioncapacity

Licensing

R&D

Internet

Education

Inward FDI

Capital imports



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“Crystals of S&T Learning” -graphical/statistical illustrations

  • Human capital accumulated / human capability for S&T learning (see indicators 11, 12, 1),

  • The most accessible opportunities for learning from foreign sources created by capital goods imports and FDI (indicators 9, 10),

  • The more demanding opportunities for learning from domestic and foreign sources through domestic R&D (indicators 2, 3),

  • The most demanding opportunities for learning through knowledge markets and international S&T cooperation (indicators 4, 5, 6),

  • Success in using S&T knowledge for improving technological structures of a country’s MVA and manufactured exports (indicators 7, 8).


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‘Crystals’ can ‘grow’, but only illustrations

in the right (learning) environment


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6 models of illustrations

national technological learning:

  • Traditionalist slow learning,

  • Passive FDI-dependent,

  • Active FDI-dependent,

  • Autonomous,

  • Creative-isolated,

  • Creative-cooperative.


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Traditionalist slow S&T learning illustrations

  • Relying mostly on traditional technologies,

  • low S&T learning capacity,

  • minimal S&T learning opportunities,

  • low international competitiveness,

  • high risk of further economic marginalization,

  • most urgent need of international S&T assistance.


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‘Crystals’ of illustrationssample Slow-Learning Countries


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Passive FDI-dependent learning illustrations

  • passively relying on FDI to bring in new technologies,

  • low S&T learning capacity,

  • no or week government technological strategy,

  • limited opportunities for technological learning,

  • high risk of losing in economic competition with poorer, lower-wage countries.


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Active FDI-dependent learning illustrations

  • relatively high S&T learning capacity,

  • active government strategy aimed at building national human capital and accelerating national technological learning from FDI,

  • active targeting of the most beneficial FDI,

  • much wider opportunities for technological learning from FDI,

  • lower risk of losing in economic competition with lower-wage but lower-skill countries.


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Crystals of sample illustrations

Passive and Active FDI-dependent learners


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Autonomous S&T learning illustrations

  • High S&T learning capacity and favorable international environment,

  • active government strategy aimed at building national human capital and accelerating national technological learning via open sources, foreign consultants, contract manufacturing, licensing, copying & re-engineering, own R&D, even outward FDI,

  • minimal reliance on FDI or international S&T cooperation,

  • aspiring to compete with technological leaders.


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Creative-cooperative S&T learning illustrations

  • Capacity for both, generating and absorbing S&T knowledge among the highest in the world,

  • global technological leadership in at least some niches of the global economy,

  • active government S&T strategy directly linked to global competitiveness strategy,

  • extensive R&D and efficient NIS,

  • active participation in and control over international S&T cooperation,

  • the fastest S&T learning.


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Creative-isolated S&T learning illustrations

  • High S&T learning capacity, but unfavorable international environment or isolationism,

  • limited opportunities for S&T learning from foreign sources,

  • aspiring to produce most of the needed technologies inside the country,

  • low international competitiveness of high-tech industries,

  • high risk of lagging further behind in technological and economic development.


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Sample crystals of illustrations

Autonomous, Creative-Cooperative, & Creative-Isolated learners


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‘Rules’ of national technological learning illustrations

  • National S&T learning requires a certain minimal stock of human capital and a favorable economic & institutional ‘learning environment’.

  • Government S&T policies and international aid should target both prerequisites.

  • Different models of S&T learning can be also seen as consecutive stages in the same country’s development (‘crystals’ are growing from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.).

  • But there are some policy choices, e.g. active FDI-dependent vs. autonomous and creative-isolated strategies.

  • The higher a country’s underlying S&T capacity, the broader its choice of S&T learning strategies.


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‘Tree’ of illustrationsnational technological learning

Human capital accumulation

Creative-cooperative

Autonomous

Active FDI-dependent

Creative- isolated

Aid supported

Passive FDI-dependent

Slow learning

Time


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5 major learning paths: illustrations

  • 1. From slow-learning traditionalism to passive and active FDI-dependent learning,

  • 2. From passive FDI-dependent to active FDI-dependent or autonomous,

  • From active FDI-dependent to more autonomous or creative-cooperative,

  • From autonomous to creative-cooperative,

  • 5.From creative-isolated to creative-cooperative learning.


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Prioritization illustrationsTable of Policies for Transitioning

from Non-learning Traditionalism to

Passive/Active FDI-dependent S&T Learning


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Prioritization Table of Policies for Transitioning from illustrations

Passive to Active FDI-dependent S&T Learning


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How to help the majority of illustrations

slow-learning countries?

  • What should be the main features of international aid-supported S&T learning?

  • What can be learned from previous international aid projects with S&T components?

  • What should be the role of the World Bank in these countries?


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‘Crystals’ assessment – illustrations

Modified indicators for SSA


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The advantages illustrations

of S&T Learning Models approach

  • compared to any S&T capacity indices are that it

  • Looks forward, helps predict future difficulties,

  • Allows for diversity of learning paths,

  • Underlines the importance of policy choices made by developing countries themselves.


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“First of all, I think that sense of assuming responsibility

[by developing country governments] is really critical.

We often talk about building institutions or building

capacity. And my feeling is that sort of suggests you

can come in like an outside contractor and bring

some bricks and mortar and you construct capacity.

It doesn't work that way.You grow it. Its got to be

indigenous. It's got to have indigenous roots.

You can fertilize it. You can water it. You can rip

the weeds out, which I think is part of fighting

corruption. Or you can help people do it.But

they need to do it themselves.”

Paul Wolfowitz on ‘capacity building’ vs. ‘capacity growing’

at his first Town Hall Meeting in the World Bank, 2005.


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School teachers and university professors responsibility

know the advantages of

active teaching and learning methods.

Should the World Bank aim to help

all client countries turn into

active learners

of modern science and technology?


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Models of S&T Learning approach is an alternative to responsibility

  • Regional models of development – e.g. East Asian vs. Latin American

  • “High-tech” model vs. low-tech “Latin” model


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“High-tech” success stories are obviously too different to be treated as one model

Source: W.F. Maloney. 2005. Patterns of Innovation. Innovation Policies II Regional Study, World Bank.


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Further improvements to ‘crystals’ indicators are needed, e.g.

  • A brain drain/brain gain statistics instead of ‘brain retention’ survey results

  • Taking into account strong economies of scale and ‘critical mass’ effect in R&D

  • A better indicator of benefits from participation in cross-border R&D cooperation

  • Building data bases for historical and sub-national crystals of S&T learning


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Practical application of needed, e.g.‘crystals’ assessment

  • Is the country’s S&T learning likely to be fast enough compared to its major competitors?

  • Is national S&T learning constrained mainly by the lack of human capital or the lack of learning opportunities?

  • Which additional learning opportunities could be available but are currently underused?

  • How successful is this country in using its S&T capacity for improving technological structure of its production and exports?


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‘Crystals’ assessment – needed, e.g.

Mauritius


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‘Crystals’ assessment – needed, e.g.

Malaysia


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Is there a need in an on-line interactive data base and an automatic graphing tool?

(similar to KAM)


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‘Crystals’ for further discussion: automatic graphing tool?Creative-cooperative leaders


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‘Crystals’ for further discussion: automatic graphing tool?high-income Slow learners


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‘Crystals’ for further discussion: automatic graphing tool?former Creative-isolated learners


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