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Impacts of La Niña & NAO on Washington DC Winters - Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011

Get insights on the influence of La Niña and NAO on winters in Washington, DC. Learn about temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns based on historical data and current ENSO forecasts. Explore the NOAA/CPC 2011-12 Winter Outlook and understand how these climate phenomena shape winter weather in the region.

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Impacts of La Niña & NAO on Washington DC Winters - Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011

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  1. Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011 Jared Klein LWX Climate Program Leader

  2. NOAA/CPC 2011-12 Winter Outlook(Updated outlook- mid November) Temperatures Precipitation The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, ENSO.

  3. Current State of ENSO Niño 3.4 Niño 4 Niño 3 Niño 1+2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  4. Current State of ENSO (cont.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  5. ENSO Forecast The majority of ENSO models predict the continuation of a weak to moderate La Niña at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter. International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society

  6. El Niño pattern that dominated the 2009-10 winter La Niña pattern that dominated last winter and so far this fall http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml

  7. El Niño pattern that dominated the 2009-10 winter La Niña pattern that dominated last winter and so far this fall http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml

  8. La Niña Winters and Temperature

  9. 1981-2010 NormalDJF Temp- 38.2°F La Niña Time Series La Niña Averages

  10. La Niña Winters and Precipitation

  11. 1981-2010 Normal DJF Precip- 8.48" La Niña Time Series 1981-2010 Normal DJF Precipitation (8.48”) La Niña Averages

  12. La Niña Winters and Snowfall

  13. 1981-2010 Normal Seasonal Snowfall - 15.5" 1981-2010 Seasonal Snowfall (15.5”) La Niña Time Series La Niña Averages

  14. Years with Above Normal Snowfall at DCA (>15.5”) since 1950 1- 56.1” (09-10) 2- 46.0” (95-96) 3- 40.4” (57-58) 3- 40.4” (02-03) 5- 40.3” (60-61) 6- 37.7” (78-79) 7- 37.1” (66-67) 8- 33.6” (63-64) 9- 31.1” (86-67) 10- 28.4 ” (65-66) 11- 27.6” (82-83) 12- 25.0” (87-88) 13- 24.3” (59-60) 14- 22.7 ” (77-78) 15- 22.5” (81-82) 16- 21.4” (62-63) 16- 21.4” (67-68) 18- 20.1 ” (79-80) 19- 18.0” (53-54) 20- 17.1 ” (64-65) 21- 16.8” (71-72) 22- 16.7” (73-74) +3 SD +2 SD +1 SD

  15. -NAO 500 mb height anomalies from the 30 snowiest months at Washington DC Assessment on the 2009-10 Winter NOAA Attribution Team (Hoerling et al. 2010)

  16. Questions/Comments? Jared.Klein@noaa.gov

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