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by Stephen P. D’Arcy and Richard W. Gorvett University of Illinois

Session C-5: ARIA Prize Paper CAS Spring Meeting May 2006 The Use of DFA to Determine Whether an Optimal Growth Rate Exists for a Property-Liability Insurer. by Stephen P. D’Arcy and Richard W. Gorvett University of Illinois Published in the Journal of Risk and Insurance , December, 2004.

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by Stephen P. D’Arcy and Richard W. Gorvett University of Illinois

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  1. Session C-5: ARIA Prize PaperCAS Spring Meeting May 2006The Use of DFA to Determine Whether an Optimal Growth Rate Exists for a Property-Liability Insurer by Stephen P. D’Arcy and Richard W. Gorvett University of Illinois Published in the Journal of Risk and Insurance, December, 2004

  2. Overview • Introduction • Dynamic Financial Analysis • Aging Phenomenon • Market Value of P-L Insurance Company • Optimal Growth Rate • Analysis of Results

  3. Dynamic Financial Analysis • An approach to modeling insurance companies • Solvency testing • Ratings • DFA models also allow managers to test various operational strategies

  4. Objective of Paper • Utilize a DFA model to determine the optimal growth rate based on • - mean-variance efficiency • - stochastic dominance • - constraints of leverage • Based on the latest version of a public access DFA model (DynaMo3) http://www.pinnacleactuaries.com/

  5. Aging Phenomenon • New business has a very high loss ratio, often in excess of the initial premium • The loss ratio then declines with each renewal cycle to the profitable point • Longer-term business has an even lower loss ratio, making it very profitable • A P-L insurer’s growth rate has a significant effect on profitability

  6. Market Value of P-L Insurance Company • Determining the market value of a hypothetical property-liability insurer is not a simple task. • Only a few P-L insurers are stand-alone companies that are publicly traded, allowing the market value of the firm to be observed

  7. Approaches to Determine Company Value • Fama-French model (three factor model) • r - Rf =  beta x ( Km - Rf ) + bs x SMB + bv x HML + alpha • SMB - small [cap] minus big • HML - high [book/price] minus low • CAPM • Multiple Regression (our method)

  8. Multiple Regression Approach • The market value of an insurer is measured by • - Policyholders’ Surplus • - Net Written Premium • (the size of the book of business) • - Combined Ratio and Operating Ratio • (profitability)

  9. Companies in Sample

  10. Regression Analysis

  11. Results of regression for each company separately

  12. Optimal Growth Rate Target Metric Net income over the projection period plus the terminal value of the company at the end of the five-year period

  13. Sensitivity Test • Assume several different growth rates within the range of reasonable values • Mean-Variance analysis • First-degree stochastic dominance • Second -degree stochastic dominance

  14. Mean-Variance illustration

  15. Operating Constraints • The optimal growth rate cannot be determined based on • mean-variance analysis • first- or second-degree stochastic dominance • Impact of adding constraints

  16. Constraining Premium-to-Surplus Ratios • The proportion of outcomes that lead to unacceptable premium-to-surplus levels can be added as a constraint in the maximization process.

  17. Comparative Statics • Initial state of the insurance market • Acuity of the aging phenomenon • Renewal rate • Starting interest rates

  18. Initial state of the insurance market

  19. Acuity of the aging phenomenon

  20. Renewal rate

  21. Starting interest rates

  22. DFA Model Characteristics • Implied rate change variable depends on - current market condition (mature hard, immature soft, mature soft and immature hard) • - targeted growth rate • - rate change impacts profitability • Potential impact on persistency (renewal rate) • - rate changes could impact persistency • - effect could vary by age of business • Managing growth rates • - DFA program uses constant growth rate • - managers likely to vary growth target based on market conditions • - need to modify DFA program

  23. Caveats • Models are simplified versions of reality • This DFA model deals with quantifiable risk only • Excludes the following risks • - A line of business being socialized • - Management fraud • - Catastrophic risks other than historical patterns

  24. Conclusions • Increasing the growth rate reduced statutory policyholders’ surplus and current net income, but increased both the future market value of the insurer and the volatility of results • The optimal growth rate for the modeled insurer varied from zero to 7.5 percent • Growth rates of 10 percent or higher generated unacceptable premium to surplus ratios too frequently • Low initial interest rates increased the incentive for growth • High initial interest rates lowered the optimal growth rate • Varying the other key parameters did not affect the optimal growth rate significantly

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