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Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado.edu Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. and Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports
Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” SLR bullets: *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100 *9% of Florida lost with 1-meter sea level rise When might 1-meter (3’ 4”) SLR occur??
The BIG Three *Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year *Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4thof SLR per year *Greenland& Antarctic Melt: ~1/5thof SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990sKey Study: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138
SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow, Insidious** impact Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in. Year Best Estimate 2010 8” - measured; rapid rate 2030 1’ 1” 20501’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter 21003’ 4”≈ equal to 1 meter Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________ **eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now!
Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100 *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100 About 1 million homes lost in Florida - NOT counting the 65% of Florida’s <1m-above-sea-level land set for development -- Insurance Industry Estimate Needed: a present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100 NYC Case Study:Super-storm Sandy
New York City (NYC) Case Study Super-storm Sandy:US Climate Change Teaching Moment Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 11’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 meter - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’ 3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100
Regional Sea Level Rise: 2091-2100 mean vs 1900, IPCC Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’
Super-storm Sandy and Human-caused Climate Change 80-90% of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1900) is due to we humans Part of 5°F above mean ocean Temp in Sandy-birth-area due to us Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy! Impossible to say how much. Some Solutions after Break
Solutions: Government Driven Renewable Energy:Govt. credits/subsidies needed - Renewables subsidy <50 B-$s/yr; coal, oil & gas subsidies >600 B-$s/yr Wind: cost less than coal; “30-coal-plant” Chinese farm Solar: rapid growth; Germany/European Union; China Geothermal/Hydro/Tidal/other; underutilized
Solutions in Private Sector; Insurance-Background Insurance Industry: largest; 7% of Global Economy “Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades ~40% of total payout funds Munich Reinsurance: largest insurer of Insurance Co.s concluded- in 1973 - there is: “insurance risk from human-caused climate change” Those that must know, do know
Climate Change activities, 52 countries; UC-Berkeley Study Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $95,000,000,000
Solutions: Insurance Industry ($s since 1970s)* Climate Change Mitigation Investmt., 24 Billion $s Public Awareness & Public Policy Initiatives, 31 Billion $s Financing Client Loss Prevention, Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation Projects, 57 Billion $$s - e.g., forest restoration in catastrophe-prone areas Climate Science: IPCC/Insurer Modeling, 21 Billion $s __________ * The Greening of Insurance, Science Dec. 14 2012, 1424-1425
Mangrove Reforestation, Japanese Insurance Co.: increased resilience to storm damages - carbon sequestration - company is carbon neutral since 2008
Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000 - Toyota Prius: ~$28,000 - Chevy Volt: ~$27,000 Electric Cars* - Ford Focus E: ~$30,000 - Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000 *Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts
Extra Slides: the following two slides may be useful background material for presenters and museum educators