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New Paths to Development: The rise of the South and South-South Integration

New Paths to Development: The rise of the South and South-South Integration. Piergiuseppe FORTUNATO - ECIDC UNCTAD, Geneva - April 5, 2011. Outline. 1. Changing trends . 2. 4. 5. 6. Differences within Developing Countries. The emergence of the South. Social Dimension.

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New Paths to Development: The rise of the South and South-South Integration

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  1. New Paths to Development: The rise of the South and South-South Integration Piergiuseppe FORTUNATO - ECIDC UNCTAD, Geneva - April 5, 2011

  2. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South Integration 3

  3. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South Integration 3

  4. Catching Up?

  5. Weathering the global crisis (growth rate of GDP, % change from a year earlier)

  6. China and the others…

  7. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South Integration 3

  8. (back)

  9. Developing Economies no Longer Perceived as High risk/Low return Public Debt as % of GDP Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on IMF World Economic Outlook, 2010, April

  10. Will the South be able to grow fast even without growing (debt fuelled) demand from the North? (cfr Arthur Lewis Nobel lecture) South-South could be the solution…

  11. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South Integration 3

  12. The Increasing Importance of the South to the South Trade FDI Aid

  13. Rising Share of South-South Trade on Global Trade Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics (2010), excluding transition economies

  14. Rising Share of South-South Trade on Global Trade Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics (2010), excluding transition economies

  15. South-South trade by region Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat.

  16. An example: Brazil Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat.

  17. Composition of Trade Flows Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat.

  18. Emergence of intra-industry trade and international production chains (e.g. South East Asia) Benefits fromspecializationandsophistication

  19. What you export mattersExport sophistication and growth

  20. Export diversification and Development I

  21. Regressions results (robust OLS)

  22. Rising Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Emerging Economies Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on UNCTAD Foreign Direct Investment database 2010

  23. The Rise of New Donors Rising AID from non traditional donors 26

  24. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South Integration 3

  25. Geographical Concentration of R&D Expenditure, 2007 Source: National Science Board (2010).

  26. Growing Technological Divide Between Developing Countries Patent applications per 100 000 people Source: World Bank (2009).

  27. Outline 1 Changing trends 2 4 5 6 Growing Divide within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South integration 3

  28. Poverty is following… Headcount poverty rates % of population living under USD 1.25 2005 PPP Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on Chen and Ravallion (2008).

  29. …But not Inequality Within Many High-growth Economies Gini coefficient Note: Gini coefficients for income (Brazil) or per capita expenditure (India, China, South Africa) Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth, OECD (2010) for China and World Bank (2009a) for Brazil.

  30. Why to worry about inequality??? Inequality may slow down growth Inequality may affect the mapping between growth and human development

  31. Outline 1 Changing Trends 2 4 5 6 Differences within Developing Countries The emergence of the South Social Dimension Policy Conclusions South-South integration 3

  32. Harnessing Better the Shift: The Challenges Deepen South-South integration Develop international production chains Prioritise social policies to address rising intra-country inequalities. Re-equilibrate global governance

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