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Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO

Regional Drought and Climate Services 2013 High Plains Drought Outlook and Assessment Forum July 24, 2013 Doug Kluck , Veva Deheza , Chad McNutt, Bethany Perry NOAA, Regional Climate Services & National Integrated Drought Information System. Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO.

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Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO

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  1. Regional Drought and Climate Services2013 High Plains Drought Outlook and Assessment ForumJuly 24, 2013Doug Kluck, VevaDeheza, Chad McNutt, Bethany PerryNOAA, Regional Climate Services & National Integrated Drought Information System Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO

  2. 2010-2013 Persistent Drought Setting the Stage • 3 years of drought • Intensified ‘12 and ’13 • Causation: • La Nina (southern U.S.) partially • 2011 predicted further south but not so extreme and long lasting • With rapid intensification it was difficult to prepare and respond in a timely manner

  3. Drought Response • Many service-providing entities in the region • NOAA centers/offices (e.g., National Weather Service) • NOAA core partners (State Climate Office, Regional Climate Centers, etc..) • Interagency partners (e.g., DOI, USDA) • State (e.g. KS Water Office), local, private, and NGO organizations • But, historically a lack of coordination in “real-time” response to evolving impacts of drought • The onset of the drought created an opportunity to coordinate a multi-faceted, regional response among multiple partners

  4. Setting the Stage: Purpose of the Meeting • What are current conditions? • What can we say about the drought continuing into the second half of 2013? • What can we say about long-term trends? • What are information needs going forward? In Kansas, Crippling Drought Paralyzes Crops Amy Bickel, The Hutchinson News Published: Jun 9, 2013, 9:37 AM EDT Associated Press Extended Forecast Not Favorable For Drought Improvement Across Western States July 18, 2013 By: Julianne Johnston, Pro Farmer Digital Managing Editor

  5. Outlook and Assessment Forums Short- to Medium- Range Forecasts Current Conditions Impacts & Vulnerability & Info Needs ENSO Impacts & Long-Term Trends

  6. NIDIS: Creating a drought early warning information system • Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006) • “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” • “better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

  7. Weekly Drought Assessments • Colorado • Water Availability Task Force • State Drought Plan: Impact Task Forces CO. Drought Assessment Group Early Warning and Risk Management Relationship Consensus recommendation to USDM author

  8. Midwest and Great Plains Drought Information Webinars • NOAA Regional Climate Services, Regional Climate Centers & State Climatologists • Since July 2012 (monthly) • Webinars include various topics • Outlooks, soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, etc… • Water Resources (big rivers) • Wildlife/Ecosystem impacts • Wildfire • Drought Monitor & Outlooks • USDA crop reports • All past Webinars are posted here: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php • To sign up go here: http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars May 24th, 2013 – nr Lamar, CO

  9. 2012 Drought Assessment • A comprehensive review of the 2012 drought situation, including: • Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological features • Socioeconomic and environmental impacts • Regional services provided • Lessons learned, best practices, and next steps for early warning • Being drafted, to be released in fall 2013

  10. What Caused the 2012 Drought? • 6 state study region (CO, WY, NE, KS, MO, IA) • Driest May –August on record • Immediate cause: lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture • No lifting mechanisms in late spring (May-June) • High pressure dominated • Dry begets dry at some point • No clear oceanic connections • Some correspondence since the late 90’s of dry tendencies • Not especially forecastable… http://drought.gov/media/pgfiles/2012-Drought-Interpretation-final.web-041013_V4.0.pdf

  11. Local Drought Monitoring • National Weather Service: Drought Information Statements (1 or 2/month) • Reservoir & Streamflow • Precipitation & Temperatures • Impacts • Outlooks • Partner Information July 22 nr Hays, KS RESERVOIR PERCENT FULL CHANGE KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE (NORTON DAM) 39.1% -9.4% ENDERS DAM 33.7% -1.3% SWANSON LAKE 31.9% -3.9% HARRY STRUNK LAKE 54.3% -15.3% http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=DGTGLD

  12. Discussion and Purpose of the Meeting • How has the drought impacted your operations? • What do you see as the greatest short-term challenges for you and the region? • What do you see as the greatest long-term challenges for you and the region? • What advice can we offer each other to help minimize the impacts from drought? • Are there specific types of information that would help in decision making?

  13. THANK YOU First attempt at drought early warning

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