1. Jamaica Probable Storm Effects 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge 0 0 0 The projection of the illustrations is Plate Carrée, a square grid of latitude and longitude. Resolution is 30 arc-seconds. North-South distances are true to scale. East-West distances are stretched 4.6% at 17 degrees North, and stretched 5.8% at 19 degrees North. All model results were calculated using great-circle distances based on the WGS84 datum. Points of Interest: 1. Montego Bay: intense shoreline development. Montego Bay 1 2. Kingston: Capital city and major port. 3. Port Esquivel: Oil terminal on shallow bay Jamaica 4. Rocky Point: Railway and bauxite terminal on shallow bay Kingston Port Esquivel 2 3 Note: Waves and surges for Points of Interest are reported from the nearest cell offshore. Rocky Point 4 Portland Bight Note: High-resolution studies have been done for Montego Bay and Kingston. See http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp/ N • This set of maps is part of Section 2 of the Atlas of Probable Storm Effects in the Caribbean Sea, which was sponsored by the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP), a joint effort of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). These maps are a result of new techniques for modeling storms and estimating the probabilities of storms, developed in part under the patronage of CDMP. Refer to the Atlas for explanatory materials. • WINDS represent sustained 1-minute winds at 10 m above the surface, and include both surface friction and topographic effects at a resolution of 30 arc-seconds. Friction factors derive from a Level I land-cover classification, • with water, forest and open land predominating. If using wind damage models or building codes • which internally include surface friction or topographic corrections, the nearest open-water wind • speed from one of these maps may be used as input. Careful judgement is advised in reading • and applying the values • SURGES include astronomical tide and setups from pressure, wind and wave, but not wave runup. Surges over land are shown as elevation above sea level, not water depth. • WAVES are the heights of wave crests above the storm surge level in open water. Shoreline effects do not appear at this resolution.

2. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge Wind Speeds 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Storm Category knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 150 125 kph 50 100 150 200 250 m/s Min 20 60 10 30 40 50 70 Max Winds 10-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 31 m/s 2. Kingston: 29 m/s 2 3. Port Esquivel: 29 m/s 3 4. Rocky Point: 28 m/s 4 N

3. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP WaveHeights Wave Surge 0 0 0 6 4 1 3 5 2 7 Meters 5 10 25 Feet 20 15 Min Max Waves 10-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 3.8 m 2. Kingston: 3.6 m* 2 3. Port Esquivel: 3.6 m 3 4. Rocky Point: 3.6 m 4 * Input data lacks sufficient detail. N

4. 19 N Surge Heights Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 1 2 3 4 6 5 Meters 20 15 10 5 Feet MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge 0 0 0 Min Max Surges 10-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 0.4 m 2. Kingston: 0.7 m 2 3. Port Esquivel: 1.6 m 3 4. Rocky Point: 1.1 m 4 N

5. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge Wind Speeds 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Storm Category knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 150 125 kph 50 100 150 200 250 m/s Min 20 60 10 30 40 50 70 Max Winds 25-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 41 m/s 2. Kingston: 39 m/s 2 3. Port Esquivel: 39 m/s 3 4. Rocky Point: 38 m/s 4 N

6. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP WaveHeights Wave Surge 0 0 0 6 4 1 3 5 2 7 Meters 5 10 25 Feet 20 15 Min Max Waves 25-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 5.1 m 2. Kingston: 4.7 m* 2 3. Port Esquivel: 4.9 m* 3 4. Rocky Point: 4.8 m* 4 * Possibly invalid:input data lacks detail. N

7. 19 N Surge Heights Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 1 2 3 4 6 5 Meters 20 15 10 5 Feet MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge 0 0 0 Min Max Surges 25-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 0.7 m 2. Kingston: 1.4 m 2 3. Port Esquivel: 2.8 m 3 4. Rocky Point: 1.9 m 4 N

8. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge Wind Speeds 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Storm Category knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 150 125 kph 50 100 150 200 250 m/s Min 20 60 10 30 40 50 70 Max Winds 50-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 49 m/s 2. Kingston: 46 m/s 2 3. Port Esquivel: 46 m/s 3 4. Rocky Point: 45 m/s 4 N

9. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP WaveHeights Wave Surge 0 0 0 6 4 1 3 5 2 7 Meters 5 10 25 Feet 20 15 Min Max Waves 50-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 6.1 m 2. Kingston: 5.1 m* 2 3. Port Esquivel: 5.8 m* 3 4. Rocky Point: 5.7 m* 4 * Possibly invalid:input data lacks detail. N

10. 19 N Surge Heights Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 1 2 3 4 6 5 Meters 20 15 10 5 Feet MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge 0 0 0 Min Max Surges 50-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 1.0 m 2. Kingston: 1.8 m 2 3. Port Esquivel: 3.9 m nearby, up to 4.2 m onshore to the northeast 3 4 4. Rocky Point: 2.5 m N

11. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge Wind Speeds 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Storm Category knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 150 125 kph 50 100 150 200 250 m/s Min 20 60 10 30 40 50 70 Max Winds 100-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 55 m/s 2. Kingston: 53 m/s 2 3. Port Esquivel: 53 m/s 3 4. Rocky Point: 52 m/s 4 N

12. 19 N Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP WaveHeights Wave Surge 0 0 0 6 4 1 3 5 2 7 Meters 5 10 25 Feet 20 15 Min Max Waves 100-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 6.9 m 2. Kingston: 5.7 m* 2 3. Port Esquivel: 6.6 m* 3 4. Rocky Point: 6.6 m* 4 * Possibly invalid:input data lacks detail. N

13. 19 N Surge Heights Ross Wagenseil for CDMP January 2000 1 2 3 4 6 5 Meters 20 15 10 5 Feet MILES DEGREES KILOMETERS 100 78.75 W 1 75.75 W 100 50 0.5 50 25 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr SELECT Wind 17 N CDMP Wave Surge 0 0 0 Min Max Surges 100-Year Return Time Jamaica 1 1. Montego Bay: 1.4 m 2. Kingston: 2.4 m 2 3. Port Esquivel: 5.0 m nearby, up to 6.1 m onshore to the northeast. 3 4 4. Rocky Point: 3.3 m N