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San Diego International Airport AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS. Board Presentation . Prepared for: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority. June 7, 2004 . Background. San Diego is the Only Major U.S. Airport that Operates With a Single Runway

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San diego international airport aviation activity forecasts l.jpg

San Diego International AirportAVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Board Presentation

Prepared for:

San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

June 7, 2004


Background l.jpg
Background

  • San Diego is the Only Major U.S. Airport that Operates With a Single Runway

  • Current Flight Volume Can Be Accommodated With Existing Runway Capacity, but the Ability to Handle Future Growth is Limited

  • SH&E Was Asked to Prepare Aviation Demand Forecasts to Estimate When San Diego International Airport (SDIA) Will Reach Its Runway Capacity Limits


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The SDIA Activity Forecasts Have Been Subject to an Extensive Process of Internal and External Review

San Diego CountyRegional Airport Authority

Federal Aviation Administration

Planning

Airside Operations

Airport Noise

Facilities Development

Site Selection Study Team

San Diego Air Traffic Control Tower

Southern California TRACON

Western Pacific Region(Richard Dykas)

Office of Operations Planning Performance Analysis(Don Guffey)Office of Aviation Policy & Plans(Roger Schaufele)

SANDAG

Population & Economic Forecasts(Regional Demographers)


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Passenger Airlines Represent the Primary Source of Demand Extensive Process of Internal and External Reviewfor Runway Capacity at SDIA

2003 Aircraft Operations

Scheduled Passenger Airlines

89%

Future Growth in Passenger Traffic and Airline Operations Will Represent the Driving Factor in Determining SDIA’s Ability to Accommodate Future Demand

Source: SDIA Airport Operations Department, Monthly Activity Report, December 2003


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Agenda Extensive Process of Internal and External Review

  • Aviation Activity Forecasts

    • Passenger Traffic

    • Airline Operations

    • Cargo Operations

    • General Aviation Operations

    • Military Operations

  • Runway Capacity and Delay Analysis

  • Forecast Conclusions


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AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Extensive Process of Internal and External Review

Passenger Traffic


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The Passenger Traffic Forecast Reflects 4 Key Elements Extensive Process of Internal and External Review

Market Characteristics

Past GrowthPerformance

Growth Drivers

Forecast Assumptions

Passenger Traffic Forecast


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Understanding the Characteristics of San Diego Passengers Extensive Process of Internal and External ReviewWill Influence the Forecast of Future Demand

Passenger Mix at SDIA

Local (96%)

Connecting

Resident (45%)

Visitor (55%)

Business (44%)

Non-Business (56%)

Domestic (98%)

International

Source: US DOT, O&D Passenger Survey, YE 3Q 2002; San Diego 1998 Customer Satisfaction Survey; San Diego 1998 Total Airport Experience Survey


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Avg. Annual Growth Extensive Process of Internal and External Review1980–2003

SDIA 4.9%

U.S. * 3.4%

Since 1980, San Diego Passenger Traffic Has Tripled

Annual Passengers at SDIA

Annual Passengers(In Millions)

200015.8 M

200315.3 M

5.1 M

* US growth based on preliminary 2003 traffic statistics from Air Transport Association

Source: San Diego Unified Port District Statistics, SAN Master Plan Update, and SH&E Analysis


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However, San Diego Passenger Growth Rates Have Been Tapering Downward

Passenger Growth Rates Over Consecutive 10-Year Periods

1980-2003

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority


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Slowing Growth in SDIA Passenger Traffic Can Be Traced to the Performance of the Economy

Average Annual Growth in Personal Income

1980-2000

Source: SANDAG; National Planning Associates


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Slower Growth in Air Visitors Has Also Contributed to Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIA

Average Annual Growth in SDIA Domestic O&D Passengers

Source: US DOT, O&D Survey


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WN Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIA = Southwest

HP = America West

Rapid Expansion of Low-Fare Carriers Has Stimulated Traffic Growth at SDIA – In 1990, Five Markets Had Low-Fare Carrier Service from San Diego

August 1990

WN

WN

WN HP

WN HP

WN

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


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WN Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIA = Southwest

HP = America West

SY = Sun Country

F9 = Frontier

B6 = jetBlue

SY

B6

WN

WN

WN

F9

WN

WN

WN

WN

WN HP

WN HP

WN

WN

WN

WN

WN

Currently, SDIA Receives Low-Fare Carrier Service to 17 Markets, Including New East Coast Destinations

May 2004

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


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In 2003, Low-Fare Airlines Carried 45% of SDIA Domestic Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIAPassengers

2003 Domestic Passenger Share at SDIA

Low-Fare Carriers

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority


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San Diego has a Higher Proportion of Low Fare Service than the U.S. as a Whole, but Low-Fare Carriers are Rapidly Gaining Share in the U.S. Market

Share of Non-Stop Seats by Low Fare Carriers

1990 - 2004

Pct of

Non-Stop Seats

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes


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SDIA’s High and Low Forecasts Reflect Differing Views of the Future

High and Low Forecast Assumptions


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SH&E Forecasts Unconstrained Passengers to Grow from the Future15.3M in 2003 to Between 27M and 33M by 2030

Annual

Passengers

Total San Diego Passengers

Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030)

SH&E High 2.8%

SH&E Low 2.2%

32.7 M

27.1 M

2003 Actual15.3 M

Sources: SH&E Analysis

San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB

Airport Economic Analysis (AEA), HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001


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Translating the Passenger Forecast into Aircraft Operations Requires an Assessment of Two Key Factors

AircraftOperations

Passenger Traffic Forecast

Future AircraftFleet Mix –Average SeatsPer Aircraft

LoadFactors –

Percent ofSeats Occupied


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Narrowbody Jets are the Predominate Aircraft Type in the Current Passenger Airline Fleet Mix at SDIA

Passenger Airline Operations by Aircraft Class

Base Year 2002

Jet

100-150 Seats

65.2%

Source: US DOT, T100 Database


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Factors that Will Influence the Future Fleet at SDIA Current Passenger Airline Fleet Mix at SDIA

  • Aircraft Size for Southwest Airlines, the Leading Carrier at SDIA,Will Not Increase

    • All aircraft orders are for the 137-Seat Boeing 737-700

  • jetBlue Is Expected to Increase Its Presence at SDIA

    • Currently serves SDIA with 160-seat A-320’s, the only large jet aircraft in its current fleet

    • Potential for future growth with 100-seat EMB-190 regional jets (deliveries starting 2005)

  • Regional Jets (RJ) Are Expected to Replace Turboprops on the SAN-LAX Route

  • Significant RJ Expansion in Other Markets Will Be Limited by the Presence of Low-Cost Carriers

  • Orders of Other Major SDIA Carriers Are Focused on Narrowbody Jets


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Aircraft Size at SDIA is Projected to Increase Slowly Over the Forecast Period

Average Seats per Aircraft

Source: US DOT, T100 and SH&E


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San Diego Load Factors Are Among the Highest in the Nation the Forecast Period

Average Domestic Load Factors at U.S. Large Hub Airports

2003

Source: US DOT T100 Databank


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Load Factors Are Projected to Increase Nationally, But High Current Load Factors Will Limit Future Increases at SDIA

Load Factor Assumptions

* 2003 load factor is for domestic flights only.

Source: US DOT, T100 Database; SH&E


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SH&E Forecasts Airline Operations to Grow by 1.6% to 2.3% Annually, Moderately Below the Growth in Passenger Traffic

Forecast SDIA Passenger Airline Operations

Actual and Forecast

327,000

273,000

Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030)

LowHigh

Psgr AirlineOperations 1.6% 2.3%

PassengerTraffic 2.2% 2.8%

Actual 2003172,520


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AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Annually, Moderately Below the Growth in Passenger Traffic

Cargo, General Aviation and Military Operations


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Continued Strong Growth in Cargo Tonnage is Forecast in Both the High and Low Forecast Scenarios

San Diego Cargo Tons (Enplaned + Deplaned)

622,100

Average Annual Growth

Historic: 1980-1990 9.5%

1990-2003 6.5%

HighLow

Forecast: Base 2002 - 2030 4.8% 3.9%

487,100

Actual 2003154,600

Sources: SH&E Analysis


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Average Annual Growth the High and Low Forecast Scenarios(2002 – 2030)

LowHigh

Cargo Operations 2.4% 3.3%

Cargo Tonnage 3.9% 4.8%

4,900

4,600

Cargo Operations are Projected to Grow Slower than Cargo Tonnage Due to Increasing Aircraft Capacity

Forecast All-Cargo Operations at SDIA


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Only 2% of the Region’s General Aviation Operations Occur the High and Low Forecast Scenariosat SDIA

San Diego County GA Operations by Airport Facility

2002

Source: FAA, Terminal Area Forecast, 2003


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GA Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow at Less than 2% Annually

Historic and Forecast GA Operations

1990-2030

Annual Operations

Historic

Forecast

25,000

19,600

Actual 200314,500

Year

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E


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Military Operations Represent 1% of Current SDIA Flight Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period

Historic and Forecast Military Operations

1970-2030

Annual Operations

Historic

Forecast

1,100

Year

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E


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High Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period

Low

Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Are Forecast to Grow from Approximately 200,000 to Between 303,000 and 365,000 in 2030

Total Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Forecast for SDIA

Aircraft Operations

365,000

303,000

Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030)

SH&E High 2.3%

SH&E Low 1.6%

Source: SH&E Analysis


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RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYSIS Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period

SH&E Performed a Capacity Analysis to Identify When SDIA’s Single Runway Will No Longer Be Able to Accommodate Growth in Demand


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Approach Minima Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period

Configuration Ceiling Visibility

Runway 27 VFR 1,200 feet 3 miles

Runway 27 IFR 700 feet 2 miles

Runway 09 or 09/27 IFR 400 feet 1 mile

Runway Capacity Analysis Indicates San Diego Can Handle 55 Operations per Hour Under VFR Weather Conditions

Hourly Runway Capacity

2030

Percentage of Time Configuration Used

Rwy 09 or 09/27 IFR

3.5%

VFR = Visual Flight Rules

IFR = Instrument Flight Rules

Note: Hourly Balanced Flow Capacity for Future SDIA Fleet Mix


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San Diego Currently Experiences Minimal Delays as Demand is Well Below Capacity

Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity

2003 Conditions

Hourly Flights

Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55

Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49

Hour


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2010 Well Below Capacity

2003

In 2010, San Diego Will Still Have Sufficient Runway Capacity to Accommodate Flight Demand

Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity

2010 High Growth Scenario

Hourly Flights

Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55

Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49

Hour


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2020 Well Below Capacity

2010

2003

By 2020, SDIA Will Experience Severe Capacity Pressures Under the High Growth Scenario

Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity

2020 High Growth Scenario(Unconstrained)

Hourly Flights

Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55

Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49

Hour


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2030 Well Below Capacity

2020

2010

2003

Forecast Flight Demand in 2030 is Well Above the Capacity of SDIA’s Single Runway

Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity

2030 High Growth Scenario(Unconstrained)

Hourly Flights

Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55

Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49

Hour


Forecast conclusions l.jpg

FORECAST CONCLUSIONS Well Below Capacity


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At Approximately 260,000 Annual Operations, Runway Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

  • SH&E Forecasts that SDIA Will Reach 260,000 Aircraft Operations Between 2015 (High) and 2022 (Low)

  • At 300,000 Annual Operations, Severe Runway Congestion Will Eliminate Further Growth (Between 2021 and 2030)

  • Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems Will be Required to Reach These Levels


There are no simple remedies to address a significant capacity shortfall l.jpg

Hypothetical Solution Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

Expected Impact

Adjust Schedule Timing to “Smooth” Hourly Demand Pattern

Limited Benefit Given Relatively Flat Current Pattern. There Are No Low Delay Periods During Normal Operating Day (of High Activity Scenarios)

Curfew and Passenger Preferences PrecludeExtending Operating Day

Forecast SDIA Load Factor (approx. 77%) is Higher Than Almost All Large Hubs Today and is Approaching Natural Limits

No Evidence of Higher Load Factors at HeavilyDelayed Airports

Increase Load Factors

Substitute Larger Aircraft

Larger Aircraft Size Observed at Highly Delayed Airports

Some Benefit, but Limited by Composition of Carrier Fleets

There Are No Simple Remedies to Address a Significant Capacity Shortfall


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The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIAKey Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years

Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA

Aircraft Operations

Actual

Master Plan

300,000 Operations

Severe Congestion

260,000 Operations

2003

Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines

Sources: SH&E Analysis

San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996)

Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)


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The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIAKey Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years

Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA

Aircraft Operations

Actual

Master Plan

Airport EconomicAnalysis

300,000 Operations

Severe Congestion

260,000 Operations

2008

2003

Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines

Sources: SH&E Analysis

San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996)

Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)


Slide44 l.jpg
The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIAKey Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years

Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA

Aircraft Operations

Actual

Master Plan

Airport EconomicAnalysis

SH&E High

300,000 Operations

Severe Congestion

260,000 Operations

2008

2015

2003

Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines

Sources: SH&E Analysis

San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996)

Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)


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Actual Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

Master Plan

Airport EconomicAnalysis

SH&E High

SH&E Low

The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years

Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA

Aircraft Operations

300,000 Operations

Severe Congestion

260,000 Operations

2008

2015

2022

2003

Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines

Sources: SH&E Analysis

San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996)

Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)


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Low Growth Scenario Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

Forecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

High Growth Scenario

Forecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

32.7 m

27.1 m

28.2 m

26.1 m

Divergence in 2015 at 23M Psgrs

Divergence in 2022 at 23M Psgrs

Year

Year

Low Growth Scenario

High Growth Scenario

  • Passenger loss is approximately ~4.4M (or 13.6%) in 2030

  • Cumulative passenger loss of 31.3M (2015-2030)

  • Passenger loss is approximately ~1.0M (or 3.8%) in 2030

  • Cumulative passenger loss of 5.0M (2022-2030)

Limited Runway Capacity Will Cause an Estimated Loss of Between 1.0 Million and 4.4 Million Passengers in 2030


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Findings and Conclusions Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

  • Passenger Airlines are the Principal Driver of Total Aircraft Operations at SDIA

  • Passenger Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow from 15.3 Million Passengers in 2003 to Between 27 and 33 Million in 2030

  • Historically, Increases in Aircraft Size and Load Factors at SDIA Permitted Strong Passenger Growth Without a Commensurate Increase in the Number of Aircraft Operations

  • However, High Current Load Factors and Aircraft Fleet Trends Indicate that, Over the Forecast Period, SDIA Aircraft Operations Will Grow at Rates that Approach the Underlying Rate of Passenger Growth

  • As a Result, SDIA Aircraft Operations are Forecast to Increase From Approximately 200,000 Flights in 2003 up to Between 303,000 and 365,000 Flights in 2030 (Unconstrained)


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Findings and Conclusions Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIAcont’d.

  • While SDIA Can Accommodate Current Flight Activity, the Single Runway Has Insufficient Capacity to Handle the Forecast Growth in Aircraft Operations

  • Runway Capacity will Begin to Constrain Growth at 260,000 Operations—Approximately 30% Above Current Levels—Occurring Between 2015 and 2022

  • At 300,000 Annual Operations—Occurring Between 2021 and 2030—Runway Congestion will Eliminate Further Growth

  • Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems (Additional Gates and Taxiway Improvements) Will be Required to Reach these Levels

  • If Additional Runway Capacity is Not Provided, San Diego Will Experience a Cumulative Loss of At Least 5 Million Passengers (Low Growth Scenario) and As Many As 31 Million Passengers (High Growth Scenario) Over the Forecast Period