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San Diego International Airport AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS PowerPoint Presentation
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San Diego International Airport AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

San Diego International Airport AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

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San Diego International Airport AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

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  1. San Diego International AirportAVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Board Presentation Prepared for: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority June 7, 2004

  2. Background • San Diego is the Only Major U.S. Airport that Operates With a Single Runway • Current Flight Volume Can Be Accommodated With Existing Runway Capacity, but the Ability to Handle Future Growth is Limited • SH&E Was Asked to Prepare Aviation Demand Forecasts to Estimate When San Diego International Airport (SDIA) Will Reach Its Runway Capacity Limits

  3. The SDIA Activity Forecasts Have Been Subject to an Extensive Process of Internal and External Review San Diego CountyRegional Airport Authority Federal Aviation Administration Planning Airside Operations Airport Noise Facilities Development Site Selection Study Team San Diego Air Traffic Control Tower Southern California TRACON Western Pacific Region(Richard Dykas) Office of Operations Planning Performance Analysis(Don Guffey)Office of Aviation Policy & Plans(Roger Schaufele) SANDAG Population & Economic Forecasts(Regional Demographers)

  4. Passenger Airlines Represent the Primary Source of Demandfor Runway Capacity at SDIA 2003 Aircraft Operations Scheduled Passenger Airlines 89% Future Growth in Passenger Traffic and Airline Operations Will Represent the Driving Factor in Determining SDIA’s Ability to Accommodate Future Demand Source: SDIA Airport Operations Department, Monthly Activity Report, December 2003

  5. Agenda • Aviation Activity Forecasts • Passenger Traffic • Airline Operations • Cargo Operations • General Aviation Operations • Military Operations • Runway Capacity and Delay Analysis • Forecast Conclusions

  6. AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Passenger Traffic

  7. The Passenger Traffic Forecast Reflects 4 Key Elements Market Characteristics Past GrowthPerformance Growth Drivers Forecast Assumptions Passenger Traffic Forecast

  8. Understanding the Characteristics of San Diego PassengersWill Influence the Forecast of Future Demand Passenger Mix at SDIA Local (96%) Connecting Resident (45%) Visitor (55%) Business (44%) Non-Business (56%) Domestic (98%) International Source: US DOT, O&D Passenger Survey, YE 3Q 2002; San Diego 1998 Customer Satisfaction Survey; San Diego 1998 Total Airport Experience Survey

  9. Avg. Annual Growth1980–2003 SDIA 4.9% U.S. * 3.4% Since 1980, San Diego Passenger Traffic Has Tripled Annual Passengers at SDIA Annual Passengers(In Millions) 200015.8 M 200315.3 M 5.1 M * US growth based on preliminary 2003 traffic statistics from Air Transport Association Source: San Diego Unified Port District Statistics, SAN Master Plan Update, and SH&E Analysis

  10. However, San Diego Passenger Growth Rates Have Been Tapering Downward Passenger Growth Rates Over Consecutive 10-Year Periods 1980-2003 Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

  11. Slowing Growth in SDIA Passenger Traffic Can Be Traced to the Performance of the Economy Average Annual Growth in Personal Income 1980-2000 Source: SANDAG; National Planning Associates

  12. Slower Growth in Air Visitors Has Also Contributed to Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIA Average Annual Growth in SDIA Domestic O&D Passengers Source: US DOT, O&D Survey

  13. WN = Southwest HP = America West Rapid Expansion of Low-Fare Carriers Has Stimulated Traffic Growth at SDIA – In 1990, Five Markets Had Low-Fare Carrier Service from San Diego August 1990 WN WN WN HP WN HP WN Source: OAG Schedule Tapes

  14. WN = Southwest HP = America West SY = Sun Country F9 = Frontier B6 = jetBlue SY B6 WN WN WN F9 WN WN WN WN WN HP WN HP WN WN WN WN WN Currently, SDIA Receives Low-Fare Carrier Service to 17 Markets, Including New East Coast Destinations May 2004 Source: OAG Schedule Tapes

  15. In 2003, Low-Fare Airlines Carried 45% of SDIA Domestic Passengers 2003 Domestic Passenger Share at SDIA Low-Fare Carriers Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

  16. San Diego has a Higher Proportion of Low Fare Service than the U.S. as a Whole, but Low-Fare Carriers are Rapidly Gaining Share in the U.S. Market Share of Non-Stop Seats by Low Fare Carriers 1990 - 2004 Pct of Non-Stop Seats Source: OAG Schedule Tapes

  17. SDIA’s High and Low Forecasts Reflect Differing Views of the Future High and Low Forecast Assumptions

  18. SH&E Forecasts Unconstrained Passengers to Grow from 15.3M in 2003 to Between 27M and 33M by 2030 Annual Passengers Total San Diego Passengers Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030) SH&E High 2.8% SH&E Low 2.2% 32.7 M 27.1 M 2003 Actual15.3 M Sources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB Airport Economic Analysis (AEA), HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001

  19. Translating the Passenger Forecast into Aircraft Operations Requires an Assessment of Two Key Factors AircraftOperations Passenger Traffic Forecast Future AircraftFleet Mix –Average SeatsPer Aircraft LoadFactors – Percent ofSeats Occupied

  20. Narrowbody Jets are the Predominate Aircraft Type in the Current Passenger Airline Fleet Mix at SDIA Passenger Airline Operations by Aircraft Class Base Year 2002 Jet 100-150 Seats 65.2% Source: US DOT, T100 Database

  21. Factors that Will Influence the Future Fleet at SDIA • Aircraft Size for Southwest Airlines, the Leading Carrier at SDIA,Will Not Increase • All aircraft orders are for the 137-Seat Boeing 737-700 • jetBlue Is Expected to Increase Its Presence at SDIA • Currently serves SDIA with 160-seat A-320’s, the only large jet aircraft in its current fleet • Potential for future growth with 100-seat EMB-190 regional jets (deliveries starting 2005) • Regional Jets (RJ) Are Expected to Replace Turboprops on the SAN-LAX Route • Significant RJ Expansion in Other Markets Will Be Limited by the Presence of Low-Cost Carriers • Orders of Other Major SDIA Carriers Are Focused on Narrowbody Jets

  22. Aircraft Size at SDIA is Projected to Increase Slowly Over the Forecast Period Average Seats per Aircraft Source: US DOT, T100 and SH&E

  23. San Diego Load Factors Are Among the Highest in the Nation Average Domestic Load Factors at U.S. Large Hub Airports 2003 Source: US DOT T100 Databank

  24. Load Factors Are Projected to Increase Nationally, But High Current Load Factors Will Limit Future Increases at SDIA Load Factor Assumptions * 2003 load factor is for domestic flights only. Source: US DOT, T100 Database; SH&E

  25. SH&E Forecasts Airline Operations to Grow by 1.6% to 2.3% Annually, Moderately Below the Growth in Passenger Traffic Forecast SDIA Passenger Airline Operations Actual and Forecast 327,000 273,000 Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030) LowHigh Psgr AirlineOperations 1.6% 2.3% PassengerTraffic 2.2% 2.8% Actual 2003172,520

  26. AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Cargo, General Aviation and Military Operations

  27. Continued Strong Growth in Cargo Tonnage is Forecast in Both the High and Low Forecast Scenarios San Diego Cargo Tons (Enplaned + Deplaned) 622,100 Average Annual Growth Historic: 1980-1990 9.5% 1990-2003 6.5% HighLow Forecast: Base 2002 - 2030 4.8% 3.9% 487,100 Actual 2003154,600 Sources: SH&E Analysis

  28. Average Annual Growth(2002 – 2030) LowHigh Cargo Operations 2.4% 3.3% Cargo Tonnage 3.9% 4.8% 4,900 4,600 Cargo Operations are Projected to Grow Slower than Cargo Tonnage Due to Increasing Aircraft Capacity Forecast All-Cargo Operations at SDIA

  29. Only 2% of the Region’s General Aviation Operations Occur at SDIA San Diego County GA Operations by Airport Facility 2002 Source: FAA, Terminal Area Forecast, 2003

  30. GA Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow at Less than 2% Annually Historic and Forecast GA Operations 1990-2030 Annual Operations Historic Forecast 25,000 19,600 Actual 200314,500 Year Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E

  31. Military Operations Represent 1% of Current SDIA Flight Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period Historic and Forecast Military Operations 1970-2030 Annual Operations Historic Forecast 1,100 Year Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E

  32. High Low Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Are Forecast to Grow from Approximately 200,000 to Between 303,000 and 365,000 in 2030 Total Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Forecast for SDIA Aircraft Operations 365,000 303,000 Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030) SH&E High 2.3% SH&E Low 1.6% Source: SH&E Analysis

  33. RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYSIS SH&E Performed a Capacity Analysis to Identify When SDIA’s Single Runway Will No Longer Be Able to Accommodate Growth in Demand

  34. Approach Minima Configuration Ceiling Visibility Runway 27 VFR 1,200 feet 3 miles Runway 27 IFR 700 feet 2 miles Runway 09 or 09/27 IFR 400 feet 1 mile Runway Capacity Analysis Indicates San Diego Can Handle 55 Operations per Hour Under VFR Weather Conditions Hourly Runway Capacity 2030 Percentage of Time Configuration Used Rwy 09 or 09/27 IFR 3.5% VFR = Visual Flight Rules IFR = Instrument Flight Rules Note: Hourly Balanced Flow Capacity for Future SDIA Fleet Mix

  35. San Diego Currently Experiences Minimal Delays as Demand is Well Below Capacity Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity 2003 Conditions Hourly Flights Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55 Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49 Hour

  36. 2010 2003 In 2010, San Diego Will Still Have Sufficient Runway Capacity to Accommodate Flight Demand Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity 2010 High Growth Scenario Hourly Flights Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55 Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49 Hour

  37. 2020 2010 2003 By 2020, SDIA Will Experience Severe Capacity Pressures Under the High Growth Scenario Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity 2020 High Growth Scenario(Unconstrained) Hourly Flights Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55 Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49 Hour

  38. 2030 2020 2010 2003 Forecast Flight Demand in 2030 is Well Above the Capacity of SDIA’s Single Runway Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity 2030 High Growth Scenario(Unconstrained) Hourly Flights Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55 Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49 Hour

  39. FORECAST CONCLUSIONS

  40. At Approximately 260,000 Annual Operations, Runway Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA • SH&E Forecasts that SDIA Will Reach 260,000 Aircraft Operations Between 2015 (High) and 2022 (Low) • At 300,000 Annual Operations, Severe Runway Congestion Will Eliminate Further Growth (Between 2021 and 2030) • Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems Will be Required to Reach These Levels

  41. Hypothetical Solution Expected Impact Adjust Schedule Timing to “Smooth” Hourly Demand Pattern Limited Benefit Given Relatively Flat Current Pattern. There Are No Low Delay Periods During Normal Operating Day (of High Activity Scenarios) Curfew and Passenger Preferences PrecludeExtending Operating Day Forecast SDIA Load Factor (approx. 77%) is Higher Than Almost All Large Hubs Today and is Approaching Natural Limits No Evidence of Higher Load Factors at HeavilyDelayed Airports Increase Load Factors Substitute Larger Aircraft Larger Aircraft Size Observed at Highly Delayed Airports Some Benefit, but Limited by Composition of Carrier Fleets There Are No Simple Remedies to Address a Significant Capacity Shortfall

  42. The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA Aircraft Operations Actual Master Plan 300,000 Operations Severe Congestion 260,000 Operations 2003 Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines Sources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996) Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)

  43. The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA Aircraft Operations Actual Master Plan Airport EconomicAnalysis 300,000 Operations Severe Congestion 260,000 Operations 2008 2003 Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines Sources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996) Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)

  44. The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA Aircraft Operations Actual Master Plan Airport EconomicAnalysis SH&E High 300,000 Operations Severe Congestion 260,000 Operations 2008 2015 2003 Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines Sources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996) Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)

  45. Actual Master Plan Airport EconomicAnalysis SH&E High SH&E Low The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA Aircraft Operations 300,000 Operations Severe Congestion 260,000 Operations 2008 2015 2022 2003 Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA Guidelines Sources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996) Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)

  46. Low Growth Scenario Forecast SDIA Passengers (millions) High Growth Scenario Forecast SDIA Passengers (millions) 32.7 m 27.1 m 28.2 m 26.1 m Divergence in 2015 at 23M Psgrs Divergence in 2022 at 23M Psgrs Year Year Low Growth Scenario High Growth Scenario • Passenger loss is approximately ~4.4M (or 13.6%) in 2030 • Cumulative passenger loss of 31.3M (2015-2030) • Passenger loss is approximately ~1.0M (or 3.8%) in 2030 • Cumulative passenger loss of 5.0M (2022-2030) Limited Runway Capacity Will Cause an Estimated Loss of Between 1.0 Million and 4.4 Million Passengers in 2030

  47. Findings and Conclusions • Passenger Airlines are the Principal Driver of Total Aircraft Operations at SDIA • Passenger Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow from 15.3 Million Passengers in 2003 to Between 27 and 33 Million in 2030 • Historically, Increases in Aircraft Size and Load Factors at SDIA Permitted Strong Passenger Growth Without a Commensurate Increase in the Number of Aircraft Operations • However, High Current Load Factors and Aircraft Fleet Trends Indicate that, Over the Forecast Period, SDIA Aircraft Operations Will Grow at Rates that Approach the Underlying Rate of Passenger Growth • As a Result, SDIA Aircraft Operations are Forecast to Increase From Approximately 200,000 Flights in 2003 up to Between 303,000 and 365,000 Flights in 2030 (Unconstrained)

  48. Findings and Conclusions cont’d. • While SDIA Can Accommodate Current Flight Activity, the Single Runway Has Insufficient Capacity to Handle the Forecast Growth in Aircraft Operations • Runway Capacity will Begin to Constrain Growth at 260,000 Operations—Approximately 30% Above Current Levels—Occurring Between 2015 and 2022 • At 300,000 Annual Operations—Occurring Between 2021 and 2030—Runway Congestion will Eliminate Further Growth • Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems (Additional Gates and Taxiway Improvements) Will be Required to Reach these Levels • If Additional Runway Capacity is Not Provided, San Diego Will Experience a Cumulative Loss of At Least 5 Million Passengers (Low Growth Scenario) and As Many As 31 Million Passengers (High Growth Scenario) Over the Forecast Period