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SEMCOG Forecast Process. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast. A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change

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what is the semcog forecast semcog forecast
What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast
  • A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change
  • Forecasts changes by individual land parcel, so output can be added up by any political or planning jurisdiction
how we forecast semcog forecast
How we Forecast SEMCOG Forecast
  • We collect data on person, household, and job characteristics from state and national surveys such as the U.S. Census
  • Add to that local data on the current and future development of land parcels
  • Add to that other data on transportation, crime, tax rates and other development drivers
  • And input this data into an urban simulation model named UrbanSim
forecast data input semcog forecast
Forecast Data Input SEMCOG Forecast

Regional Control Totals

  • Land Parcel and Tax Assessor Data:
  • Property Address and Owner
  • Property Class and Property Status
  • Current Zoning
  • Value of the Land and Structures
  • Recent Sales Data
  • Number and Age of Buildings
  • Number of Housing Units
  • Building Occupancy
  • Building Size (Square Feet and Stories)

Jobs Data (ES-202):

Business Establishments

Employment by Type

Households Data (Census):

Persons, Workers, Children,

Age, Race, and Income

Future Land Use plans, Crime rates, Environmental constraints, and Property Tax rates

UrbanSim Model

  • Travel Data:
  • Travel Time between Areas
  • Accessibility to Transit and Jobs
year built of oldest structure wayne county

No Structure

1939 or earlier

1940 - 1949

1950 - 1959

1960 - 1969

1970 - 1979

1980 - 1989

1990 - 1999

2000 - 2010

Year Built of Oldest Structure Wayne County
urban simulation model semcog forecast
Urban Simulation Model SEMCOG Forecast
  • Simulates the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy
  • It forecasts future household and business locations based on market preferences and available real estate
  • Can model different policy assumptions, such as changes in housing vacancy, land regulation, or travel patterns
how the model works semcog forecast
How the Model Works SEMCOG Forecast
  • Regional Forecast Totals:
  • Population
  • Households
  • Employment
  • New and Moving:
  • Households
  • Businesses
  • Current Inventories:
  • Housing and Households
  • Buildings and Businesses
  • Land Development:
  • Prices Adjusted
  • New Houses
  • New Buildings
solving problems local government decisions
Solving Problems Local Government Decisions

School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years.

Should we build a new elementary school?

school age population southeast michigan school districts 2010 2020

Change in Population Ages 5 to 17

by School District

Large loss (>2,000)

Loss (501 to 2,000)

Slight loss (0 to 500)

Slight gain (1 to 500)

Gain (501 to 2,500)

School Age PopulationSoutheast Michigan School Districts, 2010-2020
solving problems local government decision
Solving Problems Local Government Decision

Since the long term forecast for school age children is a decline over the 2010 level, no, a new school building is not needed.

School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years.

Should we build a new elementary school?

solving problems local government decisions1
Solving Problems Local Government Decisions

We have a grant to build a new community center.

Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

solving problems local government decision1
Solving Problems Local Government Decision

Since the long term forecast is for the senior population to nearly double while all other age groups decline, we should build a senior center.

We have a grant to build a new community center.

Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

solving problems semcog forecast
Solving Problems SEMCOG Forecast
  • SEMCOG’s regional development forecast is designed to provide local elected officials the data needed to solve current planning issues
  • This is particularly important in a time of limited financial resources
wayne county totals semcog forecast
Wayne County Totals SEMCOG Forecast

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

wayne county trends semcog forecast
Wayne County Trends SEMCOG Forecast

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

modest household growth change in households wayne county 2010 2020

Loss of 28,400 HH

Loss between 150 to 650 HH

Loss of 150 HH to gain of 150 HH

Gain between 150 and 1,001 HH

Gain between 1,000 and 3,000 HH

Modest Household GrowthChange in Households, Wayne County, 2010-2020

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

population change change in population wayne county 2010 2020

Loss greater than 15,000 persons

Loss 3,001 to 15,000 persons

Loss 301 to 3,000 persons

300 loss to 300 gain in persons

Gain 301 to 1,500 persons

Gain greater than 1,500 persons

Population ChangeChange in Population, Wayne County, 2010-2020

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

aging in place population change by age wayne county 2010 2020
Aging in Place Population Change by Age, Wayne County, 2010-2020

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

changing households household change wayne county 2010 2040
Changing Households Household Change, Wayne County, 2010-2040

22%

Households 65 or older

34%

45%

Households under 65, without children

38%

33%

Households under 65, with children

28%

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

employment gains five largest job sectors wayne county 2010 2040
Employment Gains Five Largest Job Sectors, Wayne County, 2010-2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

employment by community change in employment wayne county 2010 2020

Small loss (-26 to -247 jobs)

Little change (-25 to 25 jobs)

Small gain (26 to 250 jobs)

Moderate gain (251 to 1,000 jobs)

Large gain (more than 1,000 jobs)

Employment by Community Change in Employment, Wayne County, 2010-2020

Blocked for Confidentiality

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

local review process semcog forecast
Local Review Process SEMCOG Forecast
  • Review draft community numbers
  • Get comments or additional information to SEMCOG staff by January 6, 2012
  • Final community forecast will be complete and approved by March 2012
  • Data and reports will be available on SEMCOG’s Web site shortly thereafter