Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

2. Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications 2012 Pacific GIS&RS Conference FIJI Better Information Smarter Investments

3. Main Outputs Pacific disaster risk assessment • Probabilistic assessment of major perils • Pacific Risk Information System • Risk based framework to direct resources of countries and development partners Pacific disaster risk financing solutions • Fiscal risk exposure • Financial disaster risk management • Regional risk pooling PARTNERS BASED IN US, JP, NZ, FJ

4. PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM

5. Risk Assessment Hazard Social and economic losses EventGeneration IntensityCalculation LossCalculation DamageEstimation Risk – monetary loss and casualties Vulnerability ExposureInformation Exposure

6. Perils Modeled Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Wind Ground Shaking Flood from Precipitation Flood from Storm Surge Tsunami Wave

7. Hazard Maps: Applications for Planners 100 yr mean return period: wind speed, ground acceleration with ~40% chances to be exceeded in 50years Severe damage to buildings, infrastructure and crops with large consequent economic damage

8. People 2010 projections based on national census information and PopGIS A number of countries have conducted or preparing for a national census

9. Building Inventory 3.5m attributed buildings in the Pacific

10. Major Infrastructure

12. Country risk profiles-Solomon Islands

13. Macroeconomic Planning & Disaster Risk Financing Rapid Disaster ImpactEstimation Integration of Climate Change projections PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM Professional and Institutional Capacity Development Urban Planning and Infrastructure Design APPLICATIONS

14. Pacific Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program • Objective • Reduce financial vulnerability of PICs to disasters by improving their financial response capacity while protecting their long term fiscal balance. • Provide immediate liquidity in the aftermath of a disaster • Provides coverage against tropical cyclones and/or earthquakes. • Covers disruption to the provision of central government services from major disasters • The policy is NOT designed to cover the government against all disaster losses. • Enhanced if it is part of an integrated disaster risk financing strategy including, for example, domestic reserves.

15. Post-Disaster Real Time Loss Assessment - Tropical Cyclones and Earthquakes • CAT models do not typically use any direct field observation of damage, loss, or disaster intensity • The accuracy of the loss estimates improves if field observations are taken into account • Damage and loss assessments Air Worldwide - Confidential

16. Pre-disaster Loss Assessment • Feasibility study to develop a system that, in real time, forecasts the impact of tropical cyclones as they build • AIR has extensive experience in such systems in the Atlantic Ocean in the North Pacific Ocean for certain countries • Such systems are feasible but their application to the region of the PICs needs to be studied further Air Worldwide - Confidential

17. How does CC affect TCs? Assess potential future tropical cyclone risk to critical assets in Pacific island countries with climate change. Outcome: understand the changing nature of tropical cyclone risk to infrastructure assets consider the future implications in terms of loss and damage assess the effectiveness of current planning and design standards against future needs Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program

18. Risk Resilience in Urban Development Anticipated Outputs • Integrated climate and disaster risk screening tools for planning are operational • Integrated tools for mainstreaming disaster and climate risks into development planning are shared • Pacific DMC planners apply newly acquired climate and disaster risk mainstreaming skills Countries: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Is, Tonga, Vanuatu Timeframe: 2 years Partners: SOPAC/ADB/WB/UNHABITAT/DCCEE

19. GEONODE DEVELOPMENT

20. Outcomes: Pacific Disaster Managers • National capacities and ownership   • Communication, awareness and understanding of the applications: Tools to support decision making • Improve current models & expand to include other hazards • Data maintenance • Integrate the application of the Pacific Risk Information in informing national DRM interventions • Improve coordination between donors and development partners • Custodianship and data sharing