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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs. Life is uncertain… Disasters? Climate Change? The weather tomorrow?. We need tools that enable informed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems.

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Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

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  1. Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs

  2. Life is uncertain… • Disasters? • Climate Change? • The weather tomorrow? We need tools that enable informed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems

  3. Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA

  4. Collaborative mapping and data sharing platforms Web Portal Geo Node = + Collaboration Distribution Cartography Data collection

  5. Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic - Probabilistic Risk Modeling Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable loss) Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses)

  6. CAPRA ~ Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of free and open source GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions to reduce disaster risk within in Central America.

  7. GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS LAVA FLOWS STORM SURGE STRONG WINDS Multi-Peril Probabilistic Modeling

  8. Probabilistic Risk Modeling Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable loss) Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) - Scenario or Stochastic - Disaster Impact Analysis

  9. Scenario Risk Modeling San Juan del Sur Nicaragua Hazard Vulnerability Risk: Physical Damage, Loss $ Exposure

  10. Stochastic Hazard Modeling Stochastic Event Set = All events that could impact a region Frequency : How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100) Severity : How strong is the event? Hurricane Cat 5 What does the event look like? Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc

  11. GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS LAVA FLOWS STORM SURGE STRONG WINDS Climate Change Impact on Disasters

  12. Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model Model A Model B

  13. Hazards + Exposure + Vulnerability + Risk Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Applications Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

  14. Internal Demo version of Geo Node • Expansion of Probabilistic Risk Models to other regions • Integration of Climate Change scenarios into DRM Labs www.ecapra.org www.geonode.org Abigail Baca abaca@worldbank.org

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