Census based measures of fertility mortality and migration
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Census-based measures of fertility, mortality, and migration. Hist 5011. Fertility: Yasuba 1962. Measure ratio of women aged 15-49 to children aged 0-4 for each state (or county) Correlate with characteristics of state (e.g. land availability, sex ratio, ethnicity) .

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Fertility yasuba 1962
Fertility: Yasuba 1962

  • Measure ratio of women aged 15-49 to children aged 0-4 for each state (or county)

  • Correlate with characteristics of state (e.g. land availability, sex ratio, ethnicity)

Fertility coale and zelnik 1963
Fertility: Coale and Zelnik 1963

  • Begin with single-year age distribution

  • Adjust for mortality

  • Adjust for census underenumeration

  • Yield: number of births in each year, back to 1800

  • Suggested very early fertility decline


  • No information on marital fertility

  • No age-specific rates (cannot look at stopping vs. spacing)

  • Cannot study differentials between population subgroups (e.g. different occupations)

Microdata allows own child fertility analysis
Microdata allows own-child fertility analysis

  • Retherford and Cho, 1978

  • Calculate mean number of children of each age living with mothers of each age

  • Adjust mean upwards to reflect mortality of children, underenumeration, and children residing without mothers

  • Yields estimates of age-specific marital fertility

Simple own child approach
Simple own-child approach

  • Even if we can make rough estimates of adjustments for whole populations, we cannot do so for population subgroups

  • Therefore, adjustments make no sense when studying fertility differentials

  • Simple own-child approach uses no adjustments: just measure mean children under 5 with mothers of each age.

Children ever born
Children ever born

  • Limitation: we don’t know when they were born

  • Best for study of completed fertility

  • Can calculate cohort parity distributions for older women

  • Allows cohort-parity analysis (David and Sanderson 1987)

Mortality two census methods
Mortality: Two-Census methods

  • Get two adjacent censuses

  • Adjust population counts at each age for immigration, emigration, and changes in net underenumeration

  • Subtract to estimate number of deaths

  • Divide by midpoint of population to estimate age-specific death rates

  • Rough estimates only, since effects of adjustments are large

Mortality children ever born and children surviving
Mortality: Children-ever-born and children surviving

  • Calculate percent of children born surviving by age of mother

  • Standardize or focus on a particular age group

  • Can be used to study differentials

  • With fancier techniques, can be used to estimate age-specific death rates for young people (Preston and Haines 1991)

Migration net migration estimates from aggregate data
Migration: Net migration estimates from aggregate data

  • Eldridge and Thomas 1960

  • Similar to two-census mortality estimation

  • Get age distributions by state

  • Adjust for mortality and differential underenumeration

  • The remaining difference between time periods is net migration

  • Result: slow upward trend in migration since 19th century

Migration using birthplace information
Migration: Using birthplace information

  • Calculate percent of native-born persons residing out of their state of birth

  • Works especially well for lifetime migration (Kelly Hall and Ruggles forthcoming)

Migration record linkage
Migration: Record linkage

  • Thernstrom 1963 and many others

  • Ferrie 2004

  • New 1880 linkage project

Migration using children present
Migration: Using children present

  • Can be tricky

  • Easiest measure, if you have enough cases: just look at persons who have children of a particular age

  • Large potential for selection bias

Migration residence 5 years ago
Migration: residence 5 years ago

  • Good since 1940 U.S., 1960s or 1970s in other countries

  • Focus on recent migration

  • Allows many methods