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Navigating Fiscal Rules for Economic Stability

Explore the challenges and strategies for meeting fiscal rules to strengthen public finances. Analyze the golden rule, sustainable investment rule, and risks to the economy. Discover potential impacts and conclusions for financial sustainability.

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Navigating Fiscal Rules for Economic Stability

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  1. Meeting the fiscal rules? Gemma Tetlow Institute for Fiscal Studies

  2. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  3. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  4. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  5. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  6. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  7. Strengthening the public finances Change in current budget balance, 2007–08 to 2012–13 Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  8. The big picture Labour I Labour II Source: HM Treasury

  9. The fiscal rules • Golden Rule • Borrow only to invest • Current budget balance or surplus • Judged over the economic cycle • Sustainable Investment Rule • Debt at a stable and prudent level • This cycle: ≤40% of national income every year

  10. Source: HM Treasury

  11. Current budget balance Source: HM Treasury

  12. Meeting the golden rule? Cumulative current budget balance Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  13. Meeting the golden rule? Cumulative current budget balance Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  14. Meeting the golden rule? Cumulative current budget balance Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  15. Current budget balances Source: HM Treasury

  16. The fiscal rules • Golden Rule • Borrow only to invest • Current budget balance or surplus • Judged over the economic cycle • Sustainable Investment Rule • Debt at a stable and prudent level • This cycle: ≤40% of national income every year • Now defined excluding Northern Rock

  17. Will the investment rule be met? Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  18. Will the investment rule be met? Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  19. Will the investment rule be met? Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  20. Meeting the net debt rule? Minimum forecast headroom from 40% ceiling Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  21. Meeting the net debt rule? Minimum forecast headroom from 40% ceiling Source: HM Treasury; IFS

  22. Risks to the public finances • Economic downturn deeper/more prolonged • Underlying receipts weaker than Treasury believes • Though Budget 2008 projection now closer to Green Budget 2008 • Political pressure for greater giveaways

  23. Greater giveaways ahead? • One-off enhanced payment for over-60s • Maybe over-60s equally deserving next winter? • Cost £575 million per year • Fuel duty: delay 2p nominal increase until October • Maybe oil price will remain high? • Cost £550 million per six months • Gift aid: 2p cut in charity relief delayed for 3 years • Maybe charities equally deserving in year four? • Cost £120 million per year • To make these policies permanent: £2bn a year

  24. Conclusions • £7½bn deterioration in public finances • Financed by new measures, tighter Spending Review 2009 and higher borrowing • No room to manoeuvre against either fiscal rule • Debt rule could easily be breached in 2010–11 • Increased pressure for further giveaways?

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