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Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin

Climate Science in the Public Interest. Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin. James Battin Krista Bartz Mary Ruckelshaus Hiroo Imaki Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard Palmer. NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center.

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Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin

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  1. Climate Science in the Public Interest Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering

  2. Background • 1999: Seven salmon Ecologically Sensitive Units (ESUs) are listed as “threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). • 1998 -1999 Washington legislature passed the Salmon Recovery Act created watershed planning process to identify recovery actions • 2000: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) convened the Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team (TRT) to develop delisting criteria and provide technical guidance for recovery planning

  3. Local Evidence of Climate Change • Declining snowpack • Shifts in timing of runoff • Declining trend on overall runoff volume

  4. Evidence of Climate Change Seasonal trends – by station

  5. Climate Model (GFDL, Hadley) Predicted AtmosphericCO2 air temperature & precipitation Hydrology Model (DHSVM) Land Cover & Land Form Data stream flow & stream temperature Salmon Pop. Model (SHIRAZ) Habitat Capacity Salmon Abundance

  6. +0.9 C +1.5% +1.5 C -0.2% 2025 2050

  7. +0.7 C +1.1% +1.3 C -5.1% 2025 2050

  8. Results • Winter stream flows increase • Summer stream flows decrease • Stream temperatures rise 2025 2050 No Change in Land Use

  9. Results • Winter stream flows increase • Summer stream flows decrease • Stream temperatures rise 2025 2050 No Change in Land Use

  10. Results • Winter stream flows increase • Summer stream flows decrease • Stream temperatures rise 2025 2050 No Change in Land Use

  11. Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon

  12. Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon

  13. Conclusions • The projected climate change scenarios have a profoundly negative impact on Snohomish basin Chinook salmon populations. • Restoration efforts can offset some of these impacts

  14. Conclusions Totals using GFDL based Climate information Totals using HadCM3 based Climate information

  15. Caveats • GFDL is a more extreme climate scenario. Both models are on the warmer side of the newest IPCC projections. • Timing of climate change is uncertain. • Salmon harvest, hatchery operations, and ocean conditions were all held constant.

  16. Climate Science in the Public Interest Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering

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