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Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future

Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future. Edward O’Lenic Chair, AMS Committee on Climate Services Chief, Operations Branch, NOAA-NWS-CPC. Thesis.

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Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future

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  1. Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future Edward O’Lenic Chair, AMS Committee on Climate Services Chief, Operations Branch, NOAA-NWS-CPC

  2. Thesis • A successful climate services Enterprise will require a series of long-term relationships among the members of participating sectors. • Delivery of useful products should be the focus. • A continuous flow of iteratively refined requirements from users toward intermediary, operational and research providers will ensure products are useful. • A strong research component, though of fundamental importance, is only a part of the formula for success.

  3. Challenges from Users Western Governor’s Association (Jones, 2007): - More accurate, finer-resolution long range forecasts - Continued and expanded funding for data collection, monitoring and prediction - Partnerships with federal and state climatologists, RCCs, agricultural extension services, resource management agencies, federal, state and local governments. USDA ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory (Schneider, 2002): - Fewer “EC” forecasts - Better correspondence between F probability and O frequency - Forecast more useful than climatology

  4. Current Operational Capabilities • We have a suite of products, including extreme events for days 3-14, extended-range forecasts for week 2, 1-month and 3-month outlooks. • These are predicated on the facts that the products have a scientific basis, have skill, and therefore ought to be useful, which is fine, but - • We have a less-than adequate understanding of user requirements, or actual practical use.

  5. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  6. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  7. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  8. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  9. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  10. GAPS Some key gaps include: • Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, • Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, • Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, • Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, • Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, • Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support for an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

  11. Bridging Research, Operations, Users ? Use it if you can Assumed User Needs Basic data and Forecasts GOVT. PROVIDERS Basic Research

  12. Bridging Research, Operations, Users How can these gaps be filled? • Know WHO stakeholders are and HOW they USE climate products, (relationships), • LEARN from stakeholders WHAT we need to provide (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships), • Implement user-, and science-VETTED products, (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships), • Operational DAY-TO-DAY USER SUPPORT (extension function, relationships, operations, research) ? Use it if you can Assumed User Needs Basic data and Forecasts GOVT. PROVIDERS Basic Research

  13. How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners? • Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research. • Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements. • Annual meeting among components • The only “permanent” member is the government, so it must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector. • “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need. This does NOT mean simply doing on-line surveys!

  14. How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners? • Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research. • Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements. • Annual meeting among components • The only “permanent” member is the government, so it must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector. • “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need. RISA – Working model for intermediary climate services.

  15. Bridging Research, Operations, Users users ? Use it if you can Use refinement Assumed User Needs Intermediary Applications Products (CTB-RISA/PRIVATE/RCC/SC-SBIR) USER NEEDS IDENTIFIED Decision-Support Development REQUIREMENTS Technical Refinement Basic data, Forecasts Transfer User-Vetted products Transfer User-Vetted products GOV PROVIDERS (CPC/EMC) NCEP/NCDC/USGS CTB SUPPOPRT GOV PROVIDERS GOV OPS PRIVATE OPS R2O O2R O2R: Model Test Facility R2O: CTB Basic Research: Models, MME, Statistical Methods Basic Research

  16. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Example of a Means to Address Gaps What FET and CLIDDSS provide: • User-centric forecast evaluation and data access and display capability. • Leveraging of community software development capabilities. • Opportunity to DISCOVER, collect, and invest in user requirements.

  17. FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC

  18. FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC

  19. A Wide Variety of Skill Renderings of 3-Month Outlooks A B A B A B B A T P B B A A

  20. FUTURE of the FET Next 6 months: • Finalize and implement FET project plan at CPC. • Ellen Lay (CLIMAS) to train CPC personnel on FET version control and bug tracking at CPC, November 12-14, 2008. • Necessary software (APACHE TOMCAT, JAVA, Desktop View) acquired and installed at CPC. • Forecast, observations datasets in-place at CPC. • FET code ported to CPC, installed, tested. • FET installed to NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) servers

  21. FUTURE of the FET + In partnership with CLIMAS and community we will add: • Other forecasts and organizations • Time and space aggregation options • Significance tests/cautions to users • Requirements requests option • Questions option

  22. CTB User-Centric Forecast Tools Progress • Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) Tested • Secured Go-Ahead to Place FET on NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) • Trained CPC Staff in JAVA language • Scheduled Ellen Lay Training session in Nov. The stakes are high…..

  23. Source: The Washington Post Outlook Section, July 13, 2008

  24. Summary • Users want partnership, accuracy, specificity, flexibility • “Relationship” is synonymous with “partnership” • Producers must learn WHO users are, HOW they use products and WHAT their evolving requirements are • Need to involve users and producers in iteratively optimizing products implemented and avert VOD. • A continuous flow of requirements from users toward research may avert VOD. • Means to fund an ever-expanding, perpetual product suite needed and avert VOD. • Stakes are high: 6 of top 20 news/media June 2008 sites were weather-related. 10s-100s of B$ at stake. Climate will only add to this.

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