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Translational Climate Science and Services in the Climate Impact Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Project. Andrew C. Comrie. Acknowledgements: Maria Carmen Lemos, Malcolm K. Hughes, Jonathan T. Overpeck & the CLIMAS Team. CLIMAS & RISAs. CLIMAS = Climate Assessment for the Southwest
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Andrew C. Comrie
Acknowledgements: Maria Carmen Lemos, Malcolm K. Hughes, Jonathan T. Overpeck & the CLIMAS Team
understanding how climate conditions and processes generate regional and local social and natural impacts and responses
Oklahoma: +5% chance of wet
38% chance of wet
33% chance of normal
28% chance of dry
E US: Complete uncertainty
“CL” = climatology/no skill
CPC tercile forecast 3rd party product
(CL now EC)
Example: History of the irrigated agriculture in the Sulphur Springs Valley, AZ. It highlights the interaction between climate, economy, water and technology
Percentage of stakeholders taking action using END InSight drought materials in 2002 (Note: total respondents varied from 33 in July to 29 in August and 21 in September).
Example of reconstructed cool-season precipitation for AZ CD2.
Note irregular dry/wet fluctuations. In particular, there are many dry periods comparable to the 1950's drought but few wet periods that match the post-1976 wet conditions
Sources of water used in Arizona, 1994
Likelihood of climate-related impacts within five years. Note that drought and high temperatures are not the most significant disruptions to water systems.
Percentage of total water supply likely to be obtained via groundwater in various scenarios.
Note that climatic variability could necessitate a great deal more groundwater pumping than is currently necessary, particularly when combined with population growth and changes in water supply and land use.
- Wettest modes in the SW, but dry in the Great Plains
- Opposite in pre-monsoon
Intraseasonal monsoon evolution
- Lowpass (>10d) 500 mb anoms (m)Monsoon Diagnostics and Predictability
Potential Predictability from SSTs
Wet/Dry Winter Precipitation Examples