Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee

1. Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Dr. RapikSaat, Ph.D., PMPRail Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC) Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 9 July 2014CrossRail Celebratory Lunch The Museum of Broadcast Communications, Chicago, IL

2. Outline • CrossRail conceptual vision • Route alternatives • Operation & maintenance cost • Ridership target • Capital cost • Summary

3. CrossRailChampaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Conceptual Vision • Improve the connectivity between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Chicago (135 miles) • Leverage high ridership between Chicago and Milwaukee • Distance too short to attract HSR investment (75 miles) • Blended service: • True HSR between Champaign and University Park (max. 220mph) • True HSR between Chicago and Milwaukee (max. 220mph) • Shared operations within Chicago (existing average speed) • Total length of 220 mile

4. Route Assumptions Champaign(CHM)- University Park(UNIV) Three alternatives - Red: I-57 - Blue: US-45 and US-50 - Yellow: Existing Amtrak/CN line Potential available public land for I-57 and US-45/US-50 alternatives HSR construction and operation on the shared ROW with existing Amtrak/CN line is challenging Backbone of CN’s U.S. operation 40 minute estimated trip time

5. Route AssumptionsChicago Area • Existing Metra services connected in Chicago area - Purple: North Central Service (NCS) of Metra - Pink: Metra Electric District (ME) of Metra • Assume NCS and ME line connected at Chicago Union Station • With no additional capital improvement express service takes • 60 minutes between University Park and Downtown • 30 minutes between Downtown and O’Hare Airport

6. Route Assumptions O’Hare International Airport (ORD)- Milwaukee (MKE) Based on U of I class project results, there are three main alternatives between ORD and Milwaukee: - Red:West alternative - Blue: Central alternative - Yellow: East alternative Central alternative was identified as the best alternative Total length of selected route is 75 miles 30 minute estimated trip time

7. HSR Feasibility Requirement #1:Can a HSR System Cover Its Operating Cost?

8. Annual Operating and Maintenance Cost If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost Assumptions 14 trips each direction, 24 total trips per day Schedule is same during the whole year O&M cost standard is based on the California High Speed Rail study

9. Estimated Existing Annual Ridership Journey to Work Surveye Sources: Wikipedia MWHSR Transystem Study MKE Airport Total Annual Passengers in 2013 Estimated, based on 2013 CMI enplanements and ratio of ORD vs DFW flights U.S. Census – Department of Commerce (Commuting – Journey to Work Data)

10. The largest risk in the initial phase of a HSR implementation is ridership forecast

11. Two Approaches of Ridership Forecast • Induced Income/ population forecast Introduction of HSR

12. Research Need: Advanced Ridership Study • Improved ridership study to estimate system’s profitability • Use aggregated ridership forecast approach instead of survey • Getting auto ridership data is key to identify diverted HSR ridership from highways • Key to forecast accuracy • Opportunity: Acquire cellphone data

13. HSR Feasibility Requirement #1:Can a HSR System Cover Its Operating Cost? If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost. This can be achieved for example by realigning the synergy between ORD-MKE airports.

14. Research Need: HSR Roles & Synergies with Airports/Airlines • HSR can potentially improve air transportation • Short-haul air travel (less than 500 miles) could be replaced with HSR • Landing and takeoff slots at congested airports could be freed up for long-haul flights • HSR as a feeder to long-haul flights • Integrated multi-airport operation (e.g. ORD-MKE airports) could provide positive redundancy to improve service resiliency and reduced delays Source: Clewlow, R.R.L., J.M. Sussman, H. Balakrishnan (2012). Interaction of HSR and Aviation: Exploring Air-Rail Connectivity. Transportation Research Record: Journal of Transportation Research Board, No. 2266, pp. 1-10) • HSR-Airline collaborations are common in Europe • How can at least half of the 6.5 million annual passengers at MKE Airport be streamlined to use ORD and vice-versa with less than 30-min ORD-MKE HSR connection?

15. HSR Feasibility Requirement #2:Can a HSR System Cover Its Capital Cost?

16. Capital Cost Assumptions • True High Speed Rail Routes Based on the IDOT 220 project and U of I class project to determine capital cost and cost per mile for Champaign-University Park, Milwaukee-O’Hare routes • Metra Express $1B investment mainly to connect the existing Metra Electric District (ME) with North Central Service (NCS) through Chicago Union Station

17. Research Need: Engineering Route and Environmental Impact Analyses • Identify preliminary alignment and design • Verify publicly-available right-of-ways • Capital cost estimation • Evaluate environmental impacts

18. Summary • CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee is expected to be operationally profitable • Further studies needed: • Ridership forecast • HSR roles and synergies with airports and airlines • Engineering route and environmental impact analyses • Economic impact and financial analyses • Planning is a long-term effort • e.g. Illinois was “shovel-ready” to receive federal HSR funding in 2008 because the vision started as early as early 1990s and completed EIS in 2003 • Investment-grade planning analysis and state commitment (e.g. public land availability) could attract investors keen to showcase their HSR technologies and enter U.S. market

19. Thank you! Questions?

20. Appendix

21. Cities Along CrossRail Route Chicago The most populous city in Midwest and third most populous city in the U.S with 9,522,434 metro population. An international hub for finance, commerce, industry, technology, telecommunications, and transportation, with O’Hare International Airport being the second-busiest airport in the world; it also has the largest number of U.S. highways, and railroad freight entering its region GDP of metro area is 585,900 million dollars(2013)

22. Cities Along CrossRailRoute Milwaukee Largest city in the U.S. state ofWisconsin with 1,566,981 metro population. It is main cultural and economic center of the Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha Metropolitan Areawith a population of 2,037,542 as of an official 2012 estimate GDP of metro area is 88,708million dollars(2013) Champaign Champaign is the fourth-most populous city in the state outside of the Chicago Metropolitan area. It is notable for sharing the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with its sister city of Urbana. Champaign is also the home of Parkland College which serves about 18,000 students during the academic year.Metro population of Champaignis 231,891