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Pre-Feasibility Study Cost Estimation Resources. ©2002 Dr. Bradley C. Paul. Pre-Feasibility Study. Order of Magnitude Estimates Determined which things would be considered Pre-Feasibility Study Determines whether there is enough promise to justify the effort required to move forward

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pre feasibility study
Pre-Feasibility Study
  • Order of Magnitude Estimates Determined which things would be considered
  • Pre-Feasibility Study Determines whether there is enough promise to justify the effort required to move forward
  • Feasibility Study (generally 10-30% +/-)
  • Next Moves to Project Approval (5-10%)
pre feasibility study3
Pre-Feasibility Study
  • Pre-Feasibility Study
    • Requires that you have a concept for what going to build
    • Break project down into areas and tasks
      • Outby Haulage
      • Ventilation
      • Mine Workings
  • Costs of Components Done Separately
    • Need to include everything
methods of getting pre feasibility cost data
Methods of Getting Pre-Feasibility Cost Data
  • Clear List of What is Included to make sure all components are included
  • Begin to Find Manuals Available
    • EPRI Coal Mine Cost Model (about 1981)
    • Bureau of Mines Cost Estimating System (1984)
    • SERPA Cost Program (current)
    • Western Mine Cost Service
typical cost manual approaches
Typical Cost Manual Approaches
  • Factored Cost Estimates
    • Use Curves that are a function of some over-all characteristic
      • Example US Bureau of Mines Cost Estimating System
  • Itemized Cost Estimates
    • Specify cubic yards of concrete
    • Apply a cost per cubic yard
    • Used by EPRI and Serpa
strengths and weaknesses
Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Factored Cost Estimation Approach
    • Requires a lesser degree of engineering detail be worked out to run
      • all costs linked to a specific generally known parameter
    • Lets get closer to answer with less work
  • Itemized Cost Estimates
    • Structure is same as Feasibility Estimate
      • allows more transparent transition to Feasibility study estimates
general comments on major cost estimation resources
General Comments on Major Cost Estimation Resources
  • EPRI - Coal Mine Cost Model
    • Most cost model resources are for hard rock and industrial minerals - this one is coal
    • Model covers coal mining costs but is weak in ancillary facilities and some capital costs
      • Example - No capital cost capability for shaft or slope
    • Model linked to a computer program that has not been updated
      • 1981 software in the 21rst century looses a lot
more epri comments
More EPRI Comments
  • 1980 and 1981 cost base
    • needs significant inflation indexing
      • will see later that knowing how much to index with what is important
      • doesn’t show which indices to use on what
  • Productivity Sensitive
    • crews and advances done with simulations current in 1980
    • coal mine productivity has increased about 250%
      • are some productivity indices from BLS but not a common updating procedure
  • A Hardrock Package
  • A comprehensive mine cost package that has been maintained to fairly current status with costs
    • is private so seeing exactly what is in the package is not really possible
    • fairly current still means the driving routines run in DOS
      • cryptic key sequences and IO problems
      • suspect that costs are updated but engineering assumptions in code may not be
  • Has a lot of defaults built in
  • Has relatively simple categories of mine needs
  • May almost be able to run at at the fairly precise order of magnitude estimate stage
    • most manuals really can’t help you till get to prefeasibility
    • Ability to add details and replace defaults gives system power that extends up into pre-feasibility
      • weaknesses in showing details of output probably make use in feasibility stage really questionable
western mine cost service
Western Mine Cost Service
  • Collection of cost models and typical item prices
    • comes as articles over time
      • makes comprehensive approach at any one time questionable
      • may have to inflation index different parts of mine cost separately
      • very vulnerable to holes in needed costing
  • Hardrock manual that has some coal mining equipment items in it
    • can use on coal but comprehensive approach problem
western mine cost service12
Western Mine Cost Service
  • Place where manual shines
    • identify a critical cost area and you want to get down to itemizing equipment or features and need costs
      • great alternative to fishing for vendors that will give you prices before your really shopping for equipment
    • event is likely to occur as Pre-feasibility study moves into true feasibility study
    • Manual caters all the way from Order of Magnitude to Feasibility but is comprehensive nowhere
us bureau of mines cost estimating system
US Bureau of Mines Cost Estimating System
  • Prob the most comprehensive high precision pre-feasibility manual ever written
    • No holes - covers everything
    • Too much detail and work to function in Order of Magnitude Estimation
    • Factored cost estimate approach is not compatible with itemized detail needed in critical areas of Feasibility Study
    • Manual is clearly hardrock
      • not good for quarry’s either
status of bm ces
Status of BM CES
  • Mid 90s Congress killed Bureau of Mines
    • manual has been without caretaker
    • lots spin off people went to Western Mine Cost and Serpa came from BofM
  • Had beautiful spreadsheet program that ran manuals rapidly
      • was designed for Lotus 123
      • not updated to latest spreadsheets and some macros don’t work
status of bm ces cont
Status of BM CES cont
  • Had automatic cost indexing but that’s not been maintained
      • fortunately same index structure was picked up by Western Mine Cost which has been maintained
      • getting recent indexing into spreadsheet model is an on your own
        • can do it manually as you will see