WECC ACTIVITIES

1. WECC ACTIVITIES TEPPC, SPSG, SPG Updates LeeAnn Torkelson February 16, 2011

2. TEPPC

3. TEPPC Activities • Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Ten Year Plan Whitepaper • Documenting steps to get to the September 2011 ten year plan required by the DOE grant • Draft #3 of whitepaper can be located at: http://www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/1118200/default.aspx?InstanceID=1 • Next meeting February 23-25, Salt Lake City • SPSG Feb 23-24 • Joint session, about 2 hoursFeb 24 • TEPPC Feb 24-25

4. TEPPC - SPSG Activities

5. TEPPC - SPSG Activities • Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) • Organized to bring non-utility perspective to planning • Commission representation • Consumer advocate • New technology • Renewable integration • Environmental • Tribal • Incorporating environmental and other non-traditional data into planning

6. TEPPC SPSG Activities • RFP’s • SPSG Technical Support RFP (AWARDED) • Environmental Data Analysis (ICF) • Energy Planning Analysis (ICF) • Energy Policy Analysis (E3) • Scenario Planner RFP (AWARDED) • IHS CERA • Long Term Planning Tools Task Force (pending recommendation)

7. TEPPC SPSG Activities • SPSG Environmental Data Task Force (EDTF) • SPSG, through EDTF, is developing recommendations for a methodology to incorporate environmental data into transmission planning process. • Interview with ICF International on 2/21 to share how we incorporate environmental data in SWAT. • I need your help – How do we (SWAT) incorporate environmental data into transmission planning? • Who else has been contacted? • What is “environmental data”? • Land, wildlife, cultural, historical, water resources • How/when do we bring environmental data into the planning process? • Developers? Utilities? Governments?? Others??

8. TEPPC SPSG Activities • A Sampling of the Interview Questions: • “What is it about the planning process that could be improved to facilitate the development of transmission (in general or from an environmental perspective)?” • “What assumptions are made in the transmission planning process related to environmental issues?” • “Please describe the nature and extent of environmental considerations in IRP processes.” • “What types of environmental info does your planning process consider?” • “How do we define “environmental data”? Land ownership? Air emissions? Policy?” • “How can we use the environmental data to assist transmission development (as opposed to being an obstacle)?”

9. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • The DRAFT Scenarios Proposed to be investigated 20 year): • Scenario 1 – Brave new world or green ascendant • Scenario 2 – Shifting Sands or Riding the Waves • Scenario 3 – Lost Years or the Abyss • Scenario 4 – Energy Stockade, Fortress USA, Energy Island USA

10. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • Scenario 1 – Brave New World or Green Ascendant • Expects climate change regulation through: • Taxes • Carbon redux goals • State vs federal mandates • Closure of 90% of coal plants, enacted carbon tax, cheap gas and renewable deployment increase • High adoption of alt-fuel vehicles, energy efficiency • Technology improvements to lower carbon footprint, smart homes, grid, distributed generation vs large centralized plants • Transmission lines needed to harness remote resources for load and meet RPS standards

11. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • Scenario 2 – Shifting Sands or Riding the Waves • Anticipates no clear policy or direction • Periods of activity, followed by laissez faire, vacillating government policies, lack of clarity at federal, state, local levels • Federal Cap and Trade is proposed to be passed, international agreement to reduce carbon emissions • Coal plants are moderately affected, some closure, but less environmental (EPA) focus • Renewables and Natural Gas are fuels of choice, California policy of all in-state renewables stalls development of mountain-state renewables • Transmission development difficult in early years, easier in later years to access renewables, smart grid, dynamic pricing opportunities

12. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • Scenario 3 – Lost Years or the Abyss • National/international financial crises stall any significant climate change, energy, or transmission policy. Water crises emerge. • Subsidies to fossil fuels and renewables are eliminated • Low oil/gas prices, low demand in early years, some price volatility. • Climate change legislation abandoned to address the basic needs of food/water • Limited EPA regulations on coal, minimal coal retirements. Federal regulations on water impact generation development, eliminates OTC • Limited transmission development in early years, modest additions to meet California loads with out of state solar/wind

13. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • Scenario 4 – Energy Stockade, Fortress USA, Energy Island USA • International geopolitical instability and huge trade imbalance results in a self-sufficient US energy policy • Reduced oil imports (Canada exempt) • Alternatives to gasoline engines encouraged by a bridging tax on all gas engines • Federal government agnostic on power plant fuels as long as they are domestic fuels – natural gas and renewables are favored • Energy independence mandates result in energy efficiency, conservation, technology, and building standards. • DG encouraged to reduce vulnerability of transmission system. • Self-sufficiency and US isolationismdue to international instability result in economic stagnation and very little transmission development. • The limited amount of transmission developed is in response to security (cyber attack/terrorism) concerns and to meet CA loads and RPS standards.

14. TEPPC SPSG - the SCENARIOS • The scenario descriptions are available at: http://www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/SPSG/Shared%20Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx?RootFolder=%2fcommittees%2fBOD%2fTEPPC%2fSPSG%2fShared%20Documents%2fScenario%20Planning&FolderCTID=&View=%7bAFB30CAC%2dC89C%2d43B8%2dAB4A%2d3AFB9A253FDE%7d • How do these scenarios translate into transmission, studies, and a report for 2013? • More to come!

15. SCG Activities

16. SCG Activities • SCG = Subregional Coordination Group • Eight planning entities (CTPG still to be added, making 9) • Developed Foundational & Potential Projects list • Foundational Projects used in determining the base transmission in the 2020 production cost modeling studies • Potential Projects may be used to relieve congestion

17. SCG Activities • January 2011 meeting • Technical Study of the 2020 Reference case • Round-trip of powerflow-promod-powerflow case • SCG’s to determine season/hour of interest to study (SEE NEXT SLIDE) • SCG’s to help develop N-1 (select N-2) outages to be studied • Consultant will be hired to perform the study work by 2/28 • “Reasons for Building New Transmission” whitepaper • Trying to highlight/educate that there are more reasons to build transmission than just production cost modeling • May bediscussed at the February 23-25 SPSG/TEPPC meetings • Improving SPG’s coordination and interaction • Beginning to formalize SPG coordination to ensure that projects don’t get missed • Developing “Planning Projects in the West” informational paper regarding transmission planning in the West • Educate on process, groups involved, deliverables

18. SCG Activities • The Round-Trip N-1 analysis – Hours tentatively selected for SWAT footprint • Reminder: 2020 transmission topography, Foundational Projects in service, running n-1 and perhaps selected n-2 contingencies • What other hours of the 2020 case are of interest?

19. SCG Activities • Plot of March 15, 2020 showing load and load net renewables in the 24-hour period. Hour 12 shows the largest “delta” between plots.

20. Questions? LeeAnn Torkelson Salt River Project Contact information: LeeAnn.Torkelson@srpnet.com 602.236.0973