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Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates

Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates. Olivier Brunet OECD Statistics Directorate. Topics. National indicators for zones Methodology Publication of results Alternative approaches for zones

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Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates

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  1. Calculation of Normalised Business and Consumer Confidence Indicators and Zone Aggregates Olivier Brunet OECD Statistics Directorate

  2. Topics • National indicators for zones • Methodology • Publication of results • Alternative approaches for zones • Comparison with World and Euro confidence indicators • Conclusions and future work

  3. National indicators for zones (Manufacturing)

  4. National indicators for zones (consumer)

  5. Methodology • Periodicity 1. Quarterly data refer to the first month of the quarter 2. Quarterly data refer to second month of the quarter 3. Quarterly data refer to second month of the quarter with 3rd last month extrapolated 4. Quarterly data refer to third month of the quarter

  6. Methodology (following) • Smoothing - MCD (Months for cyclical Dominance) - QCD (Quarter for Cyclical Dominance) • Standardisation / Normalisation Substract the mean and then divide by the mean of the absolute values of the differences from the mean.

  7. Methodology (following) • Weighting (GDP-PPP)

  8. Methodology (final) • Aggregation - 90 % of total weight for Major 7 countries - 60 % of total weight for other zones: . OECD total . Euro area . Big 6 Non OECD area . World proxy

  9. Publication of results (manufacturing)

  10. Publication of results (consumers)

  11. Publication of results (manufacturing)

  12. Publication of results (manufacturing)

  13. Publication of results (manufacturing)

  14. Publication of results (consumers)

  15. Publication of results (consumers)

  16. Publication of resultsManufacturing and consumers

  17. 3 Alternative Approaches

  18. Comparison of World and Euro area confidence indicators

  19. World Business Confidence Indicators

  20. Euro area Business Confidence Indicators

  21. Conclusions • Publication of results: • Business confidence indicators (manufacturing) (Euro Area, Major 7, OECD Total, OECD Asia Pacific, Big 6 Non EODC, World proxy) • Consumer confidence indicator (Euro Area, Major 7, OECD Total) • Methodology: • Use of the option de-trending

  22. Future work • Calculation of country specific business confidence indicators for Non EU countries • Incorporation of consumer confidence indicator (India, Indonesia, Russia) • Extension of calculation of zone aggregates (NAFTA , Big 4 European, OECD Europe, EU15, OECD Asia, ..) • Calculate regional or zone confidence indicators for other sectors • Use of alternative weights (ex: share of imports and exports)

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