Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Structure of the presentation: Gudrun (winter storm 2005) meteorology Gudrun sea level

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 19

Structure of the presentation: Gudrun (winter storm 2005) meteorology Gudrun sea level - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

  • Uploaded on

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Structure of the presentation: Gudrun (winter storm 2005) meteorology Gudrun sea level' - monifa

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
1st INTERNATIONAL ASTRA CONFERENCE“ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGE?CONSEQUENCES OF THE WINTER STORM 2005”MAY 18-20, 2006Klaipeda (Lithuania)Consequences of the winter storm 2005 in Estonia; possible changes in mean and extreme sea levels due to climate changeÜlo Suursaar, Estonian Marine Institute, Univ. of Tartu(ASTRA - Are Kont group)
Structure of the presentation:
  • Gudrun (winter storm 2005) meteorology
  • Gudrun sea level
  • Hydrodynamic modelling of Gudrun impacts
  • Past sea level trends 1923-05 (aver., max, min)
  • Influence of climate change on sea level
  • Influence on hydrodynamic processes
  • Further sea level developments, return periods


* This on-line version is due to technical considerations a shorter version of the original 39-slide presentation, given at Klaipeda.

The presentation is based on published/submitted papers:

Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., Otsmann, M., Saaremäe, I., Kuik, J., Merilain, M. 2006. Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters. - Boreal Environment Res., 11, 2, 143-159.

Suursaar, Ü., Jaagus, J., Kullas, T. 2006. Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate. - Boreal Environment Res., 11, 2, 123-142.


Tõnisson, H., Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Suursaar, Ü., Kont, A., Rivis, R. 2006.Coastal Damages on Saaremaa Island, Estonia, Caused by the Extreme Storm and Flooding on January, 9 2005. – Journal of Coastal Research (submitted).

Suursaar, Ü., Sooäär, J. 2006. Decadal variations in mean and extreme sea level values along the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea. –Tellus A (submitted).

Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T. 2006. Influence of wind climate changes on mean sea level and current regime in the coastal waters of West Estonia, the Baltic Sea. – Oceanologia (submitted).

Surge height depends on - background Baltic sea level before the event- cyclone trajectory (i.e. wind speed and direction). For Pärnu the most dangerous trajectories lie between the red arrows.
2D hindcast modelling of sea level and flows:24 km3 water entered the Gulf of Riga, strong flushing, coastal erosion, etc.
The areas of potential inundation in Pärnu City (45 000 residents) in case of 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 m sea level rise.
storminess in estonia at vilsandi island data compiled by j jaagus see also suursaar et al 2006b
Storminess in Estonia (at Vilsandi Island) data compiled by J.Jaagus, see also Suursaar et al., 2006b
Sea level and surge statistics in Estonia

Tide gauges: 3-4 mareographs + tide poles

List of further figures:
  • Seasonality in sea level (and NAO) trends
  • Seasonal structure of correlations: NAO/ Sea level/ Storminess
  • Seasonal structure of Pärnu max, mean and min sea levels
  • 11 year running averages and corrected linear trendlines
  • Results of 2D modelled sea levels, Gulf of Riga
  • Modelled influence of changes in westerlies
  • Change in flow regime (cumulated fluxes) due to enhanced
  • S, SW, E winds at Järve (Saaremaa Island):
  • annual bottom stress could increase 2-3 fold
  • Return periods based on Pärnu max sea level data 1923-2005
Pärnu hourly data histogram,

n=369 071, ca 15%=50 000, nout =ca 19h