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Trends in World Tourism

Trends in World Tourism. Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, UNWTO Regional Representative for Europe. UNWTO Seminar on “Tourism Marketing in a Modern Competitive Environment” 21 March 2007, Moscow (Russian Federation). demand sustained by economic growth = World GDP +5.1%

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Trends in World Tourism

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  1. Trends in World Tourism Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, UNWTO Regional Representative for Europe UNWTO Seminar on “Tourism Marketing in a Modern Competitive Environment” 21 March 2007, Moscow (Russian Federation)

  2. demand sustained by economic growth = World GDP +5.1% avian flu did no serious harm, but is still a threat increased immunity towards external threats Israel/Lebanon conflict did temporarily divert tourism flows, but did not stop travel rising fuel prices did not withheld travellers (might have affected long-haul destinations as Australia, NZ); paradoxically might have favoured short-haul air traffic over private car International Tourism in 2006

  3. 2006 results maintained strength • 842 million international tourist arrivals • Consolidation of the strong results of 2004 and 2005 • + 36 million tourist arrivals as compared to 2005 + 4.5% Source: World Tourism Organization

  4. International Tourism 2006 Consolidation of growth • Africa growth almost doubles the world rate • Europe performs above expectations • Asia & Pacific consolidates position • Results in the Americas much impacted by Canada and Mexico • Middle East on the positive side despite obstacles

  5. Source: World Tourism Organization

  6. 36 million more… Europe + 17 million (47%) Asia and the Pacific + 12 million (33%) Middle East + 1,5 million (4%) Africa + 3 million (8%) Americas + 3 million (8%) Source: World Tourism Organization

  7. Europe – beyond expectations • several sports and cultural events • terrorist plot in the UK did not stop demand • Northern destinations growing above average • slowdown in Central & Eastern Europe in spite of good results in many destinations • special note to Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, France and Italy

  8. International Tourism in Europe, 2006 International Tourist Arrivals 458 million (+3.9%) or 54 % of the world total International Tourism Receipts, 2005 € 280 billion or 51% of the world total Receipts per arrival € 625 Central and Eastern Europe 88 mn (+1.0%) € 26 bn (2005) Northern Europe 56 mn (+6.6%) € 43 bn (2005) Western Europe 149 mn (+4.3%) € 98 bn (2005) Southern Mediterranean Europe 165 mn (+4.2%) € 113 bn (2005)

  9. Central & Eastern Europe - one of the most dynamic subregions, but slowing the pace Southern / Mediterranean: 3.6% Europe’s average annual growth rate 1990 – 2006 = 3.5% Western Europe: 2% Central & Eastern: 6.7% Northern Europe: 3.7% * Preliminary data Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

  10. Top Tourism Destinations in Central & Eastern Europe, 2005* * 2004 data Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

  11. Inbound Tourism in the Russian Federation • International Tourist Arrivals (2005) • 19.9 million= stable over 2004 • 23% market share inCentral and Eastern Europe and 4.5% in Europe Data for 2006 +1.5% in Visitor Arrivals +27% in International Tourism Receipts up to September • International Tourism Receipts (2005) • US$ 5.6 billion = +7% over 2004 • 17% share inCentral and Eastern Europe and 2% in Europe • average receipts per arrival : US$ 265 vs US$ 335 in Central and Eastern Europe Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

  12. favourable economic situation growth in GDP (and per capita income) strong rouble (appreciated 4% vs US$ and 3% vs euro) improved infrastructure in the country: new highways, modernization of airports visa formalities to enter the Russian Federation and for outbound tourists from Russia Increase of gasoline and natural gas prices Factors influencing tourism in theRussian Federation in 2006

  13. Traditional and emerging source markets Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

  14. Outbound Tourism in the Russian Federation • International Tourism Expenditure (2005) • US$ 17.8 billion : + 13% over 2004 • 9th top spender market in the world • Expenditure per capita: US$ 125 vs US$ 99 in Central and Eastern Europe Data for 2006 +3.5% in Trips Abroad +5% in International Tourism Expenditure up to September • Trips abroad • 28.4 milliontrips abroad: + 16% over 2004 • 4th source market in Europe in volume of trips abroad Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

  15. 2007 Outlook • Sustained growth in international tourist arrivals = + 4% • Favorable economic situation = sustained GDP growth +4.9% • 2007 = 870 million international tourist arrivals

  16. Forecast 2007 *Preliminary results Source: World Tourism Organization

  17. World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

  18. Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength is not coming from advanced economies Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

  19. Emerging market and developing economies, GDP growth Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

  20. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision 1,6 bn 1,0 bn 842 m Source: World Tourism Organization

  21. Thank you! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org

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