Patterns of conflict and cooperation in Northern Europe 01.07.2009

1. Patterns of conflict and cooperation in Northern Europe01.07.2009 Associate Professor Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University

2. Academic Menu • What is Baltic and …Nordic? • Post-Communist Transformation in the Baltics • Go West • Baltics and Russia • Eastern Neighbourhood • Baltic Sea Strategy

3. What is “Baltic”? • The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).

4. Theoretical Guidance • Regions within and among states • Meta-regions, Regions, Sub-regions, Trans-regions • Rationalist-Reflectivist divide • Constructivism, Identity (US-Them) and Language Power • “We will hunt them down, smoke them out and bring them to justice” • Regions lie where politicians want them to lie

5. Regional trajectories in the Baltics • Quantification of narratives • 4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and Eastern) Europe • Statements of key policy makers • 2 environments for narratives

7. Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004

8. Self-affiliation to the region

9. Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement

10. Looking for Concepts in Norden • Prime Ministers’ Statements • Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) • Nordic/Northern/North • Baltic Sea Region • Region • Security

11. The Pool of Speeches after 2004 (313) • Denmark 47 statements • Finland: 104 statements • Iceland: 46 statements • Norway: 95 statements • Sweden: 21 statement

12. Denmark • Amount of terms: 70 (4 neutral, 66 biased) • Terms with “Nordic”: 6 (2 neutral, 4 biased) • Terms with “Northern”/”the North”: 2 (neutral) • Terms with “Baltic Sea”: 22 (biased) • Terms with “Baltic”: 19 (biased) • Terms with “Baltic countries/states”: 4 (biased)

13. Denmark • Baltic Sea region as a “dynamic region”, that has potentials and is growing • The Baltic Sea as a uniting factor: cooperation, mostly in economic and energy issues • Denmark as a “Northern European country” • Baltic countries belong to Baltic Sea Region • Security appears everywhere and in almost every meaning; most often: energy security, social security, economic security, homeland/military security in terms of terrorism and the fight against it (in Afghanistan, Iraq)

14. Finland

15. Finland • Social security is one of the central ingredients for Nordic identity. • Nordic as a certain model, attributing a certain system of the welfare state and for the state's involvement in public policy. • Basic concepts of Region: The Nordic Region (Scandinavia also once called “The Nordic Sisters”), the Baltic Region, The Arctic Region (including North-West Russia) and the European Region (EU). Very frequently mentioned during 2006 is the establishing of the Northern Dimension, including Scandinavia and the Baltic States, within the EU. • The European Union as region is especially mentioned outside Europe (cf. Latin America). • Security for Finland appears as a very multi-dimensional and therefore not restricted to the term of military security. Also Security of Energy Supply, Social Security, Importance of a common European Security Policy.

16. Iceland

17. Iceland • In 2008 “Nordic” refers to the “other Nordic countries” and the Nordic council; connected to economy issues, especially in the times of the economy crisis • The Nordic countries as fellows, friends, community and our neighbours  increasing Nordic cooperation and evoking something like a Nordic togetherness in times of economic need • Nordic region as strong and leading region in the world (in economy, technology,…) • No mentioning of Baltic/Baltic-Sea • Security issuesconnected to the withdrawal of the USforces • Security almost always as military security; no mentioning of a Nordic security, just NATO and the US are important in this context

18. Norway • Terms with “Nordic”: 18 (11 neutral, 7 biased) • Terms with “Northern”/”the North”: 24 (6 neutral, 18 biased) • Terms with “Baltic Sea”: 8 (2 neutral, 6 biased) • Terms with “Baltic”: 1 (biased) • Terms with “region(al)” (referring to Nordic/Baltic (Sea) region, but standing alone): 9 (2 neutral, 7 biased)

19. Norway • Nordic/Northern: partnership and cooperation is stressed; top in economic/welfare/health/technology issues • Baltic States are not mentioned • Baltic Sea regionis not often mentioned, but used to refer to cooperation inenergy/economic areas and to include Russia in this cooperation • Security:hard security issues, (military/domestic/international)  new challenges: terrorism and WMD; soft security issues  energy, (economic/social)

20. Sweden

21. Sweden • The concept of region appears comparatively seldom. The focus is on the economic aspect of regional integration. • The Baltic states are only mentioned in the biased environment, and he counts Poland also to the Baltic Region. • Norden is rarely mentioned. • Security is about Security of Energy. Military security plays no important role in the Swedish international statements.

22. Summing Up • Nordic:Iceland: Starts to refer to the Nordic Partnership only in the recent crisis; Sweden: only refers only once to the Nordic Cooperation; Denmark: defines itself as part of the Nordic region, but does not emphasize this concept very frequently;Norway: very similar to Denmark, the Nordicity is emphasized more; Finland clearly defines itself as a Nordic country.Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy. • Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region. • Baltic Sea Region:The Baltic Sea region is especially important for Denmark, Sweden, Finland and to a lesser degree Norway and Iceland, in terms of economic or trade routes, energy security and environmental issues. Baltic Sea Region as a region that should be strengthened.Finland and Norway also put emphasis on the Arctic/Barents-Region which includes cooperation with Russia. • Security:Security is not important for Nordic identity as in the Baltic case. For Norway, Iceland, Denmark NATO is the most important guarantor of security. For Finland it is the EU. Norway refers to cooperation with the EU security policy.Hard security issues especially important for Denmark and Iceland. Energy security important for all states andincreasing.

23. Conclusions • Construction of political regions in terms of discursive (quantitative and qualitative; in neutral and biased environments) confirmed dominant trilateral Baltic sub-regional identity in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which revolved around sovereignty, security and its derivative, Transatlantic integration vs. Russia. • In the Nordic case security is not the binding case and there is a drive towards the Baltic sea region. • The trajectories of constructing regional identities in the the Norden and the Baltics cross each other meet only not in Baltiscandia but in the Baltic sea area which is downplayed to low politics in the Baltics.

24. Nordic-Baltic Chemistry • Change of Nordic balance after the Cold War • Norms entrepreneurs and adjacent internationalism • Gravity towards the Baltics • First to recognise and open embassies • Nordic values of democracy, stability and cooperation • Assistance in democracy and civil society • Significant Nordic FDI in the Baltics • Baltics in the Nordic Investment Bank • Close political cooperation – NB8 (NB6) • Strategic partnership with Poland • Where is Central (and Eastern) Europe?

25. Post-Communist Transformation Quadruple transition: • Market Economy • Democracy • Nation and State building • Transatlantic integration • Different from Southern Europe

26. Why Europe and NATO? • 1995 Association agreements with EU, 1997-99 start of negotiations, 2004 twin membership • Come-back Home • Security (hard and soft) and “El Dorado” • Cooperation, Joint-decision making, • Active foreign policy • Europeanisation (Westernisation) as a two-way street: Customise Europe • 2004 membership: benefits and shortcomings

27. Getting used in “paradise” • Schengen – Yes • Euro – No • European Neighbourgood – Yes • Common Energy security – No • EU-Russia relations – ?

28. Reflection Group • What are European Challenges of Tomorrow?

29. Europe and its Challenges • EU enlargement – success story: peace, stability, derivative of values • Continuity of Enlargement. Copenhagen criteria • EU-Russia and post-PCA: Reciprocity • Common Energy Policy: Mission Impossible? (Nord Stream, Druzhba) • Evaluation of Totalitarian Regimes • Climate Change: Renewables and Renaissance of nuclear • European Neighbourhood as Ring of Friends • EU as a transforming power: free trade agreements, economic integration, sectoral agreements in energy, transport, migration, etc, promote people-to people contacts • Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, South Caucasus • Kosovo, Kaliningrad region • Guidelines: Strong Institutions, Solidarity, Good Practice

30. The Baltic states and Russia

31. The Baltic states and Russia • Carl Bildt 1994: Litmus test idea • Lukewarm Russian and Baltic relations • Identity is the key: The role of Us/Them • Baltic return to Europe and distancing from Russia • Russia in search for national identity after 1991 • Russia as successor of the Soviet Union and Russian empire • Hostages of history? • 70% believe the Baltic occupation was voluntary • 80% of the Russian parliament consist of nationalistic forces • Biggest enemies – small ex-USSR states

34. Sovereign “Democracy”? • Breaking Georgian Territorial Integrity • Control of Media • Violation of Human Rights • Increasing Racism • Crimes in Chechnya • Political Destruction of YUKOS Company • Notorious and unresolved murders • Information, Cyber Attacks and Revision of History • Manipulation with Energy Resources • Embargos for Lithuania, Poland,Georgia, Moldova, Czech Republic • Conflicts with Georgia, Estonia and UK

35. Energy issues • Diversification, renewables, energy efficiency • Nuclear: Ignalina Power Station: to be or not to be? • Gas: Nord Stream gas pipeline, LNG, Interconnections • Oil: Druzhba is not Friendship • Electricity: Estlink (Estlink 2), SwedLit, LitPolink

38. Eastern Partnership • What is Eastern Europe? • “We” turned to “Them”, “They” turned to “Neighbours” • Wider Europe – 2003, ENP – 2004, EP – 2009 • Commitment to common values (democracy and human rights, rule of law, good governance, market economy principles and sustainable development). • EP: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, 600 mln. euro, Biannual meetings (33 countries). Visa scrapping, Free Trade. • Customising Neighbours – It Takes Two to Tango • Challenges: Russia, Competition with Mediterranean union, EU unwillingness.

39. Baltic Sea Strategy (to be in October) Problems: • severe ecological danger • uneven economic development • insufficient energy transmission and supply networks, gaps in transport links • shortcomings in maritime safety and security • 8 of the 9 countries bordering the Baltic Sea are EU members • Many of the challenges are in EU policy fields • Strong need for coordination of numerous stakeholders and countries involved • The EU is an independent player with respected authority • The EU already runs regional development programmes in the region providing many opportunities for cooperation • In Dec 2007, the Member States asked the Commission to prepare the strategy

40. BSR: Fields of Action • Environment: to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea Region, the largest brackish water system in the world • Economy: to make the Baltic Sea Region more prosperous by supporting balanced economic development • Energy and transport: to make the region more accessible and attractive, for its inhabitants, for its labour force and for tourists • Safety and Security: to make the region safer and more secure

41. BSR: 2B or not 2B • Does the BSR exist? • Realist, Pluralist and Postmodern Approaches • BSR Strategy – nil novi sub sole? • Challenges: Money crunch, New Northern Dimension (no money, no institutions), Lack of Identity, Bilateralisation (e.g. Nord Stream), Southern vs. Eastern Dimensions, Inclusion of Russia