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A Flood Management Focused Vulnerability Pilot Study of the Tuolumne Watershed

CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES. A Flood Management Focused Vulnerability Pilot Study of the Tuolumne Watershed. April 22 nd , CWEMF Romain Maendly, CA DWR, but… A much bigger team which includes multiple colleagues from USACE, Academia and DWR. Outline.

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A Flood Management Focused Vulnerability Pilot Study of the Tuolumne Watershed

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  1. CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES A Flood Management Focused Vulnerability Pilot Study of the Tuolumne Watershed April 22nd, CWEMF Romain Maendly, CA DWR, but… A much bigger team which includes multiple colleagues from USACE, Academia and DWR

  2. Outline • Why this project – Background, goals, project overview • General study design for vulnerability assessment • Adaptive planning strategy

  3. Background and Purpose • Past studies have shown increasing flood risk in the Central Valley in the future due to climate change. • 2017 CVFPP Update Climate Change Study has integrated climate change risks in flood planning in the Central Valley. • This project aims to enhance and extend climate change vulnerability assessment efforts and improve stakeholder understanding.

  4. Goals • Quantify deep uncertainties in flood and drought prediction under climate change • Formulate a systematic framework for assessing future risks and developing economically efficient, robust, and flexible plans to mitigate risk • Inform other project/planning efforts Projected Range of Likely Climate Changes by 2050 4 3 Change in Temperature (C) 2 1 0 30 10 20 20 10 0 30 Change in Precipitation (%)

  5. General Study Design This Presentation Global Climate Model Projections Operations and Planning Models (HEC-WAT) Previous Presentation Adaptive Planning Weather Generator Systematic Climate Perturbations System Response Surface/ Stress Test System Base Performance/Probabilistic Vulnerability Assessment

  6. System Based Performance HEC-WAT HMS RES SIM RAS FIA Weather Generator Simulation Data and Results (DSS)

  7. HEC-HMS Model Overview • 27 total subbasins • Unimpaired flow simulation • Calibration points: Unimpaired inflow to each reservoir and Dry Creek @ Modesto • Results compared to daily unimpaired flow estimates from Steiner FERC model

  8. HEC-ResSim Model Overview Three upstream reservoirs San Joaquin Pipeline Combined Canals Don Pedro Combined Irrigation Canals Inflow from HMS

  9. HEC-RAS Model Overview • Based from CVFED Model • Calibrated with the 2011 and 2017 events • Model handles extreme events (~320,000cfs)

  10. HEC-FIA • The inventory is a combination of point structure data from: • CVFPP 2017 Update’s HEC-FDA • And, the National Structure Inventory • Warning System/Time Feedback based on local input • Calibrated based on the 1997 and 2017 events

  11. Vulnerability Assessment Metrics • Flood Risk • Expected Annual Damage / Life Loss • Population and Assets in 100yr Floodplain • Water Supply/Irrigation • Don Pedro storage on Apr 1st , July 1st and Oct 1st • Don Pedro deliveries to irrigation channel • Environmental • San Joaquin River Basin Index • Evapotranspiration

  12. Vulnerability Assessment Example Maintain current performance Worse than Historical Annual Average Inflow Volume: 1.9 MAF 1000 years of model simulations at each point Don Pedro Inflow Volume Change (Oct01-Sep30) Change in Volume (TAF) 4 Current conditions estimate 3 +200TAF 2 Change in Temperature (C) 1 0 30 10 20 10 0 20 30 Change in Precipitation (%)

  13. Vulnerability Assessment Example Annual Average Inflow Volume: 1.9 MAF Don Pedro Water Supply Season (Average Flow Volume: 983 TAF) Don Pedro Flood Control Season(Average Flow Volume: 915 TAF) +350TAF -150TAF

  14. Likelihoods

  15. Likelihoods

  16. Likelihoods

  17. Vulnerability Assessment Example Annual Average Inflow Volume: 1.9 MAF Don Pedro Water Supply Season (Average Flow Volume: 983 TAF) Don Pedro Flood Control Season(Average Flow Volume: 915 TAF)

  18. Integrated Adaptation Strategies Envisioned • Based on the system’s vulnerabilities, formulate robust actions and flexible plan to deal with future risks and uncertainties. • Flood-MAR • Floodplain transitory storage • Conservation easements • By-pass • FIRO • Increase capacity of infrastructures Projects/actions that foster sustainability and integrated water resources management

  19. Adaptation Analysis Example • Current Expected Life Loss based on the 2017 CVFPP Update: •  149 life at risk • 2067 life loss projection using median climate change projection (~3 °C and +4.5% Precip.) •  420 life at risk (+271) • What if the median projection is median projection is wrong? Hypothetical Expected Annual Life Loss +271 life at risk

  20. DWR Use of Decision Scaling • CA 4th Climate Change Assessment • “Climate Change Risk Faced by the California Central Valley Water Resource System” • Climate Action Plan • Phase II: Analysis Guidance • Phase III: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan. • Flood-MAR Program • Merced Reconnaissance Study • CVFPP 2022 Update • Tuolumne Watershed Pilot Study • Potential additional pilots Session 12: Tuesday Morning 10:00 – 11:45 am

  21. Next Steps • Vulnerability Assessments • Identify Adaptive Strategies • Documentation • Continue to Engage and Communicate the Study Status with Locals and other Stakeholders

  22. Questions • RomainMaendly, • California Department of Water Resources • Romain. Maendly@water.ca.gov

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