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Flood Vulnerability Analysis. Session 2 Dr. Heiko Apel. Risk Analysis Flood Vulnerability Analysis. Learning objectives. Get familiar: With the principles of flood vulnerability analysis With the elements at risk Learn: The exposure mapping of elements at risk

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slide1

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

Session 2

Dr. HeikoApel

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

learning objectives
Learning objectives
  • Get familiar:
    • With the principles of flood vulnerability analysis
    • With the elements at risk
  • Learn:
    • The exposure mapping of elements at risk
    • Systematic classification of flood losses
    • How to collect food loss data and build flood loss models in general
    • Specific insights in the flood loss analysis of buildings, agriculture and lives
  • Understand:
    • The importance of impact and resilience on flood losses

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

vulnerability analysis provides
Vulnerability analysis provides
  • Understanding of vulnerabilities in order to identify efficient measures to reduce them and to minimize impact of future floods
  • The foundation for cost-effective planning of flood mitigation
  • The inputs for realistic flood scenario modeling emergency planning
  • Data for risk mapping to be used to improve public flood risk awareness, which can motivate precautionary measures
  • Input for financial appraisals
    • for (re-)insurance todetermine insurance rates, estimate probable maximum loss (PML)
    • to support disaster response and governmental decisions about loss compensation immediately after floods
  • Data for the quantitative comparison of different risks within community or region

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

elements at risk
Elements at Risk
  • Economic sectors
    • Housing
    • Infrastructure (traffic, power supply, water supply, administration)
    • Food production
    • Transport
    • Trade
  • Cultural sectors
    • Cultural heritage
    • Daily life
  • Social sectors
    • Population
    • Health care
    • Food supply
    • Mobility
  • Environmental Sectors
    • Ecosystem stability
    • Environmental health (Pollution)
    • Biodiversity

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

exposure databases
Exposure Databases
  • Data should reflect the location and value of the assets at risk
  • Use analog maps or preferably GeoInformationSystems (GIS) for spatial reference, display and intersection
  • Explore the capabilities of remote sensing (RS) products for mapping of elements at risk
  • Most commonly used satellite imagery libraries: MODIS, LandSAT, ASTER, Quickbird, SPOT
  • Utilize statistical databases and spatial disaggregation methods to distribute aggregated values (e.g. dasymetric mapping)

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

exposure databases cont
Exposure Databases (cont.)

Examples:

Micro-scale: detailed topography and building location

Meso-scale: CORINE land use data set

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

increase of flood plains and losses
Increase of flood plains and losses
  • Loss increase in the last decades:
  • Caused by:
    • Increasing number of disasters
    • River training
    • Increasing use of floodplains (urbanization, population growth)
    • The accumulation of valuable goods
    • Decreasing awareness of flood risk

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood impact classification
Flood impact classification

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

factors affecting flood loss
Factors affecting flood loss
  • Example: flood loss of buildings
  • Impact and resistance should be defined for every element at risk

Source: Thieken et al. (2005)

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

the role of awareness and preparedness
The role of awareness and preparedness
  • Significantly reduces flood losses
  • Example: loss in private households in the flood of 2002 in Germany (questionnaire results, n  2150)

Mean damage reduction due to precautionary measures:

29.000 € (buildings) 31.000 € (assets) 24.000 € (utilities)

Source: Kreibich et al. (2005)

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

scales of loss estimation
Scales of loss estimation

Scale of analysis determines data and methods:

  • Micro-scale
    • Object specific
    • Detailed input datasets (direct surveys) required
    • Cities, communes, counties
    • Results aggregated, but detailed results available
  • Meso-scale
    • Regional to national
    • Aggregated input data (statistics, census data, land use units)
    • Cumulated loss estimates, no site specific interpretation possible

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood loss data collection
Flood loss data collection

Is the first step for establishment and evaluation of loss models:

  • Problem: data availability and compatibility
  • Different stakeholders (e.g. insurance industry, science, public administration) collect data on flood losses with different methods:
  • Methods to collect data
    • Building Surveyors – high level of standardization, consistent data quality, limited set of parameters, expensive method (100 € per case*)
    • Questionnaires – answers dependent on respondents, unknown data quality, representativeness via sampling, lower cost (25-40 € per case*)

* Prices refer to Germany

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood loss assessment buildings
Flood loss assessment - buildings
  • Region specific
  • Damage types:
    • Structural damage
    • Contents
  • Differentiated into
    • Building types: construction, materials, size, stories
    • Building uses: private, commercial, industrial
  • Loss estimation
    • Absolute or relative damage
    • Loss functions: functional relationship between flood indicators and damage (be careful to consider all factors)
    • Solution: rule based loss model

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood loss assessment buildings cont
Flood loss assessment – buildings (cont.)

Step 1: damage ratio estimation by water depths and rule based model FLEMOps (step functions)

  • Rule-based flood Loss Estimation Model FLEMO (GFZ)

Step 2: modification of loss ratio (FLEMOps+)

Source: Büchele et al. (2006)

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood loss assessment agriculture
Flood loss assessment - agriculture

Two-step process:

  • Relative loss estimation respective to season
  • Estimation of regional market value of crops

Loss of wheat crops in an early summer flood in East Germany

Risk Analysis

Flood Vulnerability Analysis

flood loss assessment loss of life
Flood loss assessment – loss of life
  • Data-based empirical approach (based on flash flood and dam failure data in USA, LOL = f(PAR)*, Source:Brown & Graham 1988)
  • Process-based approaches(simulates exposure of people in buildings etc., evacuation possibilities and survival rates)

*Loss of life (LOL), Population at risk (PAR)

Risk Analysis

Flood Risk Analysis

flood loss assessment loss of life cont
Flood loss assessment– loss of life (cont.)
  • Example of processed-based approach:
  • Hydraulic experiments by REDSCAM (2000), Helsinki University of Technology, Finland

Risk Analysis

Flood Risk Analysis