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IMPACT : A Network of Models

IMPACT is a modeling-data platform built on modularity and interoperability, harmonizing data and driving model specifications. Data harmonization integrates models using common input data, improving data quality and sharing. The suite of models covers food production, livestock, water, and more. Water models play a crucial role in IMPACT due to agriculture's high water consumption. The Water Model assesses water availability and optimizes supply for different needs. Collaboration with experts ensures quality inputs for model development.

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IMPACT : A Network of Models

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  1. IMPACT : A Network of Models Daniel Mason-D’Croz Shahnila Islam

  2. What is IMPACT ? • A modeling-data platform built on modularity and interoperability • Harmonized Data • Data drivenmodel specification • More flexible tomeet user needs

  3. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control

  4. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control SPAM

  5. Why Data Harmonization? • IMPACT integrates various models, which often use similar input data • Better data sharing, common definitions, and clear responsibility of data processing removes redundancy and improves quality control SPAM IMPACT

  6. IMPACT Data-Model Environment • FAO • Climate Data • SPAM • IMPACT Models • Geospatial and Subnational Data • Exogenous IMPACT Parameters Land-Use Model • Crop Models • Hydrology

  7. Share Data • FAO • Crop Production • Livestock Production • Supply-Utilization • Food Balance Sheets • Water Stress • Climate Data • GCMS • Generated Weather • Geospatial and Subnational Data • Irrigation • Subnational Statistics • Crop suitability maps • Population Density • Exogenous IMPACT Parameters • Yield, Area Growth • Elasticities • Prices (AMAD) • Population • GDP

  8. Models • SPAM - Spatial Production Allocation Model • Land-Use Model • DSSAT Crop Models • Biofuel Model • Hydrology Model • Water Basin Management Model • Water Stress Model • Food Model • Crops • Livestock • Sugar • Oilseeds

  9. FAO Data

  10. Processing FAO Data • FAO Bulk Download for 3-year average around 2005 (04-06) • Harmonized SPAM/IMPACT commodity, and geographic definitions • Bayesian Work Plan • Iterate with new information

  11. Data Harmonization and Quality • Too many cooks • Climate change is modeled in Water and Crop models for IMPACT • Need to use same initial and processed climate data • Ensure crop shocks and water shocks are compatible

  12. Climate Change Consistency

  13. Data Harmonization and Quality • Building common geographical definitions • Standardize mapping of data • Share data (initial and processed)

  14. Geospatial Data Users

  15. Data Independence • Cleaner Model Code • Facilitate model transfer and training • Data Processing and Model design are independent tasks • Model can run different data sources and aggregations without modification

  16. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Current Models • Food Model • Crop Production Model • Livestock Production Model • Processed Goods Production Models (e.g. sugar) • Water Models • Crop Models • Malnutrition Model • Welfare and Cost-Benefit Model

  17. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Models under Development • Fish Model • New Livestock Model • Biofuels Model

  18. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Modularity = “a la carte” • Use the models you need, turn off those you don’t • Standardize data transfer • Information Flows • Dynamic or Iterative interaction

  19. IMPACT – A Suite of Models • Three ways to link modules: • Exogenous: Information flows in one direction • Linked dynamically: Two-way information flow between years • Endogenous: Module equations are solved simultaneously

  20. One-way Model Integration

  21. One-way Model Integration

  22. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  23. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  24. DSSAT to IMPACT conversion IMPACT Overview

  25. One-way Model Integration

  26. Endogenous Model Integration

  27. Linked Dynamic Model Integration

  28. Why water is endogenousin IMPACT • Irrigation critical for securing food supply • Accounts for less than 20% of global cropland • But ~40% of global cereals production • Key to boosting agricultural productivity • Agriculture is the largest water user globally • 70% global water withdraw • 90% global water consumption • Agriculture is a major driver of water scarcity

  29. How does the Water Model Work? • Global hydrological module (GHM) assesses water availability • Water Simulation Module (WSM) optimizes water supply according to demands • Domestic • Industrial • Livestock • Irrigation • Environment • Provides hydro-climatic (water) stress to IMPACT food module

  30. Water Stress: Inputs and Outputs IWSM • Avail irrigation water • Water stress per (crop, FPU) • Effective rainfall • Producer Prices • Irrigation yield shocks • Rainfed yield shocks

  31. Year Loop Repeat each year • Step 1: Determine Areas • Step 2: Re-Adjust Prices Food Model Crop Water Allocation Irrigated Areas Water Delivered per Area Water Stress IWSM

  32. Conclusion • We draw inputs from experts in agriculture, demographics, population, climate, and hydrology • We don’t recreate the wheel, instead we provide a flexible framework that connects results from many models for more nuanced and realistic scenarios Water, Crop Models, Climate Change Population and Economic growth The IMPACT Model Farmer/Consumer Behavior IMPACT Overview

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