Population

1. Population

2. Population agglomerations • Population agglomeration – A process involving the clustering or concentrating of people. • East Asia • South Asia • Europe • Southeast Asia • Northeast North America • West Africa

3. East Asia • Eastern China, Japan, Korean peninsula & Taiwan • ¼ World’s Population • 5/6 live in PRC • China: ½ of population work as farmers (rural) • Japan & Korea • 40% live in 3 major cities (Tokyo, Osaka, & Seoul)

4. South Asia • India, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka • ¼ World Population • ¾ live in India • Most are farmers in rural areas

5. Europe • 3rd Largest (including European portion of Russia) • 1/9 of world population • ¾ live in cities • > 10% farmers

6. Southeast Asia • Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, & Papua New Guinea • Largest = Java = 100 million • Most work as farmers in rural areas

7. Emerging Population Concentrations Eastern North America West Africa West Africa, including south facing coast & Nigeria 2% of the world’s population Nigeria = most populous African nation, ½ of this concentration Most work in agriculture • NE U.S. & SE Canada • 2% of the world’s population • Most urbanized concentration • >2% farmers

8. Ecumene vs. Non-Ecumene Ecumene Non-Ecumene Areas too harsh for settlement Dry lands Wet lands Cold lands High lands • The portion of Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement • 80% of earth’s landmass

9. Population Density • Arithmetic Density • Physiological Density • Agricultural Density

10. Arithmetic Density • The total number of people divided by the total land area • Pros • Easy to compare • Cons • Tells us “where,” but not “why”

11. Physiological Density • The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is suitable for agriculture • Pros • More meaningful • Cons • Higher = more pressure to produce more food

12. Agricultural Density • The ratio of the number of farmers to the total amount of land suitable for agriculture • MDCs • Lower agricultural density • Fewer farmers, more extensive areas • Due to better technology & finances

13. Comparison • What does it mean when we have a large difference between arithmetic & physiological density?

14. Overpopulation • Carrying capacity - The population level that can be supported, given the quantity of food, habitat, water and other life infrastructure present. • Carrying Capacity is the ability of a resource base to sustain a population • Overpopulation – The number of people in an area exceeds the capacity of the environment to support life at a decent standard of living. • Overpopulation • Too many people compared with the resources of region/country

15. Thomas Malthus • Malthus, Thomas - One of the first to argue that the world’s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food production. • Thomas Malthus • English economist • Wrote “An Essay on the Principle of Population” • Determined the world’s rate of population increase was higher than the development of food supply • Theory • Population grows geometrically • Food grows arithmetically

16. Malthus • Population has been growing quickly • Policies (political, economic, cultural) that support a growing population • Pronatalism- Policies that provide incentives for women to have children, typically in countries where population is declining. • Demographic Transition Model • Stages 2 & 3 • Limited use of contraception • Food supply has increased, but not enough to keep up with future population growth • Lack of agricultural innovation • Agrarian land converted for urban use • Environmental factors • Focus on cash crops, especially in LDCs • Climate change decreasing agricultural efficiency

17. Neo-Malthusians • Neomalthusians– Believe population growth to be a problem and provide the foundation for many antinatalist population policies. • Argue that recent growth is worse than Malthus projected • Malthus’ theory is almost 200 years old • Many LDCs are progressing due to help from MDCs rather than progressing on their own • Bigger gap between population & resources • World population is outpacing other resources other than just food • Environmental destruction • Lack of land • Non-renewable energy

18. Critics • Growth has not been geometric • Policies (political, economic, cultural) that limit growth • Antinatalism- Policies the encourage couples to limit the number of children they have. • DTM Stages 3, 4 (5???) • More use of contraception • Food supply has grown faster than predicted • New technology • More efficient • Green Revolution (high yield) • Possibilism • Growth = more production • Growth = more new inventions • New methods of transportation • New methods of food preservation

19. Declining Birth Rates Economic Contraception Cairo Conference - 1994 U.N. conference that focused on stabilizing global population at 7.27 billion by giving women greater social & economic control of their lives. Cairo Conference Focus on giving women greater social & economic control Faster than economic changes Governmental choices to distribute contraception Many oppose contraception for religious & political reasons • Improving economic conditions leads to more money on education & healthcare programs

20. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

21. Key Vocabulary • Crude Birth Rate (CBR) • Crude Death Rate (CDR) • Natural Increase Rate (NIR) • Also RNI • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) • Life Expectancy • Doubling Time

22. Defined • CBR: total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society • CDR: the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society • NIR: the percentage growth of a population in a year, computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate • TFR: the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years • IMR: the total number of deaths in a year among infants under 1 year old for every 1,000 live births in a society • Life Expectancy: the average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic & medical conditions. Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. • Doubling Time: The number of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase

24. Population Demographic transition model The demographic transition model shows how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and post-industrial one.

25. Population Demographic transition model The demographic transition model shows how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and post-industrial one. Stage 1. Birth and death rates are both high, leading to a low but stable population. High fluctuating UK pre 1760/Industrial Revolution. Remote tribal groups presently.

26. Population Demographic transition model The demographic transition model shows how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and post-industrial one. Stage 2. Birth remain high but now death rates start to fall dramatically, leading to a rising population. Early expanding UK pre 1760-1880. Peru/Sri Lanka/Kenya presently.

27. Population Demographic transition model The demographic transition model shows how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and post-industrial one. Stage 3. Birth start to fall now and death rates continue to fall, causing the population to continue to rise but less quickly now as the gap between births and deaths is closing. Late expanding UK 1880-1940 China/Cuba/Australia presently.

28. Population Demographic transition model The demographic transition model shows how a population will change over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and post-industrial one. Stage 4. Birth and death rates are now both low, causing the population to be more stable but high. Low fluctuating UK post 1940 Canada/USA/Japan.

29. High CDR Stage 1 – High Fluctuating High CBR Reasons: High IMR Lack of family planning Need for workers Children are economic assets(support parents) Religious beliefs Roman Catholics Muslims Hindus Reasons: Disease Famine War Poor hygiene & sanitation Lack of healthcare Lack of education

30. Population Demographic transition model Stage 1. Natural increase (population growth) is low because although there are a lot of births the similarly high number of deaths effectively cancels them out, leaving a low but stable population.

31. Declining CDR Stage 2 – Early Expanding High CBR Same reasons as Stage 1 Reasons: Improved healthcare Improved sanitation Improved food production Decreasing IMR Outside stimulus

32. Population Demographic transition model Stage 2. Natural increase (population growth) is high because there is now a large gap between births and deaths, increasing the population rapidly.

33. Declining CDR Stage 3 – Late Expanding Declining CBR Reasons: Changing status of women Cairo Conference Availability of family planning Lower IMR Increased standard of living Better technology = lower demand for workers Welfare/Retirement Same reasons as Stage 2

34. Population Demographic transition model Stage 3. Natural increase (population growth) remains high due to the gap between births and deaths but as this stage the increase slows as births and deaths match up again.

35. Stage 5 Stage 4…and 5? Stage 4 – Low Fluctuating CBR & CDR are low Population is stable CBR drops below CDR Population starts to decrease Officially only 4 stages Not part of the original DTM, but some geographers have added it So if there is 5, why not 6?

36. Population Demographic transition model Stage 4. Natural increase (population growth) is again low as births and deaths virtually cancel each other out, but now the population is high..

38. Epidemiologic transition

39. Epidemiologic Transition: Distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition • Abdel Omran (1971) • Stage 1 • Infectious, parasitic, accidents, animal attacks • Ex: Black Plague • Stage 2 • Receding pandemics • Ex: Cholera • Stage 3 • Degenerative & human-created diseases • Ex: Cardiovascular (heart attacks) & cancer • Stage 4 (S. Jay Olshansky & Brian Ault) • Delayed degenerative diseases • Ex: Cancer • Stage 5? • Reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases • Ex: AIDS, Malaria, Tuberculosis, H1N1

40. APHG Models - DTM

41. Population Pyramids

42. How it works… • Population Pyramid: A bar graph representing the distribution of population by age and sex • Males on the left, females on the right • Sex Ratio: The number of males per 100 females in the population • Youngest on the bottom (0-4), oldest on the top (100+) • Age Distribution: The percentage of the population within a country in each age group (broken down into 5-year intervals) • Dependency Ratio: The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64 compared to the number of people active in the work force • Generally done as a percentage of the population, sometimes as total numbers • Shape of the pyramid is generally shaped by the CBR in a country

43. Population Pyramids & DTM • Population Pyramids and the DTM can generally by applied together • Certain shapes have been associated with specific stages of the DTM

44. Pyramid for Stage 1 • Wide base = very high birth rate • Narrows very quickly = high death rate • Very few reach old age

45. Pyramid for Stage 2 • Wide base = High birth rate • Wider & taller = people living longer

46. Pyramid for Stage 3 • “Domed” shape = more people living to be older • Proportionately fewer births

47. Pyramid for Stage 4 • Small base, small top • Bulge in the middle

48. All four Stages Convex Profile Concave Profile

50. Effects of Population Growth • Rapid Growth • Need services for children • Fewer old people = less money spent on them • People move to cities to find work • Countries with the fastest growth have the fastest growing cities • Quickly constructed buildings to house workers • Often lack vital services (water, electricity, sanitation) • Some migrate to more developed countries • Slow Growth • Need services for elderly • Fewer young people = less money spent on them • Could be shortage of workers in the future • Migrants move into the country, often to work in low wage jobs that would be otherwise hard to find workers