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Oregon’s Employment Benchmark

Oregon’s Employment Benchmark. A Preliminary Estimate of July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions. Prepared By: Josh Lehner Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. Benchmarking. Employment series revisions based on more information and inclusion of QCEW data

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Oregon’s Employment Benchmark

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  1. Oregon’s Employment Benchmark A Preliminary Estimate of July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions Prepared By: Josh Lehner Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

  2. Benchmarking • Employment series revisions based on more information and inclusion of QCEW data • Previously revisions covered the October – September period (q4 through q3) • This year, BLS changed to benchmarking only through q2 (October - June) • Future revisions are likely to cover the q3 through q2 timeframe • Currently state estimates are one full year off of benchmark (CES) • Vertical line represents the last benchmarked data

  3. CES Now Playing Catch Up • 2011q4 and 2012q1 stronger than thought • Unfortunately the slowdown in mid-2011 is accurate • What about 2012q2?

  4. All Private Sector Growth • In March 2012, CES is 15,900 too low (1.2%) • 2012q1, CES is 13,400 too low on average (1.0%)

  5. Growth Essentially Matches US

  6. Individual Industry Revisions

  7. Goods Producing: Unchanged or Up

  8. Trade: Steady as She Goes • Retail continues to grow, just about inline with CES • Wholesale growth slightly lower than CES, but solid pace • T/W/U bouncing but with steady trend

  9. Professional Jobs Added • Professional and Business Services skyrocketing • 9,200 more than thought (SA) • 7,700 more (NSA) • 2/3rd Admin + Waste • No end in sight for Information and Financial Activities?

  10. Health Slowing? Others Slow & Steady

  11. Public Sector Revisions • Slightly more Federal employees than initially estimated • Local Gov’t CES looks accurate • State revisions expected to be slightly negative

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