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Oregon Employment Benchmark: July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions Analysis

Preliminary estimate by Josh Lehner from Oregon Office of Economic Analysis on employment series revisions based on additional data and QCEW inclusion. The report covers discrepancies in sector growth and public sector revisions.

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Oregon Employment Benchmark: July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions Analysis

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  1. Oregon’s Employment Benchmark A Preliminary Estimate of July 2009 – March 2012 Revisions Prepared By: Josh Lehner Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

  2. Benchmarking • Employment series revisions based on more information and inclusion of QCEW data • Previously revisions covered the October – September period (q4 through q3) • This year, BLS changed to benchmarking only through q2 (October - June) • Future revisions are likely to cover the q3 through q2 timeframe • Currently state estimates are one full year off of benchmark (CES) • Vertical line represents the last benchmarked data

  3. CES Now Playing Catch Up • 2011q4 and 2012q1 stronger than thought • Unfortunately the slowdown in mid-2011 is accurate • What about 2012q2?

  4. All Private Sector Growth • In March 2012, CES is 15,900 too low (1.2%) • 2012q1, CES is 13,400 too low on average (1.0%)

  5. Growth Essentially Matches US

  6. Individual Industry Revisions

  7. Goods Producing: Unchanged or Up

  8. Trade: Steady as She Goes • Retail continues to grow, just about inline with CES • Wholesale growth slightly lower than CES, but solid pace • T/W/U bouncing but with steady trend

  9. Professional Jobs Added • Professional and Business Services skyrocketing • 9,200 more than thought (SA) • 7,700 more (NSA) • 2/3rd Admin + Waste • No end in sight for Information and Financial Activities?

  10. Health Slowing? Others Slow & Steady

  11. Public Sector Revisions • Slightly more Federal employees than initially estimated • Local Gov’t CES looks accurate • State revisions expected to be slightly negative

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