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Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”

Mostly Yukon, NWT. Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”. Outline of Presentation. Examples of State Change from the Yukon/NWT (2 minutes) 2. Comments on the paper “Arctic State Change” (4 minutes) 3. Predicting “state change” (1 minute)

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Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”

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  1. Mostly Yukon, NWT Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”

  2. Outline of Presentation • Examples of State Change from the Yukon/NWT (2 minutes) 2. Comments on the paper “Arctic State Change” (4 minutes) 3. Predicting “state change” (1 minute) 4. Concluding Remarks/Questions (2 minutes)

  3. Chief Hyacinthe Andre, Gwich’in Chief 1948-1980 Born 1910

  4. State Changes: Examples YukonCaribou Herds in the Arctic Declines = Cod Fishery Declines in eastern Canada? Examples:Chisana Herd: recovery programSouthern Lakes Caribou: recovery program40 Mile Herd: recovery programTHESE ARE SOMEWHAT DESPERATE MEASURES TAKEN TOO LATE

  5. Cultural Change: First Nations • Residential Schools resulted in a “state change” for FNs culture (the “tipping point”) • Land Claims Agreements/Devolution: “state changes” for governance • Was the Berger Inquiry a “tipping” point?

  6. The Six Waves of Change • Land Claims • Devolution (Territorial empowerment) • New Development Assessment Acts • Regional Land Use Planning • Single Resource Mgt Plans • Big Projects Finally Arriving? (Oil and Gas, Diamonds)

  7. Comments on the Paper • Change is not allows a “state change” (not allows a “broken hockey stick”) • What are the other types of change? (slow decline/or rises?) • Which types of change are applicable to the Arctic?

  8. Comments on the Paper • Late 1980-1990’s State Change: decoupling of the south/north: agreed • understates the emergence of the “self-determination” aspects of devolution/land claim/self government

  9. Comments on the Paper: • Agree with the current “state change” that is happening as a result of climate changes and globalization • Some doubt that future governance is either a ecosystem based management future or the re-emergence of the “great game” of power/control and resource exploitation

  10. Predicting “state changes” • If “state change” is irreversible then predicting it is very important • Example: Oil and Gas Development in the North Yukon Region

  11. North Yukon Planning Region Establishing Targets/Thresholds Example: Linear (Access) Density (km/km2) Ecological risk increases as you increase linear density – where do we want to be along the “development curve”? Woodland Caribou population declines observed EAGLE PLAINS TODAY EAGLE PLAINS FUTURE?? R2 = 0.8918 13 Source: Salmon 2006

  12. Concluding Thoughts/Questions • Is governance “state change” irreversible”? • Could not the Russians and the American’s enter into another “Cold War”

  13. Concluding Thoughts/Questions • It is worth asking “what is not changing?” • Do a series of “state changes” lead to a “system transformation”? • The Arctic is going through many “state changes” … is this leading to a “system transformation?” “When will the Arctic not be the Arctic?”

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