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The US Economy Rebounds

The US Economy Rebounds. October 2009. How strong will the recovery be?. Payroll employment has contracted by over seven million. 5 million jobs have gone in industry. And unemployment will continue to soar towards and above 10%. Bond yields remain low.

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The US Economy Rebounds

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  1. The US Economy Rebounds October 2009

  2. How strong will the recovery be?

  3. Payroll employment has contracted by over seven million

  4. 5 million jobs have gone in industry

  5. And unemployment will continue to soar towards and above 10%

  6. Bond yields remain low

  7. Cash for clunkers caused spike in sales – but will it last?

  8. Vehicle output is back at 2008 levels

  9. Signs of stabilisation of sentiment and property prices

  10. No sustained recovery likely without some asset price recovery

  11. Younger consumers are routinely more optimistic!

  12. And business CEOs starting to see signs of a upturn

  13. Relaxation of monetary policy seems to have prevented a confidence rout

  14. And tech stocks are improving

  15. Partly because mortgages are cheaper to service

  16. But new home sales remain very weak

  17. The dollar continues to sag v the Euro

  18. But are the Chinese preventing a further Yuan-$ adjustment?

  19. A cheaper $ and recession has brought an improved trade balance

  20. Including small surplus with Japan

  21. Better trade balance but the fiscal deficit looks horrific

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