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Europe and CIS MDGs in Europe and CIS: follow up from the UN September summit and next stepsVladimir MikhalevUNDP Bratislava Regional CentreCER, Tashkent, 29 June 2011 1
Europe and CIS Millennium Development Goals • MDG 1: Eradicate Poverty & Hunger • MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education • MDG 3: Promote Gender Equality • MDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality • MDG 5: Improve Maternal Health • MDG 6: Combat HIV AIDS, Malaria and Other Diseases • MDG 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability • MDG 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Europe and CIS Global MDG Summit • The Global 2010 MDG Summit agreed a global action plan to meet the MDGs • Impressive progress has been made, but it is uneven, fragile and too slow • Over 1 billion people still suffer form extreme poverty and hunger • 72 million children are out of school • Global constraints to MDG achievement: • Global economic crisis, food and fuel crises • Natural disasters and conflicts • Incomplete WTO Doha round • In sub-Saharan Africa no country is on course to achieve all MDGs • In ECIS a regional MDG report was published jointly by UN agencies, discussed at the regional MDG conference in Istanbul on 9-10 June 2010 • There is a clear agreement that achievement of the MDGs is possible with right commitment
Europe and CIS Commitments • WB to increase its 0% interest loan window on education by $ 750 million and will increase the infrastructure windows • ADB’s financing for clean energy water and sanitation will increase to more than $2 billion per year • USA pledged to become a leader in development and increase its assistance toward combating HIV/AIDS • United Kingdom will honor the target of 0.7% of GNI as ODA • Spain committed 0.7% of GNI as ODA by 2015, despite the economic crisis. • France increases by 20% it’s contribution to the GF for HIV/AIDS, with a priority to Africa
Europe and CIS Commitments (2) • Denmark is one of five countries that exceeded the commitment of 0.7% of GNI to ODA • Bulgaria committed to keep its ODA levels • Estonia welcomed the creation of UN Women and informed about its first contribution to that body • Australia will double its ODA by 2015 • Emerging donors: China, India, Korea, and Brazil will focus on Sub-Saharan Africa; China will increase its development assistance to LDCs
MDG context in Europe and Central Asia Low-income sub-group • Some countries have GDP per capita and poverty rates comparable to many African countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) • National MDG agenda widely owned by Govt & civil society • Country Development Strategies incorporate MDGs Middle-income sub-group • In some countries many global targets were achieved several years ago • Good progress in poverty reduction, education, health care • Policy traction in these countries for MDGs is quite low • …but, even in these countries there is a room for national MDG agenda • Targets need to be • Adapted to the current level of development • Disaggregated by gender, ethnicity, sub-national regions, labour market status to address pockets of acute poverty 6
MDG 1 – progress through 2008… • Poverty has been reduced significantly but remains high Source: The MDGs in Europe and Central Asia, UN 2010 • Poverty fell because of • Rapid economic growth driven by exports of primary commodities (gold in KG, aluminum & cotton in TJ, agro-exports in Moldova); • High & soaring remittances: 40% of GDP in TJ, 35 % in Moldova, 28% in KG 7
Constraints to poverty reduction • Inequality in income, wealth, social and labour market outcomes • Jobless growth, precarious employment, youth & long-term unemployment, working poor • Regional disparity with poverty concentrated in rural areas and mono-employer towns • Malnutrition, hunger in Central Asia • 32 % of the rural population in Tajikistan (2009) and 28% in Kyrgyzstan (2007) experienced inadequate food consumption • Food insecurity due to increased food prices and dependency on food imports • Steadily declining ODA for agriculture • Inadequate social protection that is not well targeted on the poor
Looking ahead: likely reversal on MDG 1 • Economic growth fell • Remittances have fallen by over 30 % in 2009 (but appeared to recover in 2010) • Loss of local jobs, returning migrants Unemployment rising • Poverty increased & won’t improve until growth and remittance flows resume (hinges largely on Russian demand & labor market) • In Moldova poverty rate increased from 24 % in 2008 to 31.2% in 2009 • The crisis-induced shrinking of the fiscal space • Arises owing to both falling revenues and rising needs for expenditure, notably on social protection • Restricts the room for manoeuvre for accelerating progress toward reaching MDGs 9
Aggregate poverty projections for ECIS Percentage share in population of poor with incomes under $2.5 at 2005 prices Source: Balázs Horváth, Andrey Ivanov and Mihail Peleah: The Human Development Impact of the Global Crisis in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe and the CIS, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center. 2010
Europe and CIS Primary education MDG 2 on universal primary enrolment has been largely considered achieved but the performance is uneven Source: Transmonee database
Europe and CIS Key MDG Summit messages for Europe and Central Asia • Efforts are needed to strengthen monitoring and implementation of MDGs within NDSs and PRSs based on improved data systems • Economic policy measures are needed for promoting inclusive and equitable growth creating employment, supporting rural development and reducing poverty • More, and more productive jobs are needed to generate adequate earnings and reduce the number of working poor; labour market policies should enforce equal opportunities and eradicate discrimination • Effective measures are necessary to strengthen women’s economic and property rights, their opportunities in the labour market and political participation
Europe and CIS Key messages (2) • Human capital needs major thrust in the region to overcome poor education outcomes and skills constraints • Non–income MDGs, especially in health care will be difficult to meet; public investment needs to be strengthened to improve social infrastructure and services • HIV/AIDS and TB are major concerns; key issues are prophylaxis, access to care and overcoming stigma and discrimination
Europe and CIS Key messages (3) • Policies are required to address energy issues, including energy efficiency and sustainability of energy sources • Energy pricing must reflect environmental externalities from fossil fuel use; additional government revenues would be used in part to address energy affordability to the poor • Sustainable methods of land, water, and forestry resource usage are crucial. Investment in protection of soil against erosion, in water supply and sanitation, electrical energy generation and transmission are essential • Climate change mitigation and adaptations measures need to be thoroughly designed and budgeted for in national development strategies and sector programmes • Poverty-Environment linkages should be mainstreamed in planning and budgeting
Europe and CIS ECA country responses: Ukraine • The effects of the crisis • GDP down by 15% in 2009 • social protection was poorly targeted • ranks of the rural and working poor swelled, with highest vulnerability in rural areas, among large families and pensioners over 70 • Response • pensions and minimum wages increased by 20% in real terms in 2009 • development of a new PRS • compensations to the poor for increase in energy prices (necessary to ensure financial viability of utilities) • vocational and adult education as means of tackling high unemployment
Europe and CIS Moldova Moldova offers a clear example of the critical role of political will in achieving MDGs despite the effects of the crisis • On track to reach 21 out of 27 MDG targets • effective, well-targeted social protection critical for this success • but primary and secondary enrolment decreased: in 2008 the gross enrolment ratio into primary education was 93.6% against 94% in 2007 and 99.4% in 2000 • Anti-crisis package attracted donor pledges of USD 2.6 billion
Europe and CIS Serbia • Serbia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy has remained on track despite three changes in government owing to • having a well-designed, realistic document • strongly participatory process involving NGOs and civil society that generated strong buy-in, including from local governments • an effective central-level coordination unit led by the deputy Prime Minister • Serbia is coming out of crisis, but spending constraints remain, necessitating further reforms to do “more with less” • Critical issues • identifying and supporting the “new poor” • effectively addressing social exclusion (using the EU social inclusion concept)
The UN response UNDP MDG Breakthrough Strategy • “Business unusual” course to 2015 prioritizing achievement of MDGs • Aligning UN Country Teams services with national MDG priorities • Targeting off-track MDGs by the MDG Acceleration Framework (MAF) Three pillars of the MDG Breakthrough Strategy • Accelerating progress by scaling up proven and innovative initiatives • gender, energy, water & sanitation, education, health, sustainable agriculture • Creating enabling environment to sustain progress • effective policies, good governance, peace and security • Strengthening advocacy, partnerships and resources • national budgets, ODA, private sector, civil society
MDG Acceleration Framework MAF is the core of MDG Breakthrough Strategy • bottleneck identification and prioritization • acceleration solution selection • implementation planning and monitoring Areas of intervention with multiplier effects • Investing in women and girls • Access to clean and affordable energy • Access to safe water and basic sanitation Investing in innovation • Legal empowerment of the poor • Microfinance for the MDGs • Conditional Cash Transfers for the MDGs MAF is piloted in 10 countries • In ECIS, Tajikistan is a pilot country – the area of intervention is energy access for the poor 19