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Baltic Energy Summit: Advancing Regional Sustainability Goals

This summit aims to develop a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through stakeholder involvement and analysis of energy data to create scenarios. It focuses on reducing CO2 emissions, targets for 2030, and improving energy efficiency. The summit discusses various scenarios, renewable resources, and electricity market outlooks. Recommendations include shared visions, regional cooperation, and concrete projects. This initiative provides valuable input for the EU Baltic Sea Strategy and emphasizes the importance of concrete plans and actions for a sustainable energy future. Plans for the future include developing a "strategy scenario," expanding cooperation until 2050, and exploring truly sustainable scenarios without fossil fuels.

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Baltic Energy Summit: Advancing Regional Sustainability Goals

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  1. BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

  2. Objectives • To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders • To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data Process Feb 2009 Oct2009 May 2008

  3. Developing scenarios Storage CO2 CO2-emissions Other energy 250 Electricity and district heat Tranport 200 150 100 50 0 DG TREN DG TREN Ref_North North DG TREN 1990 2005 Scenario 2030 Fuel prices Stakeholderdialogue Energy demand Efficiency measures ScenarioAnalyses Infrastructure Results Technology data Renewable resources

  4. Targets for 2030 CO2: -50 % (1990) Oil: -50 % (2005) Phase I

  5. Phase II Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030 • Targets • 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE • 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990 • Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power • Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030 • Baseline scenario and three variations • Regional targets for renewable energy • Lower electricity demand • More CO2 reduction in 2020

  6. A balanced view on nuclear power

  7. Future generation capacity

  8. Generation outlook

  9. Utilisation of biomass resources

  10. CO2emissions • Marginal CO2 price - 7 €/ton in 2020 - 60 €/ton in 2030 • Marginal cost of increasing RE generation • 0 – 30 €/MWh in 2020 • 0 - 11 €/MWh in 2030

  11. Scenario variations • Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy • Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh • 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020 • Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton • Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %) • Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV (excl. cost of saving measures) • Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020

  12. Key findings • The targetscanbemet at reasonablecosts • Potential for more efficient generation and consumption • Benefits of regional cooperation • Interconnectors • Electricitymarkets • RE policies and projects • Strongertargetsarepossible

  13. Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue • shared vision “A Green Valley of Europe” • energy stakeholder forum • regional projects • common interconnector strategy • action plan for efficient and sustainable heating • common regional training programme

  14. Phase III • Modelllingtool and data for the whole region is nowavailable • How to utilisethis potential in the thirdprojectphase? • Suggestions for further analyses • Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from each country in the region • Identify and evaluateconcreteprojects in cooperationwithstakeholders • Expand the scope to 2050

  15. Phase III • Input for • EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP) • Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts

  16. Input from BDF Summit • The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply • We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects” • Grids and wind power • Combined heat and power and energy efficiency • Training and education • Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region • Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave • Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)

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