Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions (Work in progress)

1. Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions(Work in progress) Allison Perry

2. Vulnerability: • susceptibility to harm • a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, or environmental factors, which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard (UNDP 2004)

3. Approaches to vulnerability • Risk and hazards • Coastal populations and flooding • Human ecology • Hunger, famines • Sustainability • Land use practices • Climate change • Impacts on natural resource sectors

4. Vulnerability assessment framework EXPOSURE Disturbance or stress to system SENSITIVITY Degree of response of system to disturbance or stress POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Ability of system to evolve or change to accommodate disturbance or stress VULNERABILITY

5. Vulnerability assessment framework EXPOSURE Disturbance or stress to system SENSITIVITY Degree of response of system to disturbance or stress RESILIENCE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Ability of system to evolve or change to accommodate disturbance or stress VULNERABILITY

6. Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

7. Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries are exposed to predicted climate change SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by fishery-related changes POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

8. Very low Low Moderate High No data Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries Vulnerability Allison et al. (2009) Allison et al. (2009)

9. Taking vulnerability assessment forward • Fisheries and climate change: • Refinements as input data quality improves • Multiple drivers of change • Finer-scale assessments – for policy • National • Sub-national • Vulnerability of specific fishery-dependent systems

10. Threatened coral reefs

11. Reef loss: threats to people • Reef ecosystem goods and services • Food, income, employment, coastal protection, tourism, exports • Poverty and reef-dependent regions • 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries • 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries • Small island states • High population densities, limited freshwater supplies, sensitive economies

12. Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle • >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food, livelihoods • Reefs valued at US$ 2.3 billion • Many reefs degraded and under continuing threat • Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI): conservation, sustainable development, poverty reduction

13. Philippines Indonesia Solomon Islands Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle • Vulnerability to reef loss (climate change) • National-scale assessments • (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste) • Finer-scale assessments • (Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands)

14. Assessing vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Degree to which people & economies are likely to be affected by changes on reefs POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Potential for reef-dependent communities & nations to cope with changes on reefs VULNERABILITY

15. Assessing vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Reef dependence POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with reef loss VULNERABILITY

16. Assessing social vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Reef dependence ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with reef loss SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

17. Reef dependence People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater: • Share of economic activity • Contribution to individual/household income • Contribution to community/regional/national economy • Source of employment • Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods • Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities • Source of nutrients • Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources • Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

18. Complexities of reef dependence • Variation in types of reef reliance • Continuous vs. seasonal • Safety net during times of hardship • Critical to survival vs. non-essential • Other reef services • Coastal protection • Cultural value

19. Adaptive capacity Generic (Human development) indicators • Economy (poverty, inequality, debts) • Health (life expectancy, child mortality) • Education (literacy, school enrolment) • Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption) Context-specific indicators • Governance (MPAs, LMMAs) • Alternative natural resources (other fisheries, agriculture, freshwater availability) • Remittances • Infrastructure (e.g. roads) • Isolation (e.g. proximity to urban centres, markets)

20. Project status Data hunting and compilation • National-scale • Reef-associated coastal populations, fisheries, dietary consumption • HDIs, MPAs, roads, agricultural land availability, water resources, remittances • Finer-scale • Reef dependence: • Indonesia (~ 25 sites) • Philippines (~ 30 sites) • Solomon Islands (~ 5 sites)

21. Methodological challenges: Data limitations • Varying measures of reef-dependence • Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear • Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings • Production: catch, revenues • Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries) • Spatial scale:

22. Methodological challenges: Data limitations • Varying measures of reef-dependence • Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear • Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings • Production: catch, revenues • Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries) • Spatial scale • Data availability at specific scales • Linking national and finer-scale assessments • Reef-relevance • Balancing generic and context-specific indicators • e.g. Philippines fish consumption data

23. Reefs at Risk Revisited – Global assessment of vulnerability to reef degradation and loss Begins June 2009 Beyond the Coral Triangle…

25. Social vulnerability assessment Goals: • Awareness raising: reef dependence and associated vulnerability • Help to reduce vulnerability by: • Identifying the specific drivers of vulnerability in reef-dependent regions • Highlighting where particular policy, development, and management measures may be most appropriate • Establish baseline measures of vulnerability against which to monitor future changes