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COPERT 4 v.10.0 revisions

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  1. COPERT 4 v.10.0 revisions

  2. Outline • Gasoline and diesel PCs: new subsector classification • Gasoline and diesel PCs:CO2 correction option • Diesel PCs Euro 5/6: Emissions update • PCs: E85 subsector (new) • Mopeds: Emissions update • Gasoline PCs: Methane update • PCs: CNG subsector (new)

  3. New PC subsectors (gasoline and diesel) • The Gasoline<0.8 l subsector has been added for gasoline passenger cars of Euro 4-6 technologies • Gasoline<1.4 l subsector becomes Gasoline 0.8-1.4 l • The Diesel<1.4 l subsector has been added for diesel passenger cars of Euro 4-6 technologies • Diesel <2.0l subsector becomes Diesel 1.4-2.0 l

  4. Modelling Approach for new subsectors • GOAL: to provide FC factors using simulated vehicles models (no difference in emission factors) • Use of specific vehicle features (where available) to design powertrain system level simulations (AVL CRUISE) • Collection/estimation of vehicle technical specifications: • physical characteristics (weight, wheel base, drag coefficient, tyre dimensions, etc.) • vehicle architecture and control systems

  5. Modelling Approach • Model building • embedding of performance (energy, emission, output, …) maps for main components (engine, motor, battery, transmission) based on available data or expected improvements • Calibration of vehicle model performance via cycle testing • Type approval cycle runs (NEDC, EUDC, UDC) and acceleration data based on available data for validation purposes only. • ARTEMIS cycles for real-world fuel consumption estimation

  6. Modelling plan

  7. Gasoline <0.8l modelling • Starting with the CO2 monitoring database, three representative passenger cars with an engine capacity of less than 800cc were chosen (based on their popularity and engine capacity distribution) • This subsector contained a very limited choice of passenger cars. • Simulation was weighted based on vehicle registrations.

  8. Gasoline <0.8l models • The Fiat 500 vehicle typically exceeds the 0.8l range. However, due to the limited of vehicles in the CO2 database and the low-consumption performance of this vehicle, it was still included in the simulation.

  9. Gasoline <0.8l results

  10. Gasoline <0.8l results • The fitting equation type was based on the Gasoline <1.4l, since this subsector is a subset. • Goodness of fit: • Adjusted R-square: 0.884 • RMSE: 3.558

  11. Diesel <1.4l modelling • Using the CO2 monitoring database six representative passenger cars with an engine capacity of less than 1400cc were chosen (based on their popularity and engine capacity distribution) • Simulation was weighted based on vehicle registrations.

  12. Diesel <1.4l models

  13. Diesel <1.4 l results

  14. Diesel <1.4 l results • The fitting equation type was based on the Diesel<2l since this subsector is a subset. • Goodness of fit: • Adjusted R-square: 0.6971 • RMSE: 2.456

  15. Diesel <1.4 l validation • Average vehicle results as well as the FC emission factor were compared to the A300DB content on Diesel<1,4 l Euro 4 & 5 cars. • The difference is similar to differences between this database and higher capacity diesel vehicles in COPERT.

  16. CO2 Correction: Real-world vs. Type Approval • Type-approval emissions are not considered representative of real-world driving conditions • According to the JRC Report: • “Parameterisation of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for modelling purposes,” • a set of models based on type-approval FC, and vehicle mass can predict real-world fuel consumption

  17. CO2 Correction: Modelling logic • A simple model should be introduced into COPERT methodology • The chosen set of models • can be used for all passenger car capacities • is ideal to predict consumption of new car registrations because it uses mean vehicle mass, capacity, and type-approval CO2 to correct emissions, which are readily available from the CO2 monitoring database

  18. CO2 Correction: Modelling details • The model equations for the real-world fuel consumption of passenger cars are: • Where FCTA stands for type-approval fuel consumption, mstands for the vehicle reference mass (empty weight + 75 kg for driver and 20 kg for fuel), and CC stands for the engine capacity in cm3):

  19. CO2 Correction option • Average values for mass, engine capacity, and TA CO2 figures are required user input, per passenger car category • COPERT first calculates emissions normally, based on custom input circulation data • If the CO2 correction option is selected, a calibration process introduces a correction coefficient • This coefficient is then used to calculate the modified FC and CO2 emission factors

  20. Example: Gasoline<1.4, Euro 5 • COPERT calculated FC emission factors (U/R/H): 50.0/ 44.3/ 48.2 g/km • Speed profile: 40/ 60/ 100 km/h • Shares: U20%/ R40%/ H40% • The model fuel consumption for Euro 5 cars <1.4 l leads to 6.41 l/100km or 48.1 g/km. This reflects mean consumption over CADC. • average mass: 1200 kg • average capacity: 1150cc • average type-approval FC: 40 g/km (~5.26 l/100km)

  21. CO2 Correction example: Gasoline<1.4l • The average consumption of vehicles over CADC on which the COPERT 4 emission factors is based is 59.5 g/km • Hence a correction coefficient has to be introduced of 48.1/ 59.5 = 0.808 • Applying the coefficient will produce modified FCs of • 0.808 x 50.0 = 40.4 g/km for urban (was 50 g/km) • 0.808 x 44.3 = 35.8 g/km for rural (was 44.3 g/km) • 0.808 x 48.2 = 39.0 g/km for highway (was 48.2 g/km) • CO2 calculation proceeds as normal based on the modified FC

  22. COPERT sample mean FC (CADC)

  23. CO2 Correction – Gasoline (2010) • Correction (%) with respect to country stats: • The difference was calculated based on this equation *Value refers to total database (all EU) due to the low number of available vehicles, reported per country

  24. CO2 Correction – Diesel (2010)

  25. Implementation to COPERT • Euro 4 to Euro 6 • Annual correction factor (2005-2020) calculated on the basis of mean mass, capacity, CO2,TA, new registrations. Available in both: • 1753/2000/EC database • 443/2009 database • Weighted average correction factor per emission standard is calculated and used per emission standard

  26. Implementation to COPERT

  27. CO2 Correction Remarks - 1 • Large Gasoline FC increases by 10-20% due the high average capacity in the database (>3500cc). • All the other subsectors have a 10-20% decrease in FC. • The G<0.8l subsector was non-existent when the CO2 correction model was compiled • The G0.8-1.4l subsector FC average was extracted for capacity around 1390cc while the country averages are ~1250cc. • The G1.4-2l subsector FC average was extracted for capacity close to the CO2 monitoring database which can explain the smaller corrections • The FCSAMPLE was based on Euro 4 measurements so it is expected to be somewhat higher than Euro 5 cars

  28. CO2 Correction Remarks - 2 • Diesel vehicles have much lower correction factors • D<1.4l and D1.4-2l show opposite trends; the correction was compiled with the old COPERT classification (only D<2.0l). • High capacity (D>2.0l) vehicles have very small corrections; the capacity average in this case is much closer to 2.0l (less than 2500cc)

  29. Diesel Euro 5/6 update • Diesel Euro 5 vehicles exceed NOx emissions in real-world operation: • tuned engine and aftertreatment components only strive to achieve type approval limits • reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions are the priority • Euro 5 testing coordinated in the framework of the ERMES activity • Representative NOx emission factors are still under development • Intermediate solution had to be found!

  30. Available measurements (ERMES group)

  31. Diesel Euro 5/6 update • Available data show that Euro 5 is the highest light duty NOx emission technology ever • Considerably lower NOx emissions are shown for the small sample of Euro 6 cars tested, however • these models are of advanced emission control technology • it is not yet known if this technology will be used in the future • exact type-approval procedure has not been decided yet • Real-world PM levels appear consistent with the type approval reductions and current COPERT emission factors (very efficient diesel particle filters (DPFs) in all diesel cars post Euro 5)

  32. Average NOx emission levels (ERMES)

  33. Average PM emission levels (ERMES)

  34. Diesel Euro 5/6 update • Correction in COPERT will be applied to diesel NOx emission factors only • Detailed emission factors exist in COPERT for Euro 4. • Proposed reduction factors based on Euro 4: • Negative reduction factor implies an increase

  35. Diesel Euro 5/6 update • Proposed ‘reduction factor’ will lead to a substantial increase in NOx emissions compared to the previous COPERT version • The increase will be more important to countries where the stock of Euro 5 cars is relatively more important. • Detailed emission factors for Euro 5 and Euro 6 will be made available in Spring 2013 through ERMES and will be introduced in the next COPERT version. • No big differences expected compared to v10.0

  36. E85 medium passenger car • Bioethanol is the most widely used biofuel in the world • Compared to biodiesel, ethanol has a higher production potential due to a larger range of possible biomass sources • The most popular blend is E85 (85% ethanol and 15% gasoline by volume) • A comparison of E85 vs. E0/E5/E10 in Euro4 – Euro5 passenger cars was carried out, mostly based on a database held by AVL MTC. Study was performed within ERMES activity

  37. Tested Fuels • Neat gasoline, with no ethanol blend, referred to as E0 • E5, consisting of standard gasoline fuel containing 5% of ethanol. • A blend of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol, referred to as E85

  38. Tested vehicles (Euro 4)

  39. Tested vehicles and fuels (Euro 4)

  40. Test details (Euro 4) • The Common Artemis Driving Cycle (CADC) was used for the tests • Only the ‘hot’ phase of the urban part of the cycle was considered • The ambient temperature for all tests was around 22-25 oC.

  41. Tested vehicles and cycles (Euro 4)

  42. Emission measurements (Euro 4)

  43. CO Results (Euro 4): E85 vs. E5 and E0

  44. HC Results (Euro 4): E85 vs. E5 and E0

  45. NOx Results (Euro 4): E85 vs. E5 and E0

  46. CO2 Results (Euro 4): E85 vs. E5 and E0

  47. FC Results (Euro 4): E85 vs. E5 and E0

  48. CO conclusions (Euro 4) • Significant decreases in CO by using E85 over E5 or E0 fuel. in the order of 50% collectively for the E85/E5 and E85/E0 ratios. • 59% for the E85/E5 ratio and 27% for the E85/E0 ratio • Reduction is approximately 30% at urban conditions and 65% at highway conditions

  49. HC conclusions (Euro 4) • The overall mean when using E85 over E5 or E0 is 33% less than using gasoline alone • 42% reduction for the E85/E5 ratio, compared to 14% for the E85/E0 ratio • In urban speeds, use of E85 over E5 leads to an increase in emissions by 25% while emissions over highway conditions drop by 53%

  50. NOx conclusions (Euro 4) • Impacts on NOx overall are negligible, with an overall increase when using E85 of 4% • The increase is limited to 1% when comparing E85 vs. E5 and 4% when comparing E85 vs. E0