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Predicting Presidential Election Results

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Predicting Presidential Election Results. Dan Berry University High School Morgantown, West Virginia. AP Human Geography Concepts. Unit I Geography: Its Nature and Perspective F. Sources of geographical ideas and data: the field, census data Unit II Population

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Predicting Presidential

Election Results

Dan Berry

University High School

Morgantown, West Virginia


AP Human Geography Concepts

  • Unit I Geography: Its Nature and Perspective
  • F. Sources of geographical ideas and data: the field, census data
  • Unit II Population
  • Geographical analysis of population
  • 3. Patterns of composition: age, sex, race, and ethnicity
  • Unit VII Political Organization of Space
  • C. Changes in political-territorial arrangements
  • 4. Electoral geography, including gerrymandering


  • Students finished completing the data in three fifty-minute class periods.
  • The only data students had to work with was that data provided by the 2000 Census which came in the GIS software. The same data can be acquired by going to the US Census Bureau web site.
  • Weaknesses
  • Student Bias: Most of the liberal students may have leaned some of these counties towards Obama.
  • While Latinos were leaning towards Clinton, counties with a large young Latino cohort were given to Obama, when in reality those counties voted for Clinton.
  • Obama did not get as many suburban counties.
  • Strengths
  • Students loved this activity. It made them feel like Carl Rove and James Carville.

This activity may be time-consuming, therefore have students do much of the work outside of class.

  • If you have GIS software, then students can enter the data they have collected to create a map.
  • If you do not have GIS software, then be sure to secure an outline map of a state with county divisions (included in this lesson).
  • There can be many variations with this activity (you may even want to predict results at the precinct level).
  • If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me:
  • If you want to extend this activity, continue to the next slides.