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Analysis of Cost of Cycling Run Results Data

This report outlines input changes and generation results for production cost of cycling, path flows, and recommendation for change in non-fuel start cost and variable O&M cost. Includes comparison of annual generation, starts, and production cost, along with path flow plots and observations for further analysis.

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Analysis of Cost of Cycling Run Results Data

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  1. Stan HollandStaff Engineer Cost of Cycling Run Results Data Work Group January 3, 2012

  2. Outline • Input changes • Generation Results • Production Cost • Path Flows • Recommendation

  3. Change in NonFuel Start Cost

  4. Change in Variable O&M Cost

  5. Summary of Changes

  6. Units Not Updated • Start & VOM costs were not updated for the following generator categories: • Coal Cogen { 4 units } • CT Future { 94 units } • CT Old Oil { 13 units } • IC { 79 units } • Other Steam { 10 units } • PC Steam { 7 units } • DWG could either assign these to one of the seven APTECH groups or recommend cost updates

  7. Results • Comparison of Annual Generation by Type and area • Comparison of Number of Starts – annual by type • Comparison of Production Cost – annual by type • Other Generation comparisons • Path Flow plots for COI+PDCI and WOR

  8. Generation Change by Area Even with the shift from coal-fired to combined cycle generation, the total production cost decreased by $397 million. Cholla, Four Corners, San Juan, and Springerville had some of the higher capacity factor variances (-3% to -4%).

  9. Generation Change - WECC

  10. Result Comparison – Number of Starts The large increase in the number of CT starts is likely related to the decreased start costs, especially for the small CT’s.

  11. Result Comparison – Average Production Cost (Annual Production Cost / Annual Energy >> $/MWh) Variable Production Cost Components • Start Costs (Fuel and Non-Fuel) • Variable O&M cost • Operating Fuel Cost • Optional – emissions adder

  12. Path Flow – COI + PDCI

  13. Path Flows – West of CO River

  14. Other Generation Parameters Current settings for Minimum Downtime allow warm starts for Coal – Supercritical, Combined Cycle, and Gas – Steam.

  15. Observations • A few thermal units in Alberta need to be tweaked (i.e. cogens need more restrictions) • Need further analysis of coal generation – not seeing reduction in ramping. Do we need to increase the minimum generation capacity?

  16. DWG Recommendations • Changes to 2022 Common Case • APTECH Start Costs (yes or no) • APTECH Variable O&M costs (yes or no) • Other Recommendations • 1. • 2. • 3. • 4.

  17. Questions?

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