“ Point & Counter-point with Bob Lucky” Gordon Bell Microsoft May 5, 1998. The 1998 Bellcore Forum:* Competing in the Millennium: Vision, Innovation, and Delivery
The 1998 Bellcore Forum:*Competing in the Millennium:
Vision, Innovation, and Delivery
*Audience response was used for this presentation, and the attendees from Bellcore, LECs, CLECs, IECs/IXCs, Cable companies, and equipment suppliers were polled. The %s indicate the results of these polls.
*Appended to the original talk.
By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
Bet: Me? 77% NN? 23%
TVs & Phones
“1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year
Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)
lawsuitsGrowth in hype
Data from Gordon’s WAG
actual commerce “net”.
articles about risk and NOT doing commerce
pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articlesArticles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)
Data from Gordon’s WAG
Capac. (svc & response)
If we couldn’t predict the Web, what good are we?
… you can’t see ‘em coming!
Business Week even makes fun of Telecom… because you can see them coming
Phone CATV Satellite…
0. Where would they be without the transistor, RJ11 and UNIX that you de-standardized?
1. They’re nouveau rich we’re old money.
2. We brought ISDN to the party, nobody came.
3. They’re IP’ing on us including phones!
4. Packets don’t make links fatter or faster.
5. All they want is free, high bandwidth, 24 hour a day phone calls. Why do they need bandwidth? They have nothing to show.
6. Don’t talk service. I reboot my PC every day. Ever have to reboot your phone?
7. Just wait till the governments get on their case.
“The Computer” option
tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S
direct > batch
Mini & Timesharing
SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S
terminals via commands
micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S
PC, scalable servers,
Network Interface Platform
All the platforms we have and will inevitably build have to be totally interconnected to have Cyberspace.That’s your job!The price has to be right… you cannot count on voice revenue forever!
Not shown: ECG; GPS; an opportunity
Libretto, .5mm pencil
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife
Data an opportunity
TelevisionCyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
Game an opportunity
Programs, Content & messages an opportunityCyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943
Tera differences in Cyberspace perception
Telephone Service17% / year
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
“the residual effects of regulation ensure that telecom carriers will never provide what the customer wants and … it comes five years too late.”--venture capitalist Roger McNamee.
“Computer folks ... fear that Moron's Law will trump Moore's and stunt the revolution's growth over the next 30 years.”
Wires to the home …
Guys and trucks
Poles and holes…
Core competency: lobbying
0. Ads say “someday you will”. Just do it!
1. All they give us is POTS to IP on.
2. It’s not the price of bandwidth (that they said would be free) … it’s the availability
3. They won’t buy packet switching. Computers let everyone be telecoms. They’ll pay.
4. The net is the net. Services are services. Content is content. Stop trying to own ALL.
5. Telephone quality is an oxymoron. With 64 kbps, we should be getting CD quality.
5. Name any monopoly that has love & respect
6. It’s taken 35 years to learn that computer calls last 24 hours/day, not 5 minutes.
0. But you just increased my rates
1. They don’t even own the poles or holes. They’re just schmucks in trucks.
2. They are too close to the broadcast industry and that eliminated logic.
3. We’d all like to be unregulated too then we can raise rates faster and do whatever we want.
The Network and all the Sevices you would ever want.
All the Services you might or might not want
Worldwide mostly IP Switch
Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others
Microsoft, Delrina, many others
Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX
Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others
Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others
Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others
Intel, AMD, Motorola, others
Proc. & mem 2x/1.5 yr Access B/W 2x/4yr entrepreneurs will create the services Trunk BW 2x/ 9 mos.
Prices decline Prices increase
Email, web, audio, etc. Voice, voicemail, fax
Packet switching… Circuit switching...
… will too, do voice! …is required for voice
64Kbps gives great audio Telephone Quality Voice … is an oxymoron
IP ATM, ISDN & POTS
Fungible bits for Unique bits and phone fax data tv… ala carte pricing
Connect & bits go free. Billing & lawyer costs
Just give us any old net! We want it all: we’ll compute the rest net, nodes, content
Technology-based …its Lobbying-based … its
Information Services Telecommunications
Moore’s Law Moron’s LawComputer vs Telecom
“You have to separate the hype from the reality. We have customers, real customers paying hundreds of millions of dollars to us today. When you look at Level 3 and Qwest, how many customers do they have?” ---- R C Notebaert, Ameritech
“We’re not going to wake up and find our voice business is gone”--- M Turner, US West
Ken OlsenPresident, Chairman and founder of Digital, 1977
Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines ATT, 1981
“ Unfortunately we’re stuck with ISDN speed using POTS for the next 5 years.”
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997
“ conservative prediction.AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by 1996.
Robb Wilmot, advising Robert Allen in 1992 ($100)
But to really foul up requires an econometric and market models!
“ conservative prediction.By 1997 Video-on-Demand will be available and operating in six cities
Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska1992 (winners get fed)
When will this happen?2000 8%, 2005 46%, 2010 25%, never 21%
“ conservative prediction.
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in 10% daily use.
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)
Will this happen by: 2001 25%, 2005 50%, 2010 18%, 2015 3%, never 4%
NCs include those embedded in TV sets, phones, and used as PC alternatives.
Bet with Larry Ellison, CEO Oracle: While the devices connected to the web (e.g. instruments, cameras, appliances, printers, phones, and television sets) may be greater than PCs, the number of personal access devices that are NOT PCs will be less than 9:1.
Don’t bother betting where the goal is just PR. It is safe to bet against Larry Ellison even if he has lots of money.Elllison bought Ncube. It failed as an MPP computer, failed again as a database engine, and finally failed as a video-on-demand server.
Item Bell/Lucky 1994 2000
Fax 11 10 7 10
Voice 15 50 15 30
Voice/Video confer 2 2 10 10
Overnite mail 2 3 1.5 5
Snail mail 20 25 10 25
Email 50 10 56 30
Bet: (Walt Mossberg, WSJ) There will be continued growth of PCs (I.e. things that run Windows, NT, or CE) at a double digit rate for until 2001.
Bet with me? 87% With Mossberg? 13%
Negroponte predicts 1Bp and $1T/yr of commerce by 1/2001.
Bet: with Dave Nagel, AT&T one dinner The web will reach 400M world-wide users OR 50% of U.S. households by end of 2001.
Do you bet with me? 57% Nagel? 43%
Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.
Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%
High bandwidth links are being delivered today in trials of 10K+ using cable & xDSL.
Bet: The average bandwidth to all U. S. homes with PCs will be <56 Kbps in 1/2001.
The availability of bandwidth coming to consumers and small businesses by 1/2001 via Cu twisted pair aka LECs or IECs will be comparable to ISDN today.
<56Kbps 71% >128Kbps 29%
Bet: Raj Reddy et al … fine food & drink10K users at 10 sites of > 500 users/site in 3 states will NOT inter-connect through a gigabit path by the end of 2000.
Do you bet with me? 65% Or with Raj? 35%
Based on market need, this service will be available by: 2000 10%, 2005 53%, 2010 29%, 2020 5%, never 4%.
ACM97 aka its 50th on March 3-5, 1997 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast and servers
Bet with Denise Curruso, NY TimesMore people will view conferences that are made telepresent from Cyberspace than those attended it in meatspace by 2001. Note this bet was won within 6 months.
Bet: Even this meeting will be telepresented by 2001 37%, 2005 35%, 2010 10%, never 18%
By 2047 will the majority telecommute? (68% of ACM attendees said yes)
Will representative democracy be replaced by electronic participatory, democracy by 2047? (ACM: 38% yes)
TV, the internet and telephone will converge by 2002 (ACM) !… clearly optimistic and very wrong
IP will carry $2B of existing voice or fax traffic by: 2001, 2005, 2010
IP will carry 20% of existing voice or fax traffic by: 2001, 2005, 2010
IP will carry 50% of voice and fax traffic by: 2005, 2010, 2020, never
*Note email can be used to carry fax traffic, but not visa-versa.
xDSL use will cross-over ISDN installations by 2001 55%, 2005 37%, 2010 8%
xDSL will deliver service to 10M by 2001 10%, 2005 69%, 2010 22%
Cable will provide WWW to 1Ml by 2001 61%, 2005 31%, 2010 8%
Cable will deliver WWW to 10M by 2001, 2005, 2010
The datacom network (IP) will carry Television programs by 1/2001, 2005, 2010, 2020, never
There will be a single net to access the majority of telephony, data, and television sources by 2005, 2010, 2020, never
One-half the homes with PCs will be “always on” by: 2001, 2005, 2010, 2020
The main (in units) web access device in 2001 will be: the PC, Telecomputer aka videophone, Set-top, TV, other
The main web access device in 2005 will be the PC, Telecomputer, Set-top, TV, other
The main web access device in 2010 will be the PC, Telecomputer, Set-top, TV, other
Ten Niches to the IECs economic support base. BusinessesReducing voice revenue is the only avenue for changing the LEC-PUC-FCC controlled access infrastructure!
Voice over IP at 7.3 Kbps
*courtesy of Bellcore
LECs are free pipe and wire access providers.
IP over ATM lets competitors buildout a network
If you use IP to transmit and store information, including telephony (unless it looks like a plain old telephone call), its Information Services.
If you use circuit switching (no storage) its Telecommunications (and FCC/PUC controlled)
IP Telephony has to look different!
Bet:This will hold until 1/2001.