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Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change. Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/. Topics. JAWS JAWES T STEW WEST WEB E-Commerce Scalability Telepresence. Web…a small Cyberspace island.

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information technologies that will drive enterprise change

Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change

Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress

14 June 1998

Gordon Bell

Microsoft Corp.

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

topics
Topics...
  • JAWS
  • JAWES
  • T
  • STEW
  • WEST
    • WEB
    • E-Commerce
    • Scalability
    • Telepresence
everything cyberizable will be in cyberspace
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Body

Continent

Car

Region/

Intranet

Home

Campus,

including SANs

World

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

everything will be in cyberspace
“Everything will be in Cyberspace”
  • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or
  • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them
    • Infrastructure supports the content
    • Three evolutionary dimensions
cyberization interface to all bits and process information
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
  • Coupling to all information and information processors
  • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
  • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
  • State of: places, things, and people
  • State of: physical networks
atoms vs electrons for bits
Atoms vs Electrons for bits

Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless)

people know computers know

bricks & mortar anywhere (personnel/clients)

office hours anytime

database & reports web access for review and transactions

letter & fax email & web access

phone email, voice & video mail

personal visits videophone / videomail

signature authenticated images

envelopes digital envelopes / store

slide8

By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

why this is the keystone bet
Why this is the keystone bet!
  • It determines the market
    • for networks
    • for access devices… especially PCs
  • It says something about the utility
    • commerce
    • communication
    • entertainment
  • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables
    • phones
    • videophones
    • television
    • serendipity
internetters growth
Internetters growth

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year

Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

internetters growth11
Internetters growth

World Population

10000

1000

100

10

TVs & Phones

“1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte

PCs

Internetters

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

growth in hype

WWW

books,

newspapers

Infoway regulation

Infoway promise:

“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)

Infoway addiction

conferences

lawsuits

Growth in hype

Data from Gordon’s WAG

articles about security privacy fraud versus commerce m

actual commerce

articles about risk and NOT doing commerce

pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles

Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)

Data from Gordon’s WAG

visibility is required for every part of the system
Visibility is Required for Every Part of the System!

New & in-house custom applications

SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP

Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix

Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File & Print

SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail

HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast

managing the entire it enterprise servers apps nets and clients
Managing the entire IT Enterprise: servers, apps, nets and clients …
  • Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for business processes and extended market reach … and especially E-commerce
  • Growing complexity of apps and
  • Growing “user” diversity including customers
  • No visibility into the user’s experience
  • The approach has to be to understand the system from the user’s perspective!
client based passive flow analysis end to end path visibility
Client Based Passive Flow Analysis: End-to-end Path Visibility

Applications

Availability

Transaction Time

Transaction Health

Server

Client

Network

Routers & Switches

Availability

Congestion, Hop Count, Delay

RTT (Round Trip Time)

Route flutter, Packet loss

Available Throughput

Availability

Load

Delay

Refused connections

Availability

PC Health

Configuration

Delay

User Behavior

Modem

Phone Line

one million people will access the web via tv sets
One million people will access the web via TV sets...

Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.

Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%

underlying technologies
Underlying Technologies
  • Merchant Servers
    • Microsoft
    • Open Market
    • SUN
    • iCat
  • Cyber Agencies
    • CKS
    • Organic
    • DoubleClick
underlying technologies28
Underlying Technologies
  • Incentive Systems (money surrogate)
    • Digital IQ - Coupons
    • Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles
    • Impulse Buy Network - Buyer’s Network
    • Narrative - Direct Response
    • Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne
    • e-Bay - Auctions
  • Cyber “Consumer Reports”
    • Junglee
    • Jango
    • NECX
channels
Channels
  • More Cybermediaries - Bring Buyers and Sellers Together
    • Yahoo
    • FastParts, Inc.
    • Instill Corp
  • Consumer Magnets - Buyers With Useful Information link to Manufacturers & Service Providers
    • Auto-by-Tel
    • Get-Smart.com
    • Junglee
    • NECX
predictions that will change your job
Predictions that will change your job
  • As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum - They could Control Buying Process
  • Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by Startups That Will Own the Internet channel
    • Example: Amazon.Com
slide31

Atoms represent “money”, ownership, … riskIT responsible for the infrastructure for a wide range of activities: advertising, selling, delivery, billing, support, etc. For many, the WEB is the Interface

new or old money it s just bits
New or old money… it’s just bits

Credit

ATM /

Prepaid

Check

Cash

Prepaid

atoms vs electrons for financial bits
Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits

Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless)

money database, smart card, credit card, debit card

statements web access

bills / checks bill present. / check free

coupons cyber-coupons

stock database, web

statements, reports web access, email

+company infor, analyst reports, etc.

private placements web access, email

trade confirmation direct trades

mail voting on line voting

billions of clients
Billions Of Clients
  • Every device will be “intelligent”
  • Doors, rooms, cars…
  • Computing will be ubiquitous
slide40

Not shown: ECG; GPS;

Compass; altimeter

PCS; Pilot

Libretto, .5mm pencil

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

billions of clients need millions of servers
Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers
  • All clients networked to servers
    • May be nomadicor on-demand
  • Fast clients wantfaster servers
  • Servers provide
    • Shared Data
    • Control
    • Coordination
    • Communication

Clients

Mobileclients

Fixedclients

Servers

Server

Super

server

cluster shared what
Cluster: Shared What?
  • Shared Memory Multiprocessor
    • Multiple processors, one memory
    • all devices are local
    • DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
  • Shared Disk Cluster
    • an array of nodes
    • all shared common disks
    • VAXcluster + Oracle
  • Shared Nothing Cluster
    • each device local to a node
    • ownership may change
    • Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
snap scalable networks and platforms
SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
  • Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
  • The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the network ubiquitous … and great!
  • Common operating system for platform, reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps
  • Cluster technology
  • Apps are TRANPARENT!!!
snap systems circa 2000
SNAP Systems circa ­ 2000

Local &

global data

comm

world

Mobile

Nets

Legacy

mainframe &

minicomputer

servers & terminals

Portables

Wide-area global

ATM network

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment

Person

servers

(PCs)

ATM & Ethernet:

to PC, workstation,

& servers

scalable computers built from PCs & SANs

Telecomputers

aka Internet Terminals

???

Centralized

& departmental

servers built from

PCs

TC=TV+PC

home ...

(CATV or ATM

or satellite)

scaling dimensions include
Scaling dimensions include:
  • reliability… including always up
  • number of nodes
    • most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
    • highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node
  • location within a region or continent
  • time-scale I.e. machine generations
san standard interconnect

RIP

FDDI

RIP

ATM

RIP

FC

RIP

SCI

RIP

?

RIP

SCSI

SAN: Standard Interconnect

Gbps Ethernet:

110 MBps

  • LAN faster than memory bus?
  • 1 GBps links in lab.
  • 100$ port cost soon
  • Port is computer

PCI:

70 MBps

UW SCSI:

40 MBps

FW SCSI: 20 MBps

SCSI: 5 MBps

basic argument for x disks
Basic Argument for x-Disks
  • Future disk controller is a super-computer.
    • 1 bips processor
    • 128 MB dram
    • 100 GB disk plus one arm
  • Connects to SAN via high-level protocols
    • RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,….
    • Commands are RPCs
    • management, security,….
    • Services file/web/db/… requests
    • Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev environment
  • Move apps to disk to save data movement
    • need programming environment in controller
commercial nt clusters
“Commercial” NT Clusters
  • 16-node Tandem Cluster
    • 64 cpus
    • 2 TB of disk
    • Decision support
  • 45-node Compaq Cluster
    • 140 cpus
    • 14 GB DRAM
    • 4 TB RAID disk
    • OLTP (Debit Credit)
      • 1 B tpd (14 k tps)
tandem oracle nt
Tandem Oracle/NT
  • 27,383 tpmC
  • 71.50 $/tpmC
  • 4 x 6 cpus
  • 384 disks=2.7 TB
loki pentium clusters for science http loki www lanl gov
Loki: Pentium Clusters for Sciencehttp://loki-www.lanl.gov/

16 Pentium Pro Processors

x 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces

+ 2 Gbytes RAM

+ 50 Gbytes Disk

+ 2 Fast Ethernet switches

+ Linux…………………...

= 1.2 real Gflops for $63,000

(but that is the 1996 price)

Beowulf project is similar

http://cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/people/becker/beowulf.html

  • Scientists want cheap mips.
our tax dollars at work asci for stockpile stewardship
Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro

LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)

LNL/Cray: ?

Maui Supercomputer Center

512x1 SP2

Our Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
ncsa cluster
NCSA Cluster
  • The National Center for Supercomputing ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois @ Urbana
  • 500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks, SAN
  • Compaq + HP +Myricom
  • A Super Computer for 3M$
  • Classic Fortran/MPI programming
  • NT + DCOM programming model
4 b pc s 1 bips 1gb dram 10 gb disk 1 gbps net b g the bricks of cyberspace
4 B PC’s (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps Net, B=G)The Bricks of Cyberspace
  • Cost 1,000 $
  • Come with
    • NT
    • DBMS
    • High speed Net
    • System management
    • GUI / OOUI
    • Tools
  • Compatible with everyone else
  • CyberBricks
some tera byte databases

Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

Some Tera-Byte Databases
  • The Web: 1 TB of HTML
  • TerraServer 1 TB of images
  • Several other 1 TB (file) servers
  • Hotmail: 7 TB of email
  • Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked
  • EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
    • 15 PB by 2007
  • Federal Clearing house: images of checks
    • 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)
  • Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program
    • 10 Exabytes (???!!)
info capture

A letter

Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

A novel

Info Capture

A Movie

  • You can record everything you see or hear or read.
  • What would you do with it?
  • How would you organize & analyze it?

Library of Congress (text)

LoC (image)

All Disks

Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h)

Audio 30 TB (10KB/s)

Read/write: 8 GB (words)

See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html

All Tapes

slide58

A letter

A novel

Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

A Movie

LoC (text)

LoC (sound + cinema)

LoC (image)

All Disks

All Photos

All Tapes

All Information!

now how do you find or use the rich information
Now how do you find or use the rich information

Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

smartmedia technologies
SmartMedia Technologies

Context Relevance

Image Recognition for Objects

Speech Recognition

Image Recognition, Lexical Cues

Transcripts

Close Caption

Lexical Analysis

Viewing

Color

Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork

B&W

Brightness

Contrast

Volume

Speech-Music

Meta Information

telepresence being there while being here at another time and with time scaling
Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling
  • Telepresentations
  • Telemeetings
  • The “work”
motivation telepresentations
Motivation:Telepresentations
  • Presenter and/or audience telepresent
  • NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
    • Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way

telepresentation elements
TelepresentationElements
  • Slides
  • Audio
  • Video
  • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
telepresentations the essentials
Telepresentations:The Essentials
  • Slide and audio a must
  • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good
  • Storage and transmission costs low
telepresentations the killer app
Telepresentations:The Killer App
  • Increased attendance & lower travel costs
  • Practical and low-cost NOW
  • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
today s experiment
Today’sExperiment
  • Would you like to pause, rewind, browse?
  • Do you wish you could have seen this
    • At home?
    • At another time?
  • How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?
telework it takes screens sound and bandwidth stupid
Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

by april 1 2001 videophones will ship in 50 of the pcs and be in use
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

teleworking cw 9 1 97
Teleworking CW 9/1/97
  • 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk
  • 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc.
  • Are telecommuters more productive?
    • 30% yes
    • 50% same
    • 4% no
    • 16% don’t know
  • Are telecommuters more accessible?
    • 13% yes
    • 40% same
    • 40% no
    • 7% don’t know
telepresence
Telepresence

hold a meeting of type, m

university or technical course

interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,

with p, distributed persons

with as much interactivity and feeling

such that people prefer being telepresent

meetings are provably more productive

meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

soho small office home office network computing environment
SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

POTS (legacy services)

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute

LAN

PC

NC*

PC

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

...

Phone

Phone

Phone

problems of living working in cyberspace socio vs technical
Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical
  • Isolation & loneliness
    • need for communication/stimulation
    • chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
    • loss of group/teamwork skills
    • danger of becoming “terminal”
  • interruptions & focus
  • lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
  • supervision and ability to have 1:1
  • unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with people
a people model who wants to be in cyberspace
A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?

Spock

formal(in writing)

Self-control

informal(verbal)

Sally Field

Analyticals.. being right, detailed

analretentives

Drivers…results orient.

megalo-maniacs

Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)

2D Model

broadcast- push

email

Expressives...want recognition, need contact

psychotics

Amiables…consensusbuilders

spinelesswimps

--------------chat----------------

Intensity

Souter Evangelism Swaggert