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  1. Directly observing boundary layer trajectories in the Eastern Amazon A Pilot Study David R. Fitzjarrald, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY Paul Voss, Smith College, Northhampton MA Júlia C. P. Cohen, Universidad Federal de Pará, Belém, PA, Brasil Luiz Machado, InstitutoNacional de PesquisasEspaciais,São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil dfitzjarrald@albany.edu

  2. Following the wind… Applications Atmospheric diffusion Identifying air mass origin/modification

  3. Transport studies suffer from limited observational data bases to test with…

  4. (HYSPLIT) reanalysis-based trajectories used even for case studies Estimating N2O transports…D’Amelia et al. (2009)

  5. Example: following trajectories into the Orinico Basin , Venezuela The authors doubt the importance of precipitation recycling for the Orinoco Basin. (study conducted using reanalysis data.) E - P < 0 E – P > 0 Fig. 2 Annual average values of E – P (period 2000–2004) for all the particles bound for the Orinoco River basin. … Aggregated values for the first 10 days are shown (i10).

  6. What are the sources of uncertainty in model-derived trajectories? What kind of observations would be useful (or used)?

  7. Paul Voss, Smith College, MA developed CMET

  8. Challenges We are still learning how to take advantage of this new tool. How can one use the substantial derivative D/Dt? Water vapor recycling CO2 net exchange Air mass modification

  9. CMET in México: Voss et al. (2010)MILAGRO Project

  10. Voss et al. (2010) MILAGRO CMET balloons follow Mexico City pollution plume Priofiles

  11. Our dream: Launch a fleet of CMET into the Amazon Basin low-level inflow. (On to Bolivia!) Our reality: Two CMET balloons brought into Brazil (CHUVA-Belém project) for a pilot study. Watch them crash into the Tocantins River (On to Oblivion!) but not quite…

  12. ETA reanalysis, P gradients in monthly mean flows are very small. 1000.6 1000.4 Belém Rainy season 1012. One suspicion: Strong transient/periodic influences • storm-related pressure gradients. • river breeze circulations 1011 Belém Dry season

  13. CHUVA-Belém June 2011 Belém São Miguel Tomé-Açu Mesoscale triangle..

  14. Two CMET balloons arrive in Belém…

  15. Preparing for the launches. Forward trajectories from Tomé-Açu. T - 2 weeks—6/6/2011. (S. Freitas, USP)

  16. Tomé-AçuPará, Brasil 24/6/2011 Gandu Machado yakisoba

  17. Conventional Sounding, Projeto CHUVA Tomé-Açu Q q zi Standard CBL… 23/6/2011 0Z (9 pm LT)

  18. Preparing CMET #1

  19. Júlia Cohen Luiz Machado Paul Voss Velho gringo Entire team in one image…

  20. 06 UT (6/25) 12 UT Q q T Tomé-Açu launch day 18 UT 00 UT (6/26) Wind shear owing to the MCC To the south of Tomé-Açu

  21. 25/6/2011 12Z Sounding compared with CMET #1 (green)

  22. Modelled Observed Modeled trajectories confused by MCC to the south. CMET trajectories are quasi-Lagrangian.

  23. Detour?

  24. The life of balloon 1

  25. Baloon #1 Daytime launch Vital signs on board… Battery voltage altitude pump Dp between ‘tank’ and envelope

  26. modeled trajectory differs from the controlled balloon trajectory …

  27. Balloon #1 catches downdraft, crashes into the Tocantins River

  28. Sounding before CMET #2

  29. Using the wind shear… Changing altitude to avoid southern flight Balloon #2 entered Tocantins River

  30. Baloon #2 Profiles… Almost didn’t escape the stratus deck…

  31. Situation just before balloon #2 fell to earth…

  32. trajectories Modeled before launch The 2 CMET ended up in the Tocantins River, separated by only 7 km

  33. Mesoscale pressure gradient killed the forecast… 26/06/08Z Tomé-Açu

  34. BRAMS simulation (Júlia Cohen, UFPa) • 36 hour integration • 3 km horizontal grid • # of grid points: (x, y, z): (185,148,45) • explicit rain using cloud physics parameterization • radiation parameterizations long-wave: Chen & Cotton; short-wave: Harrington

  35. Model fields, launch time for CMET #1

  36. Model fields, launch time for CMET #2

  37. X X X X X X

  38. Looks great! (but this is for a trajectory in the PBL…)

  39. CMET #1 & #2 recovered! “The most valuable fish I ever caught.” Address, phone, UFPa Paul Voss receiving balloon #2 April 2012

  40. After recovery At launch time Problem 0 PV = n R T

  41. Brasil and in general: • developing CMET CO2, O3, ??? Our team: • Application: Air mass modification (q, CO2) for low-level inflow into Amazonia. Hope springs eternal: Future plans Belém do Pará 30 June 2011

  42. Final words

  43. Sherlock Holmes: "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” "É um erro capital teorizar antes de teros dados.” - Fonte: Um escândalonaBoêmia (1891-92) - A Scandal in Bohemia "It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” "Elimineoimpossível, eoquerestar, pormaisimprovávelquepareça, deve ser verdade.” - Fonte: O signo dos quatro - The Sign of Four (1890)

  44. Thanks for support CHUVA Project Office, Brasil (MCT) Federal University of Pará, Brasil Travel, expenses within Brasil, great colleagues. Spicer Art Conservation, LLC RT Travel to Brasil from US of A tucano Tower! sloths Harpy eagle Macaw/arara Modeling in noodle dough, 2012. Emerald tree boa jaguar dolphins fish anteater jeep Vision of the Amazon rainforest 3rd Grade, Voorheesville Elementary School, New York USA