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Impact of Climate Change on Flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 USA gstakle@iastate.edu Project collaborators: Manoj Jha, Zaitao Pan, Roy Gu. 9th Annual GHP meeting , GKSS, Geesthacht , Germany, Sept. 22-26, 2003.

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impact of climate change on flow in the upper mississippi river basin

Impact of Climate Change on Flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Eugene S. Takle

Iowa State University

Ames, IA 50011 USA

gstakle@iastate.edu

Project collaborators:

Manoj Jha, Zaitao Pan, Roy Gu

9th Annual GHP meeting, GKSS, Geesthacht, Germany, Sept. 22-26, 2003

slide2

If we have perfect predictability of global fields, how well can we downscale this predictability to stream flow at one point?

outline
Outline
  • Domain and hydrological model (SWAT)
  • Calibration and validation
  • Observations -> stream flow
  • NNR -> RCM -> SWAT-> stream flow
  • GCM -> RCM -> SWAT-> stream flow
  • GHG -> GCM -> RCM -> SWAT -> stream flow
  • Stream flow vs. precipitation

For details see: Jha, M., Z. Pan, E. S. Takle, and R. Gu, 2003:

Impacts of climate change on stream flow in the Upper Mississippi

River Basin: A regional climate model perspective. Accepted by

Journal of Geophysical Research.

slide4

Sub-Basins of the

Upper Mississippi

River Basin

119 sub-basins

Outflow measured

at Grafton, IL

Approximately one

observing station

per sub-basin

Approximately one

model grid point

per sub-basin

soil water assessment tool swat
Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
  • Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model (Arnold et al,1998)
  • Daily time steps
  • Assesses impacts of climate and management on yields of water, sediment, and agricultural chemicals
  • Physically based, including hydrology, soil temperature, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides and land management
slide7

Calibration of SWAT:

Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL

slide8

Calibration of SWAT:

Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL

slide9

Validation of SWAT:

Annual Stream Flow at Grafton, IL

slide10

Validation of SWAT:

Monthly Stream Flow at Grafton, IL

slide11

RegCM2 Simulation Domain

Red = global model grid point

Green/blue = regional model grid points

slide12

Annual Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT

Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate

Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions

slide13

Seasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT

Driven by the RegCM2 Regional Climate

Model with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions

slide14

Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by

the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model

with NNR Lateral Boundary Conditions

slide17

Without sufficient resolution,

it just doesn’t look right.

EST&LM

slide18

Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the RegCM2

Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2

Global Model Results for the Contemporary and

Future Scenario (2040s) Climate

slide19

Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by the

RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven

with HadCM2 Global Model Results for the

Contemporary and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate

slide21

Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under

Climate Change with Various Model Biases

slide22

Hydrologic Budget Components

Simulated by SWAT under Different Climates

All units are mm

Yield is sum of surface runoff, lateral flow, and groundwater flow

slide24

Regression Analysis:

Stream Flow vs. Precipitation