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presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3 rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001

Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) National Climate Program CZECH REPUBLIC. presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3 rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001.

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presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3 rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001

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  1. Research & Systematic Observations (IX)Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII)National Climate ProgramCZECH REPUBLIC presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001

  2. Parts VII and IX of the 3.NC National Climate Program (establ. 1990) • improve scientific cooperation on national level • 1st national project 1991-1992 • US Country Study Programme 1993-1996 • several small projects supported by Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Academy of Sci., Charles University, Czech Grant Agency, etc. • Decisions 14/CP.4, 5/CP.5 • preparatory phase of new national project 1999 • 2nd national project 2000-2001(Science&Research Project) • focused on IPCC TAR and 3rd NC

  3. 1999-2001(Science&Research Project) Climate Science, Data Regional Scenario Variability, Extrems Observations Hydrology Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Agriculture Forestry Human Health

  4. Climate models – nodal point positions C - CGCM1, CS - CSIRO, E - ECHAM4, H - HadCM2, NC - NCAR3, SR - CCSR

  5. Model validyHadCM2 Tmean

  6. Regional Climate Change Scenarios • IPCC DDC • downscaling • temperature - 2030 • increase by • spring 1.0 oC, summer 1.6 oC, autumn 1.2 oC, winter 0.9 oC, year 1.2 oC • precipitation – 2030 • increase by 3-8% • predominantly in winter

  7. Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)

  8. Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)

  9. Number of days with daily minimum air temperature below given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

  10. Number of days with daily maximum air temperature above given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

  11. Hydrology and Water Resources • effects on streamflow, groundwater recharge, runoff, water quality • temperature increase by 2oC ~ streamflow reduction by 10-15% due to evaporation • flood magnitude and frequency in some regions • water quality degradation • potable water production and consumption

  12. Hydrology and Water Resources • adaptation • water resource management techniques • effective use of water • trade with water • reduction of water shrinkage • water use reduction in industry, energy, agriculture sectors and households • part of State Environmental Policy • sustainable development

  13. Agriculture • crop yield respons to climate change • shift to more thermophilic crops • effect of plant heat stress (extreme temperature events) • less moisture in growing season • heavy rain periods (june, september) erosion • crop modelling assessment

  14. Agriculture • modelled climate change effect • CO2 increase: corn +24%, wheat +33% • T + CO2 increase: corn +16%, wheat +31% • adaptation • agrotechnical management • adjustment to planting dates • fertilization rates • irrigation applications • selections of plants, species

  15. Forestry • 22% of territory covered by forests (spruce 54%, pine 18%) • climate change effects on forests • dry stress • combined effects (air temperature + soil moisture + local air quality) • adaptation • change of tree species, shift to foliate trees, integrated forest protection • changed forest management

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