Meeting on Year-Round / Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Forecasting and Outreach April 24, 2003

1. EPA-Funded Activities Designed to Assist Regional/State/Local Agencies with Year-Round Air Quality Forecasting Meeting on Year-Round / Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Forecasting and Outreach April 24, 2003

2. Year-Round Air Quality Forecasting Assistance • EPA is encouraging Regional/State/Local agencies to issue year-round Air Quality Index (AQI) forecasts beginning October 1, 2003. • Address public health concern regarding fine particles • Support media partners with complete description of AQ • In some cases, the creation/maintenance of an year-round AQ forecast program will involve a significant new resource investment in staff &/or contractual assistance. • EPA goal in FY 2003: Fund activities designed to assist R/S/L agencies in conducting year-round forecasting • To the extent possible, attempt to minimize the impact on R/S/L resources • $600K (~) of EPA FY2002/2003 funds set aside for forecasting assistance

3. Year-Round Air Quality Forecasting Assistance • Short Course on Air Quality Forecasting • Guidelines for Developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program • 2003 PM2.5 Forecasting Project (aka 22 city project) • Data collection, QA, and analysis • Development of local climatologies / conceptual models • Development of forecasting tools (e.g., regression, CART, etc.) • Daily PM2.5 forecasting • Development PM2.5 Forecast Assistant web site • Regional forecaster training workshops • Potential for additional support beyond October 2003 • Additional cities added to FY 2003 effort? • Advanced AQ forecasting course @ 2004 National AQ Conference? • Partnership w/ NOAA to conduct numerical AQ forecasting

4. PM Forecasting: Background Information • Many groups are already forecasting PM2.5 (year-round) as part of their routine activities. • Forecasting panel discussion will report outcome of questionnaire with eight institutions w/ active PM2.5 forecast programs (re: resources, etc.) • What is needed • Continuous & historical PM2.5 monitoring data • Trained staff w/ experience in forecasting air quality • Forecasting tools; or at least an understanding of local PM2.5 formation processes (how it relates to meteorology, time of year, etc.) • Software that facilitates forecast development, transfer, archival, etc.

5. Short Course on Air Quality Forecasting • Goal: Conduct a 1-day interactive session designed to provide an overview of the steps that are necessary to generate a successful air quality forecasting program, with a particular emphasis on PM2.5 forecasting. Topics included: • meteorological basics, • relationships between meteorology and air quality, • what it will take to transition from ozone to PM2.5 forecasting, • 10 steps to issuing an air quality forecast, etc. • February 2, 2002 -- San Antonio, TX • Over 100 participants; feedback extremely positive • Course workbook is available: • http://www.epa.gov/airnow/2003conference/aq.html

6. Guidelines for Developing an Air Quality (Ozone and PM2.5) Forecasting Program • Goal: Provide “guidance to help air quality agencies develop, operate, and evaluate ozone and PM2.5 forecasting programs.” Topics include: • description of processes affecting AQ concentrations • forecasting applications • development of forecast methods • major steps in developing an AQ forecasting program • Draft Final Report completed in January 2003 • distributed at National Air Quality Conference • currently being reviewed by a selected panel of experienced R/S/L forecasters • final guidance expected in Summer 2003

7. 2003 PM2.5 Forecasting Project: Overview • Goal: Begin to develop the foundation for year-round PM2.5 forecasting within several U.S. cities, with an eye towards transferring the resultant data/technology to the R/S/L agencies. • 7 Steps in Developing a PM2.5 Forecasting Program: • Collect, Develop, QA/QC historical met. & ambient PM2.5 dataset • Develop climatological understanding of local PM2.5 situation • Develop conceptual model of local PM2.5 situation • Develop forecasting tools (qualitative, statistical, box models, etc.) • Develop software to implement forecasting method(s) • Conduct and evaluate forecasts • Reassess conceptual models and tools, as necessary

8. 2003 PM2.5 Forecasting Project: Overview • Conduct PM2.5 forecasting for 22 USA Today cities • Forecasting conducted from January-April 2003. • No public notification of forecasts (“offline” forecasts) • 22 cities (from original 36 USA Today cities) were chosen based on several criteria: • Severity of the local PM2.5 problem • Availability of real-time PM2.5 monitoring data • Availability of historical PM2.5 monitoring data • Established fine PM / ozone forecasting program? • Economy of scale areas (e.g., Cleveland/Detroit) • Group A: (Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Pittsburgh, Sacramento, Washington D.C.) • Group B: (Boston, Chicago, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Memphis, Nashville, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, St. Louis)

9. 2003 PM2.5 Forecasting Project: Overview Initial products are available at: http://www.airnowdata.org/pm25forecasting/index.html

10. Development of PM2.5 Forecast Assistant Software • Goal: “ ... allow State and Local air quality agency forecasters to quickly produce an accurate forecast on a daily basis.” • ready access to past/present observational data (aligned w/ the DMC); • easy storage of user-defined, key forecast links; • can include built-in, as well as user-developed, forecasting tools; • will allow for easy export of forecast to multiple endusers; • is intended to serve as “one-stop shopping” for R/S/L staff forecasters. • The design specification document and some initial testing has been completed. • Expect to have system available for R/S/L beta-testing by late-summer.

11. Regional Forecaster Training Workshops • Goal: Transfer forecast knowledge gained through 2003 PM2.5 Forecasting Project and other activities to R/S/L agencies • Initial plans called for 4 hands-on, regional-specific workshops to be held across the U.S. during the summer of 2003 • R/S/L feedback • summer sessions would be inconvenient for agencies involved with ozone forecasting • R/S/L feedback also indicated that travel budgets could significantly limit number of workshop participants • More information tomorrow during panel discussion. • The format, agenda, timing, and location of the workshops are still being discussed • Would like to use this forum to incorporate R/S/L ideas into the development process

12. Additional Year-Round Forecasting Support beyond October 2003 • Goal: Maintain infrastructure to facilitate on-going R/S/L forecasting • Meet completeness needs of media partners • Budgets are not finalized, but expect to be able to fund additional support activities similar to FY2003, but on a smaller scale • 2004 National AQ Conference & Forecasting Short Course • Initiate forecast program development for a new set of locations (probably less than 5-10 areas). • Perhaps 1-2 additional hands-on workshops? • Continuing to work with NOAA re: Grid Model Forecasting • Eastern U.S. ozone modeling this summer • National ozone/PM2.5 modeling to evolve over the next decade

13. Conclusions • Considerable progress has been made in developing the foundations for successful year-round forecasting programs; particularly for the “22 cities” • creation of AQ databases • forecast method development • software intended to facilitate forecast development • Several forums have been provided in which less experienced forecasters can learn from and/or exchange ideas with more experienced forecasters. • Despite these efforts to facilitate the process, the switch to year-round forecasting will require an additional investment on the part of R/S/L agencies for those that do not already have such programs in place.