1 / 25

Automotive Market Trends 2014: Black Book Analysis

Stay informed with the latest trends in the automotive market for 2014 as analyzed by Black Book. From car segment changes to depreciation expectations and volume affects, delve into the factors influencing vehicle values. Discover forecasts, insights on gas prices impact, incentive strategies, and residual forecasting. Learn why certain vehicle segments are expected to outperform the market and how the industry is adapting to changing demands.

marnie
Download Presentation

Automotive Market Trends 2014: Black Book Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. One nightclub at a time. And the best one is here in Birmingham! February 20-22, 2014

  2. Is the market one big Brrrrr! February 18, 2014

  3. Is the market one big Brrrrr? • Holidays and Southern Snow • Does everything happen on Wednesday? • Other than the values the primary topic has been the weather • Recent survey report: “the sale started late, cars were out of order and it just wasn’t the typical organization.” • What does this do to the values? • Creates a 2000 unit auction, almost double normal run list • Black Book tracks the variables as well as the block bidding

  4. Car Segment Changes January 10-Jan -78 17-Jan-58 24-Jan-72 31-Jan-48 February 7-Feb -43 14-Feb -47 21-Feb-40 yr ago 2/15/2013 -18

  5. Car Segment Changes • SCC & ELC: Most consistent and stable • It is what it is, transportation • 3 week avg: -$21 & -$19 • 6 week avg: -$28 & -$24 • PLC: larger $ change, • 6 week avg: -$107 • PSC: Just not sports car weather • 6 week avg: -$145

  6. Truck Segment Changes January 10-Jan -55 17-Jan-55 24-Jan-64 31-Jan-44 February 7-Feb -49 14-Feb-38 21-Feb-67 (we feel a temporary change) yr ago 2/15/2013 -19 Both improving as weeks pass, but not as strong or stable as last year

  7. Truck Segment Changes • FVW & FVC: most stable and consistent • 3 week avg: -$10 • FSU: truck based 4x4 doing well • 3 week avg: -$12 • LSU & FXU: largest $ movement • 3 week avg: -$109 & -$90 • CXU: volume units and very competitive • 3 week avg: -$56

  8. Volume Affects Depreciation Expectations

  9. Looking Back at 2013 • Depreciation levels driven by increasing used inventory 2 – 6 Year Olds Annual 2014 Prediction: -13.5%

  10. Looking Back at 2013 • Hybrids/Electrics Spread is closing in all mixes! $2398 $1748 $1416

  11. Looking Back at 2013 • New car sales – 15.6M: 1 million growth over 2012 • New Lease penetration continued through year-end • EOT Lease Returns continued to grow: consider as part of new car trade-ins • A change in the trade-in mix • Older Trades: • Pre-recession 2 – 4 years • 2011 & 2012 8 – 11 years • Second half 2013 3 – 4 & 8 – 11 years • Lending growth continued supporting new and used sales • Buying deeper, greater LTVs and longer terms • Value trends used more for risk analysis

  12. Looking Ahead • New Vehicle Sales: Less Growth • 16,056,123 • Off-Lease Volume: part of the trade-in count • Only about 30K more trades yr over yr • About 3.1M total EOT • Slight increase in rental turn-ins with retail sales joining the mix • ??? How many will make it to the physical auction?

  13. Looking Ahead • Gas price impact • Next 2 months – expect by $.25 to $.30 per gallon • Highs of $3.75 to $3.85 in 2014 • 2013 averaged $3.49, 2012 was $3.65 Wide gap gas/diesel

  14. Looking Ahead • Incentives: • Cash on the hood • Lease focused • Payment spread new to used • Back to pre-recession differences • Residual forecasting • Hybrid and EV retention vs. gas models in 2014 • Need is for more accurate or additional residual forecasting to help lenders spot the right opportunities • Continued truck segment strength • Entry Level and Compact Cars: Not overly optimistic

  15. Full Size Pickup Trucks $ End $ Start $ Change % Change Overall market change: -7.7% -12.4% -12.8%

  16. Compact Pickup Trucks

  17. Mid-Size Pickup Trucks Overall market change: -7.7% -12.4% -12.8%

  18. Why the FPT have and will do better than the market? • Factors: • Economy: construction within the commercial and residential markets, and service industry demand • Supplies/Volumes • Gas Prices • Revised Models • Increasing average used pricing • Forecast: • Jan 2014/Jan 2015 overall: -13.5% • FPT forecast: -9.0% to -10.5%

  19. Entry Level Cars Overall market change: -7.7% -12.4% -12.8%

  20. Compact Cars

  21. Why these expectations? • New market is artificially forced volumes • CAFÉ requirements: 34.5/54.5MPG • Current and short term gas prices • Revised models of mid-size cars • Close to same mpg • More size and comfort • Forecast: • Jan 2014/Jan 2015 overall: -13.5% • ELC: -15.5% to -16.5% • SCC: -14.5% to -16.0%

  22. Questions?

  23. Just call or email Tim West 770.533.5230 • TWest@BlackBookUSA.com Ricky Beggs 770.533.5221 RBeggs@BlackBookUSA.com

More Related